Grading the Draft - Picks 1-5

First off - drafting is an inexact science. There are NO guarantees. And complicating matters, this is a draft of "potential" I think Vitale said that once or twice last night, didn't he??

When it comes to college basketball players, the only guarantees are Jay Bilas gushing about someone's "tremendous length" and Stephen A. Smith screaming about something, usually not factually or contextually relevant to the discussion. With that said, here are the Maniac's early draft grades.

Chicago Bulls - Derrick Rose #1
Grade: A

Tough to argue this pick. Hometown kid, solid decision maker at the point, great leadership abilities, goos strength and scoring ability, able defender. Good pick.

Best case scenario: Derron Williams meets Jason Kidd. A commanding floor presence with exceptional court vision, develops a better J to go with the slashing scoring ability. Rose leads the Bulls to the 2010 NBA Finals, earning MVP Award, assumes Jason Kidd's throne (and challenges Chris Paul) as the PG of Team USA for the next decade. Exposes Tony Parker and Chris Paul as "too small" to cover him. Becomes a perennial 1st Team All-NBA Player.

Worst case scenario: Derrick Fischer. A strong, physically tough, solid floor general; a great locker room presence and a solid contributor to good teams. A nice 10 year career, solid but not spectacular numbers.

Miami Heat - Michael Beasley #2
Grade: A+

The Heat, after some insane posturing select the most pro-ready collegian since Carmelo Anthony, an instant impact SF/PF who will average 20-10 for a long, long time.

Best case scenario: Dirk Nowitski meets Kobe Bryant. I know - odd blend. The size and shooting touch and ability to shoot over top of any defender quick enough to stay in front of him (ala Dirk), with the killer big-bucket instinct and competitiveness of the Mamba. Questions regarding "character" surfaced from the Heat camp (but OJ Mayo seemed fine??). Please, doubters - pop in a tape of the first Kansas game from 07-08. Spectacular. Best collegiate performance in a regular season game I have seen in a decade. Kansas could have put seven guys on the floor, and he STILL could have thrown in 30. Oh, and he led the NATION in rebounding. By the way, Kansas had four guys drafted last night and won the National Championship...

Beasley becomes an instant All-Star, and is a top-3 MVP guy for 6-8 years. The Heat get a healthy Dwyane Wade, and win the East in 2009. The Heat win a title in 2011, then trade a washed-up, disgruntled, injured, max-contract Shawn Marion back to the Phoenix Suns for two first-round draft picks, both eventual lottery picks, and Steve Kerr wanders the streets of Scottsdale, babbling vacantly about the 1998 Bulls...

Worst case scenario: Zach Randolf, Glenn Robinson - Decent numbers guy, never appears fully committed to dominating in the NBA. I do not think this is the case with Beasley.

Memphis Grizzlies (via Minnesota) - OJ Mayo #3
Grade: C+

I like this pick a lot more in Memphis's hands as opposed to Minnesota's. Mayo could flourish having an opportunity to dominate the ball and look to score. Converting him to a pure PG could have been a difficult task.

Best case scenario: Gilbert Arenas, Kevin Martin. OK, so I am not sold on Mayo. I can't shake the thought of watching three of four USC games this year and not instantly being able to tell which one was OJ. He blended in with the other guards on the floor for USC, just another good player. Stars POP off the screen. Watch the NCAA tourney game vs. Kansas St and tell me how there was ever a debate for the Heat...

Worst Case scenario: Ricky Davis, Stephon Marbury. Tons of talent. Tons of athleticism. Tons of issues... Tons of losing. Mayo peaks early (as a 14 year old on the cover of SLAM Magazine) and never quite fulfills the promise and hype. Three years down the road Mayo is left behind after the deal in which GM Chris Wallace ships the three best players to the Lakers in exchange for a sack of wrenches and a stack of Golden Girls DVD's. Local business chain develops product entitled simply, "OJ Mayo - The Condiment of Killers." Rampant lawsuits follow. Allegedly.

Oklahoma City SuperSellouts - Russell Westbrook #4
Grade: C

Ok, call me crazy. At any point, was this guy the best player on his team? Did he not sit the bench behind NBA-All Stars like Jordan Farmar and Aaron Afflalo for two years before emerging as a junior?? This year he was no better than the third best player on his own team (Love, Collison) Number 4?

Best case scenario: Rajon Rondo with a little more offensive spark. Solid, if not exceptional defender. Doesn't need the ball to have an impact (a nice fit for Durant). A real nice fit pick, just not sure if the value is there at #4

Worst case scenario: Dominates head-to-head matchup against former UCLA teammate Richard Mbah-Moute in 2011 NBA D-League Finals.


Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis) - Kevin Love #5
Grade: B-

McHale reportedly coveted Love from the beginning (the player, kevin love...). A few pundits tabbed him "this year's Adam Morrison." That is unfair (and also a discreet way of saying "slow sucky white guy"). A better analagy would be "this year's Sean May." And that isn't really a compliment, but at least it isn't patently racist.

Best case scenario: Carlos Boozer, Robert Horry.
Love develops a nice mid-range jump shot to offset some quickness liabilities. He learns to channel his intensty and focus, becomes an instant fan-favorite and a locker room "glue-guy." A good player, a key contributor, but never a star on
good teams. He evolves into a Sam Cassell, James Posey, Robert Horry, PJ Brown guy. And that ain't a bad career - just a little bit of a reach at #5.

Worst case scenario: Sean May, Marcus Fizer.
Good college player, nice fundamentals - just a little small and/or slow for the NBA. Love plays several years, then slips slowly out of the league. He is found ten years later, sinking two consecutive shots from the opposite foul-line during a halftime promotion in Flint, Michigan. Flint Tropics owner Jackie Moon scrambles to find the $20,000 owed to Love. While waiting for the check, Love begins earning extra money doing Beach Boy cover songs in Los Angeles beach bars.