Working Overtime - A Chaotic Saturday in College Hoops

Just in case you needed any more proof that this year's tourney is as unpredictable as any in recent memory, with no clear cut favorites, take a quick sampling of some of this afternoon's contests.

Texas and Kentucky remained the nation's only two unbeatens, but you'd be hard pressed to call them the nation's clear two best teams.  For the second time this week Kentucky looked lackluster, struggling to put away a lower-echelon and NIT-at-BEST conference foes.  Today they let Auburn hang around until the final minutes before a few John Wall blow-byes sealed the deal.  They seem ripe for a loss, though to this point it has been the better teams have brought out the Cats' edge.  Perhaps it will be one of the lesser foes that get them (Arkansas?  @South Carolina?)  They have let Miami (OH), Georgia, and now Auburn play them tight for 39 minutes, yet handled UConn, Louisville and Florida with aplomb.  Lack of focus?  Perhaps it is simply parity, parity, parity.

Texas can let out a Texas-sized sigh of relief after dodging a bullet at home against Texas A&M.  The Aggies led for 39 minutes, all but the most important final one; before the Longhorns forced OT and gabbed the win.  This is not a new trend for the Horns either, as more than a few unranked opponents (though A&M is a good tourney-likely ballclub) hang around until the final few minutes.  Like Kentucky, they have brought their A-game for A-opponents.  The Horns better Monday when they visit Kansas State in Manhattan, or they will leave with their first loss.

The BEast continues to roar with seemingly every game being a fantastic gut-wrencher.  The season kicked off before the new year giving us a West Virginia over Seton Hall OT thriller.  Today?  Syaracuse wins by 1 at West Virginia, Pitt need OT to stave off Louisville (and remain 5-0 in conference), and Notre Dame gets clipped by two in their road upset bid of Cincinnati.  Only Villanova and Pitt remain unbeaten, and legitimatly 11 teams in this league are easily among the Top 65.  Will all eleven gets bids?  Of course not, but those last two are three are going to be one heck of a fight that will likely not be decided until Madison Square Garden.

Not wanting to be left out of the OT party, the SEC handed out an absolute thriller in Knoxville.  While one can debate the meritoriousness, considering the situation that derived the predicament, the Vols are undeniably becoming a team of national curiosity.  Not only are they a good story, they are also the hottest team in the country.  The orange surge continued today with a scintillating win over Ole Miss that took 45 minutes to decide.

Want some more parity?  Georgia Tech and Syracuse eeked out final possession wins over highly rated conference foes on the road (UNC and WVU), yet both have lost home games to unranked opponents in the past two weeks (in the 'Cuse defense, Pitt is Top-15 as of today).  

Clemson looked like world beaters against UNC earlier this week and again for 35 minutes today against NC State.  Then a 19 point lead evaporated into a "glad that desperation three came up short" three point win.  NC State beat Georgia Tech last week.  And lost to Florida on a 60 foot buzzer beater... Seriously, you figure out the ACC.  The only team that seems to be fully clicking is... Virginia?  Yep.  After an 18-point win over Miami (exposed this week much?  Wow.)  the Cavs are the only 3-0 team in the league.  Are they better than Duke?  Not a chance.  But it might be time to start paying attention to the Cavs in the wacky 2010 ACC.

What I do know about the ACC?  Teams are going to continue to pressure Carolina until there is some indication Larry Drew can handle it.  So far, so bad for the sophomore point guard.  The more the pressure turns him over, the more he seems to be pressing.  He really looked rough down the stretch toda against Tech.  It looks to me like Roy Williams is desperately searching for a combination that works, and will have to do it with the Heels unranked for the first time as of Monday (assuming voters have any sense at all...)

And what is going on in Boiler country?  Since writing my well-researched proclamation on the Boilers Final Four-worthiness, they haven't won a single game, going from undefeated to seventh place in the Big Ten in the span of ten days.  Tonight's loss at Northwestern isn't a back-breaker, but a number one seed is starting to slip away.  Michigan State handled their biz today, handing Illinois their first conference loss in moving to 5-0.  This puts Sparty a full three games ahead of Purdue (granted, they still play twice), and I find it hard to believe the committee will reward a number one seed to a team that fails to win their conference (other than the obvious 1-2 in the Big 12 and possibly the BEast).

Parity is running wild, in every conference large and small.  This week's Bracketeering is going to be based a lot on subjective matters and eye-ball tests and hypothesis and is sure to raise a few eyebrows and arguments.

Not that we'd want it any other way.

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Did someone say Bubble??

At March Maniacs it is NEVER to early to talk bubble. Tonight brings us one of the first obvious bubble games of the year when Notre Dame visits struggling Cincinnati.

Cincy flat-out gave away the St Johns game Wednesday and can ill afford a home loss to another middle of the league team. The Big East will get at least seven bids. In my estimation, six are all but locked, and the pecking order after this six has Louisville and Marquette near the top. That makes tonight's game at the Shoe of vital importance to both squads.

Cincinnati is favored by five, but I am not sure they are disciplined enough to corral Harangody with good helpside defense.

