We are almost reaching the point where it becomes possible to get a decent read on most teams across the country. While obviously things can and will change dramatically over the course of February and March, certain things are becoming evident. For example, North Carolina has some pretty substantial backcourt woes (yet remain ranked this week in the AP - seriously, someone give me a ballot...). The PAC-10 is on a collision course for a maximum of two bids. The Atlantic 10, if it's top four can hold off middle-of-the-packers GW, Charlotte and Richmond, will likely double the Pac-10's bid total and snag four. The MVC and CAA are going to cannibalize each other, so might the Big 12 and Big 10 to some extent. Pitt is legit, Nova and the 'Cuse are in the same top-spot mix, and four through eleven the BEast is going to be delightfully scrappy. These things seem pretty self-evident.
So what about some of the larger, and drastically under-reported question marks? We know that's why you read us here at MarchManiacs.com (and a big thank you, b.t.w.), so let me oblige you with five teams worth watching over the next two weeks, to see if we can answer some of the big questions.
1. Virginia - If you claim to have had the Cavs as the ACC's only unbeaten squad three weeks into conference play, you are lying. The coaches had them twelfth. As in dead last. Yet, at 3-0 the Cavaliers sit at the top of the heap and that should at least merit them entre' into the Big Dance discussion. SO, are the Cavs legit?
Season Highs & Lows: This is a team that was blown out by South Florida, and lost to Stanford, Penn State and Auburn before Christmas. Since then, they have beaten UAB, Georgia Tech, NC State, and Miami; all by no less than eight points.
Litmus Test: Over the next two weeks the Cavs travel to Wake and Carolina and host in-state rival Virginia Tech. There are no gimmes in the ACC (particularly with the Cavs having taken themselves off the list). Win 2 of 3, and it is time to talk tourney. Drop all three? Expect the Cavs to drop back towards the bottom of the standings and miss post-season play.
Maniac's Take: I'm still not sold on Virginia, though the margin of their three conference wins have to open eyes. They are playing noticeably tougher, intense man-to-man defense and are not going to be anyone's "easy" win from here on out. That said, I'm not ready to put them in the tourney quite yet, but also not ready to dismiss them. The upcoming two week stretch is going to be an interesting one, particularly if they can just go 1-2. That's enough for them to remain in play. Another bonus for the Cavs is they play Duke only once this season and the game is in Charlottesville.
2. Pitt - Is there any doubt Jamie Dixon is at the top of the National Coach of the Year ballot at this point of the season? Sitting at 5-0 with the three best road wins of any team in the country, what Pitt has accomplished after losing their three stars and team anchors is impressive. However, if you glance back to this same week in 2009, nearly everyone in the country was glamming Wake Forest and Dino Gaudio...Season Highs & Lows: The Texas loss early is nothing to be ashamed of, though they looked pretty uncompetitive and the loss to Indiana in MSG won't help come seeding time. The double-OT win over Duquesne saved the Panthers a second "bad loss." Since the calendar flipped to 2010, they have gone on the road to beat Syracuse, Cincinnati and Connecticut, as well as beating Louisville (in OT) at home.
Litmus Test: The BEast, because of the tremendous depth of good teams is often viewed as the nation's most competitive conference. While they may have more "good teams" than anyone else, they also have a good fistful of fluff. Because of the unbalanced slate a sixteen team league creates, schedule becomes important. The Panthers host G'Town Wednesday night. Win that, and they could legitimately be 9-0 in conference before facing their February gauntlet.
Starting Feb 12th, the Panthers face: West Virginia, @Marquette, Villanova, @Notre Dame. To me, that will be the real stretch that shows how deep of a threat this team is in March. It is hard to say the Panthers won't benefit from their conference schedule, they get WVU twice, but other double-ups are St. John's and Seton Hall.
