The Maniac has grown weary of the weekly polls, as it is hard to move teams too far with out being real knee-jerk. For example; Wake beats UNC and WHOA!! Wake is the #1 team in the country. Then they lose to Virginia Tech... so now Duke is #1. It would have been Pitt but they lost to a very good and peaking at the right time Louisville team.... and so on.
The polls have to love Marquette (They are 7-0 in the "best conference in the country") and they have to punish Syracuse for losing three of four. What the records and polls do not tell you was that Syracuse lost to Louisville, Pitt and Georgetown.
Call me when Marquette beats one of those three and we'll talk.
Meanwhile Butler climbs every week. Tell me voters, which Butler win bowled you over the past few weeks? Was it the Wisconsin-Milwaukee game? Or was it the win over Wisconsin-Green Bay? Did you even know those were two different schools? And which one did Bruce Pearl coach at???
The point is, I am not saying Butler is NOT one of the ten best teams in the country. They are one possession away from being 19-0 with wins over Ohio St (the lone loss), Xavier, Drake, Evansville and Northwestern. None of those jump up and smack you other than maybe X, but it is enough to vault them to #8 in the RPI. The RPI's failings are yet another article... (For a quick preview, Siena at 16-5 is ahead of Texas, Villanova, Washington and Florida despite being 0-4 against RPI top 50 teams and having NO signature wins!!)
Oh yeah; the point. The point is Butler will continue to climb the polls as teams ahead of them lose, until they reach the arbitrary threshold of how high pollsters allow them to go. My guess is 7th is the magic cap. Just a hunch. Pollsters can't leap them over Duke, UNC, Oklahoma, Michigan St, Pitt, UCONN or Louisville unless one of them just BEGS them to by dropping multiple should-win games.
So... instead of the standard Bracketeering, the Maniac will once again spew his cursed prognostications on a few unsuspecting teams in the form of our Crystal Ball Edition.
Enjoy. This leaves lots of room for debate, and as always, we enjoy the fervor of the fans (and the occasional profanity laced email...)
BRACKETEERING - JANUARY 27th CRYSTAL BALL EDITION
FINAL FOUR
#1. Duke - The Maniac doth blaspheme! How dare we scorn our Tarheels...but the gut feel at this point is that Duke's versatility offensively and discipline defensively helping on the weakside and getting through ball screens makes them the team to beat. Gerald Henderson finally being the player everyone thought he could be, coupled with Kyle Singler and the underrated John Scheyer and the "talent gap" isn't nearly as large as the casual observer might think when compared to UNC. Of course, they play Wake tomorrow, and still have two tussles with the Tarheels, so plenty of time to prove me wrong.
#2. North Carolina - Tyler Hansbrough's ability to get junk buckets (A TOTAL compliment. It simply means he gets 6-8 points a game on rugby scrums most team don't even fight for. That is the difference between a win and a loss in a tough March ballgame), Ty Lawson's ability to push tempo and create a frantic pace, Danny Green and Ellington's ability to score smoothly and bury long range 3's in secondary breaks, and their depth.... and, whoops, long sentance, time for a damn period.
Anyhow, this team is so so loaded. However, the thing that keeps them #2 to me is the displayed ability to lose focus and to press with shots in tight games. It is like they know they aren't supposed to lose ever, so they try really hard NOT to. If they'll just play to win, it is unlikely they won't...
#3. Louisville - Yes, I really believe they are the best team in the Big East. They have PG questions, but you can't convince me that UConn doesn't have some backcourt instabilities as well. Pitt is tough and can defend, but gives me a few major offensive question marks as well. Louisville is gelling at the right time. "T-Will" is a legit All-American, Samardo Samuels (despite the ribbing he has taken here and everywhere else) is becoming one of the top 3 or 4 freshman in the country and a legit post presence. Earl Clark is an athletic freak of nature and they have good depth. It isn't the easy pick at #3, but looking in the crystal ball, I like the defensive intensity and athleticism of this ball club guided by Pitino's hand in March.
#4. Oklahoma - Blake Griffin is the National POY if I had a ballot (hey, not a bad idea...someone give me a ballot....). It isn't even close. Two plays from last night's game that seal the deal for me, and none of them are about a basket scored. First, a teammate throws an outlet pass from the opposite foul line to about the other foul line. I yell at the TV, "terrible pass." Out of nowhere Blake, in perfect stride extends his off hand, catches it over his head with one hand, cups it and lays it in; all in one fluid spectacular motion. Oh, and he was double-teamed. Not the bucket, but the catch. Unreal.
The second play, Oklahoma State tries to press the Sooners. Griffin flashes to the midcourt sideline and receives the pass. Instead of holding it over his head, elbows-at-the-ears, big-guy textbook style, he turns dribbles through trafffic, behind the back, then throws a skip pass into the corner for a wide-open 3. Just like Chris Paul.
If he can get some more great play around him from Warren and Crocker this team could legitimately win it all.
