Previewing the Southeast Region

On paper, the Southeast has been called the weakest of the four regions, however, that just means it is one of the trickiest to predict. Pitt appears to have an easier path than any of the other four #1 seeds, due largely to the ridiculous over-seeding of the Florida Gators and the weakening of the BYU Cougars due to the suspension of leading rebounder and best defender, Brandon Davies.

Wisconsin and Kansas State are interesting teams looking in the potential 4 vs 5 game, as both have taken down number one seeds this season; Ohio State and Kansas respectively. Meanwhile #6 seed St. John’s, despite a bevy of losses, has beaten more Top Ten teams than anyone else in the field.

In the higher seeds, last year’s tourney darling Butler seems to have righted the ship and can’t be considered an easy-out for the occasionally offensively-challenged Pitt Panthers. And Butler can’t look past their first-round opponent, Old Dominion. The Monarchs upset Notre Dame in the first round last year, holding Notre Dame’s senior star Luke Harangody to a career-low two points in the process. ODU is as good defensively as any team in the region, including Pitt, and could be a very difficult matchup in the second round.

Three double-digit seed dangers make their home in the Southeast region as well; Gonzaga, Utah State and Wofford all have significant tournament experience and a roster full of veterans, savvy ballhanders and enough sharp-shooters to spring first round upsets.

It’s going to be an exciting region, even if the names don’t pop off the page like they do in the East and West. Let’s take a look at some first round matchups, as well as who is going to advance, and eventually who will be cutting down the nets and making their way to Houston.

Ten Best Players in the Southeast Region:
Ashton Gibbs (Pitt), Brad Wanamaker (Pitt), Jordan Taylor (Wisconsin), John Lauer (Wisconsin), Jacob Pullen (Kansas State), Jimmer Fredetter (BYU), Chandler Parsons (Florida), Kalin Lucas (Michigan State), Dwight Hardy (St. John’s), Frank Hassel (ODU),

First Round Matchups:

#1 Pitt vs. #16 Ark Little Rock/UNC Asheville

In the top half of the bracket, Pitt should have little difficulty dispatching the winner of the Arkansas Little Rock v. UNC Asheville winner. They then face the winner of one of the best first-round games, a mid-major battle between Butler and Old Dominion.

#8 Butler v. #9 Old Dominion

I like the Monarchs stifling defense giving Butler fits. The Bulldogs had some magic last year, but it might have left early along with Gordon Hayward. ODU finished 27-6 and won the ultra-competitive Colonial Tournament. They won non-conference games over Clemson, Richmond and Xavier; all NCAA Tournament teams.

#5 Kansas State v. #12 Utah State

Utah State will be the popular upset pick, but let me caution you against betting against Jacob Pullen and the Wildcats. Kansas State is far to athletic for the Aggies, who have no answer for Pullen and the stable of long, athletic bigs Kansas State brings to the party. Utah State is a good shooting team, and has the potential to get hot from three and spring the upset, but I think Kansas State is head and shoulders better than Utah State and should roll in the first round.

#4 Wisconsin v. #13 Belmont

Wisconsin has been a consistent high-seed, thanks in large part to their incredible performance in the Kohl Center. It inflates their record and gives them a few marquee wins. This year is no exception, as they knocked off Ohio State, Purdue, Michigan State and Illinois, all in dominant fashion. However away from home they lost to those same teams, as well as UNLV and Notre Dame. In fact, other than Marquette they didn’t beat an NCAA Tournament team away from home all season.

Belmont has been sniffing the upset for quite some time, most notably their near-win over #2 Duke three seasons ago. They finished 30-4, and almost knocked off Tennessee in Knoxville, falling 66-65. I think this is the year they finally get their tournament win, in my Southeast Upset Special – Belmont Bruins over Wisconsin.

#6 St. John’s v #11 Gonzaga

This is my other first-round upset special. I like the poise and size of Gonzaga knocking off the erratic, but talented St. John’s Red Storm. Did you see the way St. John’s handled pressure situations in the Big East Tourney?? They may be a senior-laden ball club, but they aren’t a tourney-experienced ball club. Gimme the Zags rekindling some of the Cinderella magic that first put them on the map.

#3 BYU v. #14 Wofford

Wofford is nothing if not battle tested. The Terriers faced one of the toughest non-conference schedules in the country, playing Minnesota, Clemson, Xavier, George Mason, Georgetown and VCU. They beat Mason and took Xavier to three overtimes before falling, but the losses laid a foundation for a great Southern Conference season.

BYU has endured the much-publicized suspension of forward Brandon Davies, but still has a guy names Jimmer Fredette pulling the strings. Wofford is going to put one heckuva scare into BYU, but in the end, I like Jimmer prevailing through to round 2.

#7 UCLA v. #10 Michigan State

Another fantastic first round match-up, an odd place for these two schools who have dominated the tourney for much of the last decade to be meeting up. UCLA is the higher seed, but Michigan State is the better team. Kalin Lucas should be able to control tempo, and as long as the Spartans shots don’t go ice cold, as they have on more than a few occasions this season, they should be able to get past UCLA.

#2 Florida v. #15 UC Santa Barbara

Florida is ridiculously over-seeded at a #2, but they should still advance though this game with little trouble. Plus, the game is in St. Pete, a virtual home game for the Gators whose fans should be attending en masse.

Moving Through the Region:

I like Pittsburgh getting past a tough ODU team, and meeting up with Kansas State in the Sweet 16. In the bottom half of the bracket, I’m going with complete chaos – Florida getting stunned at “home” by a resurgent Michigan State team and Gonzaga clipping the BYU Cougars.

In the Elite 8, I’ll take Pitt and Michigan State with Pitt cutting down the nets and heading off to Houston. I am reluctant to pick Pitt in an NCAA Tournament, given their perilous history of underperforming in March, but as the already-weak bracket falls apart all around them, it’s hard not to pick the Panthers to advance. Their biggest obstacle would be their Sweet 16 game with Kansas State, who has both the talent and tournament experience to knock them off.

SOUTHEAST CHAMP: PITT PANTHERS

UPSET PICKS:
Gonzaga, Michigan State and Belmont