Maniac's Outlook: It is getting hard to ignore these Panthers, but I can't help feel a bit about them like I felt about Marquette last season. Great wins, great record, but I just don't think they are a legit Final Four contender. That isn't to dismiss what they are doing this year, they are a tourney lock, and few had them even bubbling in 2010. However, regardless of my gut instinct, with the road wins they already have and the lack of more than a few tough road games remaining it is hard to envision Pitt not earning a Top 4 seed in March.
3. Vanderbilt - It seems like everyone forgot about the Commodores after their early season losses. However, the 'Dores are off to a 3-0 conference start, and while everyone is focusing on Kentucky and Tennessee (and earlier on Florida), Vandy appears to be a real threat in the SEC East.
Season Highs & Lows: The early loss to Cincy isn't a bad one, nor is the loss to Illinois. The loss to Western Kentucky won't help the profile, but likely doesn't assassinate it, assuming the Toppers remain in the RPI Top 100. Their quality wins over St. Mary's and Missouri help (and maybe Arizona?), and their conference start is impressive, beating Florida, and also Bama and South Carolina on the road.
Litmus Test: The 'Dores better stasy focused on Auburn at home this weekend, because next week features trips to Knoxville and Lexington. We will know a lot more about Vandy in two weeks.
Maniac's Outlook: I like this team. I think they make the NCAA tourney and I think the SEC gets five, possibly six bids this March. They would likely be the fifth or sixth, so early wins over Florida and South Carolina were HUGE. I'm not sure they will win either road contest coming up, but stealing one of the two (particularly Kentucky, who they always play tough) should get them on pretty safe ground for March.
4. Marshall - Perhaps no two-loss team in the country is more unknown than the Thundering Herd of Marshall. As of today, they are the only team in Division I with two or less losses not to receive more than single vote in the AP poll (LA Tech had seven, Rhode Island eleven). Little was expected of them in the improved Conference USA, and perhaps little is known about them either as they have yet to tackle any of the league's big boys. Of course that is going to change quickly, as you'll see in their "litmus test" below.Season Highs & Lows: Their loss to Old Dominion is no crime, neither is losing to UNC. But losing to Carolina by 37 probably doesn't help the perception that you are glaringly unready for prime time. Their best wins are @ UCF, Ohio and Lamar. So, um, yeah....
Litmus Test: Are the Herd any good? No one really knows yet, but we will. Oh yeah, we really will. How's this for a five game stretch: @West Virginia, UAB, Memphis, @Houston, @Tulsa. I'm not sure they win ANY of those five games, and if they do drop them all, I promise you will hear no more of the Thundering Herd on MM.com. However, win one and it is interesting to see where they land come conference tourney time. Win two? Win three?
Maniac's Outlook: Their seven-foot freshman Hassad Whiteside has potential that will bring the pro scouts to Huntington over and over again for the next few years. However, they are not quite ready to make the leap into top-tier C-USA consideration. Perhaps in years past this could be a third or fourth place team, but the improved depth of the conference makes it hard to see this team winning enough game to even snag an NIT bid.
5. Rhode Island - Speaking of two-loss teams that are nearly invisible in the polls, how about those Rams? The narrow home-loss to Temple hurt their national respect chances, but I think people are sleeping on a pretty good ballclub.
Season Highs & Lows: The Rams would love to have that two-point loss to VCU tilted the other way, as well as their only other blemish, their four point loss to Temple last week. Rhode Island does boast wins over Oklahoma State and Boston College. Other than that, the slate is pretty barren.
Litmus Test: Ask and ye shall receive. The Rams get to find out (and show all of us) what they are made of next week with back-to-back trips to Xavier and Dayton. Split those two and we can start talking NCAA bid. Drop them both? It gets dicey. Win both and they would absolutely deserve to move in to the Top25, if not the Top 20.
Maniac's Outlook: I championed the Rams last year, only to be embarrassed by their late season tailspin. However, I still think this team is in the field of 65 come March. I have a feeling they lose both at Xavier and at Dayton, but except for a trip to Temple and a tricky visit from Richmond, they could win out their remaining ten games from there. That would get the Rams to 25-5, 24-6 and likely a 10 or 11 seed in the Dance.
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