ELITE EIGHT:
#5. Michigan State - They started terribly, but seem to have it all together now. Yes, they lost a home game to Northwestern. Yes, the lasting memory most of us have of them is the 40+ point shellacking they took from UNC...so why #5? Call it a gut feel. Tom Izzo teams are always better in March than they were in December. And they were already pretty good in December. Also the Big Ten is way better than most people think.
#6. Pitt - LeVance Fields is a winner, Sam Young and DeJuan Blair deserve some All-American consideration despite their low stats (keep in mind a Pitt game features about 20 less points and 10 less possessions than a normal game and about 40/40 less than a Carolina game - everything is relative, stats mean nada). They are going to be a real tough out in the tourney, but I think they lack the offensive fire-power to cut down the nets. Plus, at some point they have to go "Pitt", right?
#7. Xavier - Huh? Homer pick? Forget the Duke loss, everyone gets a mulligan. (Duke=Michigan, UNC=BC, Oklahoma=Arkansas...) Since then freshman PG Terrell Holloway has gotten healthy and settled into his Drew Lavender-like role running the team. Xavier has seven guys who can score and everyone of them is tough as hell. If you want to beat these guys you better do it early, because they win every close game in the last three minutes. Lots of upper classman, lots of tourney experience and the most offensive balance in the country. This team is built for the NCAA tourney.
#8. UCLA - Forget polls, this is my crystal ball. When was the last time UCLA went out early in the tourney? They played in the second weekend even when Lavin was coaching. This is still a good veteran team with great guard play and good defensive intensity. I like them dancing late in the tourney yet again.
SWEET SIXTEEN:
#9. Purdue - Same story, good balance, good defensive intensity, tons of intangibles. They struggle occasionally to find where their offense is going to come from, but E'Twan Moore and Robbie Hummel have been more assertive of late. They have played a good schedule and taken a few lumps, but will be ready come March.
#10. UConn - My crystal ball, my biases. This team has everything... on paper. I just don't like the collective ticker on this team. If they get to Detroit I will write a glowing apology column (not like there are any Huskie fans out there anyway...). Until then, just not sold on them.
#11. Gonzaga - They might actually enjoy these last few months under the collective national radar, it makes for good "no one believed in us" tourney magic. However the Maniac remembers how talented this team is. Their weakness has been shot selection. Jeremy Pargo is talented but the more he distributes the ball evenly the better this team becomes. They have four guys over 6'11'' who can play, and two guards (Bouldin and Pargo) who can start for most major conference teams in the country. I like the Zags when it is all said and done as that #5-#7 seed who derails someone glamorous in the 2nd round.
#12. Wake Forest - It has been a great year so far, and this team is legitimately good. Perhaps I will change my tune after tomorrow's Duke game, but I see this team backsliding just a little. Still a great year, but this is not the #1 team in the country folks. They are likely the third best team in their conference. That said, Jeff Teague is still on my First Team All-American ballot (when I get one...).
#13. Florida - Another team sliding under the radar that I would be afraid of in March. Calathes will enjoy a few weekends on the national stage in March and come into 2010 as a POY candidate. The Gators have good outside shooting, but are relying less on it than in the early season. That is a good thing. Getting more aggressive with penetration and feeding the post has been working. They are one brain cramp (South Carolina game...) away from a 12-game winning streak.
#14. UNLV - For some reason no voters have attended any Mountain West games this year. It's a shame, they are missing some pretty great basketball. Don't be surprised to see UNLV and BYU playing in the second weekend come March. They already boast wins over Louisville, Utah, BYU, and Arizona. They are just now getting healthy as well.
#15. Memphis - Another team enjoying a little dip off the national radar, keep in mind this team is very young. Early season close losses to Xavier, Syracuse, and Georgetown might have been dissapointing, but exactly what a young team needs to learn and grow. I'd expect those lesson to have sunk in come March.
#16. Texas - AJ Abrahams hit a little mid-season wall, and Texas slumped a little along with him. This is a team whose four losses all came to teams who have been ranked in the Top 10, with the exception of the Arkansas mulligan. They also have wins over UCLA, Villanova and Wisconsin.
SECOND ROUNDERS:
Butler, Clemson, Marquette, BYU, Arizona State, Washington, Georgetown, Syracuse, Kentucky, St. Mary's, Davidson, Virginia Tech, VCU, Illinois State, Missouri, Florida State
DANCERS:
West Virginia, Tennessee, Kansas, Ohio State, Illinois, Minnesota, Notre Dame, VMI, Dayton, Cal, Penn State, Baylor, Creighton, Siena, LSU, Baylor, Utah St, Robert Morris, (and some auto-bids at well)
BUBBLE BURST:
Mississippi St, Villanova, Miami (FL), Maryland, Providence, Michigan, George Mason, Northeastern, Northern Iowa, South Carolina, Utah, TCU, Houston, Oklahoma St, Arizona
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