For our neophytes, a quick synopsis of the methodology employed here: 1. We do not care about the AP and coaches poll, wins and losses do not move you up or down a prescribed number of slots. 2. We do our best to weigh both performance, but also a little predictive nature as well, meaning not just what you have done, but also waht our eyes tell us you can do. 3. You are welcome to piss, moan and complain about our rankings. We enjoy the emails, and have learned several new creatives profanities from you. So, Mazel Tov, and Happy New Year.
Enjoy the decade's first edition of Bracketeering.
FINAL FOUR:
1. Texas - I definitely flirted with dropping the Horns this week after a few somnambulistic performances against UT Corpus Christi and Arkansas. However, don't most good team go through a few little lulls here and there, especially in games against lesser competition? What I do know is that when the big boys came to play, the Horns beat 'em by double digits. They win a lot of games late, if for no other reason than they have tremendous depth. The general fan is more familiar with the names on Kansas and Kentucky's rosters, but the Horns are ten deep, athletic and balanced. For now - they keep our top slot once again.
2. Kansas - Some people will overreact to the close call at home against Cornell, but not us. The Red are good. Even better? The stern test of the Jayhawks before the rigors of confere4nce play commence. It has been a long time since they were tested. It is good to find out who your Alpha Dog is before everything is on the line in March. And if there was any doubt, there is no longer. It's Sherron Collins. His numbers aren't spectacular; and therein lies his greatest strength on my POY ballot. He is assimilating all the talent available with aplomb, and gives them everything you want from a PG who will be contending for a National Title. So, yeah, I've come around on Collins.Oh, and the dismantling of a good Temple team on the road was as brilliant as a team has played this year. Not this team. Any team.
3. Purdue - I'm starting to really love this team. They share the ball better than any team in the nation, and remind me a lot of the 2006-2007 Gator squad. They have good players with clearly, and perfectly defined roles. They have NBA talent with Johnson, Hummel and E'Twan Moore. They have the best glue guy in country in Chris Kramer and have a functional bench. They are not more talented per se than our #4 team, but gut instict tells me they are a little better as a team.
This is a huge "show me" stretch coming up for the Boilers with a trip to the Kohl Center tomorrow (where the Badgers have already beaten Duke) and a visit from the once again Evan Turner-led Buckeyes on Tuesday. Win both? Final Four talk has to heat up beyond Boiling in West Lafayette.
4. Kentucky - Fourth? Last week I have them #2, they handle Louisville, I write a "Run the Table" column...and now drop them to fourth? It's not an indictment of the Cats, it's simply that Kansas and Purdue looked brilliant the past week, and the Cats are still a little more potential than polish. That said, with Wall and Cousins blossoming more every week, it is getting harder and harder to see this team not making the short drive to Indy this April. Think there'd be a few Cat fans there??
ELITE EIGHT:
5. Duke - I'm getting less and less gun shy about my take on the Devils everytime I see them play...but still have an ounce of trepidation after the way they eveaporated in conference play and the tourney. That said, they are number 5...and then there is a drop. I'd be comfortable with them in the Final Five is such a thing existed.Is there a classier act in college hoops than Coach K? The Dukies played a neutral court game with Iowa State in their annual tradition of bringing a game to a veteran player's hometown to play in front of friends and family. This time, John Scheyer did not disappoint, playing brilliantly and continuing his surprising First Team All-American campaign (and yes, he would have my vote once my ballot arrives....waiting...hmmm....)
6. Syracuse - Perhaps the loss to Pitt wasn't so bad in retrospect? We'll know more in a few weeks. What I do know, is that aside from that blip (where I thought Pitt just caught fire from behind the arc against the zone), they've looked like a Final Four caliber team. Great guard play, an All-American swingman in Wesley Johnson and some bangers underneath. Still love this team, and the bounce back win over Memphis shows me they are mentally tough as well.
7. West Virginia - Losing to Purdue is not a big deal. They should have lost to Marquette, but didn't. That said, this team has loads of talent and is dangerous. They are seventh, but I think I'd prefer to have them eighth, and leave the seventh slot open. There is that clear of a gap between the Top Six so far this season and the rest of the pack. Let's see if the 'Eers can maintain their focus and win two they should (Notre Dame and USF) before hosting Syracuse next weekend.
8.Kansas State - The Wildcats are just kind of hovering for the time being. I'm not sure they are the 8th best team in the country but am looking forward to getting a read on them this weekend with a trip to Missouri and a Tuesday visit from Texas A&M. Oh, and there's a little trip from Texas next weekend as well...
Sweet and lurking: The next tier
9. Michigan State - Is the run starting? It usually comes around February, until next thing you know, the Spartans are the dangerous #2 seed no one wants in their Region. The difference this year? They were as high as #2 in many national polls until a few early losses knocked them off the radar. The solid win over Wisconsin was impressive. Although there are no "gimmes" in the Big Ten (save for Iowa) their next seven games are all realistically "should wins" with the possible exception of a trip to Minnesota. Expect the Spartans to be right in the thivk of the Big Ten race when an exciting pair of games with Purdue rolls around this February.
10. Ole Miss - Maybe a little high considering the two losses are to upper echelon Big East teams, Villanova and West Virginia, which could suggest they are not a top tier team. Their inside play is uneven at best and not always pretty to watch. However, the old axiom that guard play wins in the tourney bodes well for Ole Miss who boasts the most underrated backcourt in the country.