Give me the Irish on the road in an "upset"


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Saturday Picks - Jan 16th

Fresh off a fantastic 3-1 night, pulling the record to 35-27-1 on the year, the Maniac wades into one of the fullest days of the college hoops season.

Perhaps the gem of the day tips off before the clock strikes noon when Dayton travels to Xavier in an A10 blockbuster. The schools, seperated by only an hour represent the past and present of the most underrated league in the nation. Dayton has slipped off the national radar, but is still a likely tournament team capable of playing past the first weekend. Xavier seems to be clicking, having reeled off three straight since the double-OT loss at Wake.

The winner takes an early upper hand in the A-10 race and likely starts getting a few votes in the AP poll. The line says Muskies by six and a half, I'm not picking this one, but wanted to make sure to give one of the best games of the day it's proper due.

On to the picks:

Syracuse travels to Morgantown in the highest profile game of the day. It's a fantastic matchup, but I like the Orange on the road with the four and a half. It will be interesting to see if the 'Eers can utilize the size an versatility of Butler and Ebanks in the high post and short corners against the zone. Great game; gimme the Cuse +4.5

Is Clemson for real? I think so. I think they keep rolling, beating NC St on the road. Staying in the ACC, let me ask you a question. On a neutral floor, who's better? GA Tech or North Carolina? Tough call? Then why are the Heels laying EIGHT? Gimme Tech to cover.

Pitt only laying three hosting spotty Louisville? That tells me Vegas isn't sold yet on the Panthers. After wins at UConn and Syracuse I can't find anymore reason to doubt Dixon's club. Gimme Pitt; lay the three.

In the Big 12, Mizzou has been the most pleasant surprise; Oklahoma the exact converse. So why would it be a surprise for the Tigers to run all over 'em in Norman? Yeah, I don't think ot would either. Take the Tigers laying two.

Another Big 12 game; Baylor hosts OK St. Not sold on the Pokes and their soft wins. Baylor meanwhile has been tested frequently and shown well. I think only one of these two cam dance this March, so this game is bigger than it might first appear. I like Baylor to bring their A game and cover the four at home.

One last pick. I can't see anyway Purdue drops a third straight game, though they ARE winless since I wrote the glowing bromance article about them. I am a little hurt, but the affection remains strong. This is a tough one, given my equally long affinity for Northwestern, but I just don't see them being able to corral an angry Boilermaker squad, even at home.

RECAP:
Syracuse +4
Clemson -4
Pitt -3
Mizzou -2.5
GA Tech +8
Baylor -4
Purdue -6


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Thursday Quick Picks - Jan 14th

The best game of the night is on after most of us have long since gone to sleep, but if you have the means, DVR Gonzaga @ St Mary's tonight at 11est. Its the best of the non BSC conference games of the year, with the possible exception of Dayton/Xavier. The Zags are at the end of a brutal five game stretch that began with a humiliating loss to Duke, but has since seen wins over Oklahoma, Illinois and Portland (the last two on the road). A win tonight puts not only the Duke loss, but also the WCC competition in the rear view mirror.

St. Mary's has a lot to play for as well. Their record merits at-large consideration this year. Then again, it did last year as well, and even with the bulk of their losses coming without injured PG Patty Mills the Gaels still found themselves on the outside looking in. Mills is gone, but Omar Samhan has emerged as the best big man out west and a legit 2nd or 3rd team All American candidate. Tonight is a huge game for St Mary's. A loss at home to the Zags will be dificult to make up down the road, both in the standings and in the slim window of earning some national respect.

I like the Zags to sneak a conference-controlling win on the road tonight, straight up - but like getting four and a half as well.

In other games:

Georgetown defends the perimeter well. Seton Hall relies solely on Hazell scoring. I imagine the Hoyas know that and will adjust. Gimme GTown -7.

Has there ever been a team more primed for an emotional letdown than the Tennessee Vols? They should still win but I can't see them covering the 16 against Auburn.

Lastly give me the 15.5 and Cleveland St visiting Butler tonight. The Bulldogs are much better, but the Vikes tend to play them tough in this conference rivalry.



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Don't Believe the Board

The ACC is going to be nuts this year. Three games in, EVERY team has at least one loss...except preseason last place pick Virginia.

There were two absolute blowouts last night in which the final scores inched back towards respectable. Don't be fooled by the scores. Clemson has bounced back from their conference opening beatdown by Duke and looked awesome last night humiliating North Carolina. The Tarheels were out-toughed in embarrasing fashion and their backcourt's (particularly their ballhandling) woes are becomming glaring.

Meanwhile Miami's big test could be scored an F- despite losing by "only" 18 at Virginia Tech. At one point they were down 35-8 in the first half and never contended in the game for a second. It makes the 15-1 record even more suspect than is was coming in.

Your guess in the ACC is as good as anyone elses. Really, I can't recall a league being more chaotic one through twelve. I'm not sure we are going to see too much seperation even by the end of the season, But next week I'll take a stab at a few projections.

Here's three quick ones:
@ Duke wins the league
@ Georgia Tech and Clemson are the most formidable
Challengers
@ Virginia finishes under .500

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