Perhaps too much is made of singular wins and losses in early February in definitive terms of "in" or "out". For example, it would be really easy to call UConn's Saturday disastrous home loss to Cincinnati 60-48 the final nail in the tourney hope coffin.
Then they turn around and beat Villanova in Phily. UConn still has some work to do, but with a road win over Nova and a win over Texas, coupled with a strong schedule strength, it is hard to say the Huskies are officially dead. Ditto for Louisville. After their pathetic effort in a road loss to St. John's it was hard to envision the Cards getting to the Dance. Then they grabbed a 66-60 win at Syracuse and it was game-on again. In fact, that singular win picked the Cards sagging RPI from 47th all the way up to 31st. Still think Pitino is heading to the NIT? I'd say there's a better chance he heads to the NETs...
The point is, a single win or loss doesn't officially bury a team's tourney hopes...or does it? Let's take a look at the weekend's most significant results.
Cornell avoided compacting the disaster of the Penn loss by rebounding to steal a 2-point win over Princeton. However, that loss leaves them in must-win mode for the remainder of the season. Should they drop a game or two and NOT win the Ivy and it's auto bid, I find it hard to believe they get an at-large slot. The committee is rarely sentimental (see: leaving out Davidson last year). They are pragmatic. And with two or three losses in the Ivy, they would not be worthy. Sorry.
Northern Iowa is still a lock tourney team, but dropping a game to Bradley pushes them back into the 7-10 range, depending upon how they rebound from here. If they stayed clean and ran the table, I had them as high as a 4 or 5.
Cal is approaching lock status after sweeping the Washington schools last week to move to 9-4 in league play. This is good news for the Pac-10, who can root for everyone else in the conference tourney and avoid 1-bid embarrassment.
Xavier fired a major shot for A-10 respect, going into Florida and winning Saturday night. X moves into near-lock status and is trending towards wearing white in the opening round. Meanwhile Florida is getting precariously close to a third straight NIT. If not for a few miracle buzzer-beaters, this season would be long over. As it is, they need to finish strong.
South Carolina's odds of dancing were pretty long to begin with, losing at Georgia to fall to 14-10 (5-5) all but seals their fate. As of now, they are not even on the bubble and would have to leapfrog about 15 teams to get close to the tourney.
Murray State is getting to be an interesting case. At 24-3 and a perfect 15-0 in Ohio Valley play, they are dangerously close to being in position to steal an at-large bid should they falter in the OVC Tourney. Suffice it to say there are a dozen of so ACC, SEC, BEast and Big 12 schools who are becoming BIG Racer fans for their conference tourney run...
VCU is now officially done unless they win the CAA Tourney. They fell to 9-6 in CAA play after losing to James Madison. Early season wins over Oklahoma, Rhode Island and Richmond seem long ago by this point. Conversely, William & Mary hung on to distant at-large hopes with a huge win over Northeasetern. If the Tribe can win out, they would sit at 22-7 (13-5), with road wins over Maryland and Wake Forest. It makes for an interesting case for inclusion in the tourney...
Don't look now, but Marquette is emerging (as predicted by the Maniac) as the sixth BEast team after a comfy win over South Florida. The Bulls would have loved the win, but even falling to 5-7 doesn't cripple their hopes. Their home schedule (starting tonight with Cincinnati) lends favorably to a late tourney charge.
Oklahoma State stopped the bleeding by hammering rival Oklahoma in Stillwater. The Sooner's hopes were done anyway, but let's go ahead and officially toe-tag the season now. For the 'Pokes, at 17-7 (5-5) there is some work still left to do, but the win keeps them alive and kicking strong. A loss? It might have buried them too deep to dig out.
St. Mary's had a disastrous week that, in my opinion, leaves them needing to win the WCC Tourney to avoid another near-miss getting in to the tourney, despite posting 26 or 27 wins. Earlier in the week they were emasculated by Gonzaga. Saturday night they got clipped 80-75 by the Portland Pilots. Early season talk about the strength of the WCC appears to have been premature, as the league is headed to one-bid territory yet again unless some upsets the Zags in the tourney. In their last two games against the two premier challengers (St. Mary's and Portland) Gonzaga won by 20+.
Dayton is "in" in nearly every mock tourney board, but the 68-65 2OT loss at St. Louis leaves the Flyers a clear step behind Temple, Richmond and Xavier in A-10 pecking order. Rhode Island has a much better record. In my opinion they and Charlotte are slugging it out for fifth, and I just don't see all six getting in. The Flyers better be real careful not to leave another win on the table in the last three weeks. Speaking of St. Louis, they have nothing in non-conference play but have surged to 7-3 in the A-10, and sit at 17-8 overall.... not saying anything, I'm just saying...
Speaking of Richmond, move them from "bubble" to IN. The win over Rhode Island now gives them road wins over Florida, Mississippi St and Rhode Island to go with wins over Temple, Missouri and Old Dominion. The Spiders have played themselves into good position for March, even with a few tough games left on the schedule.
Lastly in A-10 play, last week I wrote that Rhode Island's #13 RPI might be a little bit of fool's gold. It proved prophetic after they got spanked 78-56 at Temple. The Rams are still 21-5, but need to be careful as they lack any real marquee wins. Temple is a lock, and stays in line for a #4-#5 seed.
San Diego State kept their distant hopes alive, knocking off UNLV in a must-win game for the Aztecs. New Mexico and BYU are locks, and UNLV is still in good shape. San Diego State still needs some breaks to go their way, but the win over UNLV keeps them in the conversation.
Texas A&M got a huge 77-75 road win over Texas Tech. The loss drops Tech to 4-6 in Big 12 play, and likely out of the tourney. A&M's RPI continues to surge into the low teens, and they appear a solid lock for the Dance.
In C-USA, Memphis might have landed the knock-out punch to Tulsa's at-large chances by winning at the Golden Hurricane's house. Marshall is not going to the tourney, but they continue to impress after pulling off a road win at UAB. The Blazers have a good non-conference resume, but are squarely back on the bubble. Memphis is going to push them for second in the league, which in my opinion, is good enough to snag an #11 or #12 in the tourney. No way they both get in, and Tulsa needs to win out to get back in the mix. UTEP remains the strong front runner after a 100-76 win over ECU.
Lastly, things are starting to settle a bit in the ACC. Saturday established Duke as the clear leader. They are no worse than a #2, and still have an outside chance at a #1 Seed. Maryland was hurt by the 22-point loss at Durham, but remains in solid tourney position. Virginia Tech got themselves into the discussion, and probably knocked out Virginia with by completing the series sweep over the Cavs.
Lastly, Wake Forest seems pushing towards tourney lock, while Georgia Tech is playing themselves surprisingly towards the bubble. The Deacon's 75-64 win over the Wreck moved them to 18-5 (8-3), while it dropped Tech to 17-8 (5-6)
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