11. Villanova - Wow, it seems like the #11 hole is where we weekly bury the upcoming prospects of some unsuspecting mid-major. Last edition we offered Temple up to the basketball Gods, only to have them sacrificed on the Jayhawks alter. This week, we flirted with a few of our mid-major darlings, but were compelled to concede the spot belongs to Villanova. I think it is becoming my silent accidental bias, but I am just never sold on these guys, despite the tourney success every year with Scottie Reynolds and Jay Wright. I am curious to see how they handle a visit from tough luck 1-2 Marquette and their trip to Louisville on Tuesday.
12. Connecticut - They have three losses by a combined total of fourteen points. The losses: Duke, Kentucky and at Cincinnati. They have a few holes, but much like Carolina I would be fearful of this team in March. They have one of the highest ceilings of any Big East team.
13. Northern Iowa - Yeah, I'm aware they are unranked in the polls. That's because most voters don't realize that good basketball happens outside the Big Six conferences, Memphis and Gonzaga. The Missouri Valley is consistently incredibly balanced and good. The Panthers are 4-0 in league play with wins over three of the top challengers (all by comfortable margins); Southern Illinois, Creighton and Missouri State. They have a tricky trip to Illinois State tomorrow (which I have probably effectively hexed them in...)
14. Wake Forest - I'm not sure why we all collectively forgot about the Deac's heading into this season. Sure, they miss early entries Johnson and Teague, but still have All-American candidate Al-Farouq Aminu dominating the paint. Admittedly this spot could have just as easily gone to Miami, Florida State, North Carolina (who I refuse to give up on!) and possibly even Virginia Tech. However, I give Wake the nod after completing a month without a loss that included wins over Gonzaga, NC State, Richmond and Xavier.The Demon Deacons have a tough stretch with a trip to Miami tomorrow, a visit from Maryland Tuesday, then consecutive trips to Durham and Chapel Hill.
So in all likliehood, we have also put a well-timed hex on Wake! That said, go 2-2, and life is fine. Emerge 3-1 and this spot is more than well earned; it's too low.
15. Gonzaga - We are officially absolving them for the Duke disaster, figuring they are not the first or the last team to get humiliated on a bad day against the Dukies. They followed it up by winning at Oklahoma and at Illinois. Let's see how they handle the next, and most difficult remaining, stretch of the season: AT Portland tomorrow, AT St Mary's on Tuesday and AT San Diego next weekend. Win those three and they grab the improved WCC by the throat and can begin focusing on earning a Top 4 seed for March. Goodness knows they've played the schedule to merit it.
16. Rhode Island - Last week we honored USC with our final slot. They rewarded us by sacrificing their hoops program to save Pete Carrol's Golden Goose and banned themselves from post season play. So from here on in, they are similarly banned from Bracketeering. If you aren't going to the Big Dance, then just go away.
This edition's beneficiary? How about the Rams? They are 12-1, and are playing in the Nation's sixth best conference. Yes, the A-10 is clearly better than the Pac-10. Get over it BCS honks.
This Sunday's Temple v. Rhode Island game is one of the first real gems of many in A-10 conference play. After Temple, they get a few easier tests before back-to-back roadies at Xavier and Dayton to end Januaury. By then we'll have a pretty good read on how the A-10 is going to shake out. For now, we give the Rams the nod, but acknowledge Temple, Dayton and Xavier could all win the league, and expect some pressure from Richmond and maybe even Charlotte and George Washington.
Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal is a disaster, I've all but given up on the Bears. Oklahoma is approaching that status as well. Seton Hall seemed formidable but is 0-3 in BEast play and is certainly on the ropes. Xavier is disappointing at 9-5, but have taken very few bad losses. They are a 4 or 5 game win streak away from being relevant again. Butler is not in terrible shape, but needs to win their league more than they have in year's past after an unimpressive and uneven non-conference performance.
Is it fair to label Portland a disappointment? Consider that if not for an avalanche of early attention from beating UCLA (who we now know sucks out loud), and a injury/suspension ridden Minnesota team, would anyone have really cared much about the Pilots? Either way, after expectations heightened they responded with losses to Portland State, Idaho, Washington and Nevada. They are not an at-large team anymore, and will need to upset Gonzaga tomorrow to have any life left in their fading chances.
It isn't fair to label these two teams a bust, but I am sure Northwestern and Ohio State were hoping for better conference starts. The good news for Ohio State is Evan Turner's back in plenty of time to save the season. Unfortunately for NW, Kevin Coble is nowhere in sight and things are looking bleak for ending the most famous tourney drought in the country.
Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
I usually just list the teams you may not have heard of, this week we include a few more teams from power conferences that have a good chance to contend for a bid. My near-locks are bolded. Teams that are strong enough that they could mess things up by losing the conference tourney and swiping a possible at-large are italicized.
Miami, Florida State, Pitt, Louisville, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Vermont, Richmond, Xavier, Dayton, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Northern Colorado, Denver, Marquette, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Coastal Carliona, Baylor, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, William & Mary, Old Dominion, UAB, Tulsa, Memphis, Butler, Cornell, Harvard, Siena, BYU, San Diego State, UNLV, New Mexico, Murray State, Washington, Washington State, Tennessee, Florida, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Western Carolina, Texas San-Antonio, St. Mary's, Louisiana Tech (though very doubtful they snag an at-large judging by historical WAC results)
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