Biggest Bracket Blunders

Biggest Bracket Blunders:

It’s the time of year again when all us hardcore fans are subjected to the unmerciful taunting of the jackass in the adjacent cubicle who hasn’t watched a game all year and just picked based on mascots, and is still a few points up in the pool. It is as unavoidable as a senator getting caught with a hooker (guys – you are rich, powerful, there are a LOT of people who want to see you caught with a hooker!).

So here a few sure-fire blunders to avoid when filling in your brackets this year.

1. Searching for the “Next George Mason”

Look, I get it. Us hardcore junkies would rather come in last that pick the standard 1-1-1-2 Final Four (gotta throw in that one 2 seed to be “edgy”). The simple fact is, the reason the expression came to pass in the first place is that is ALMOST NEVER happens. There are always upsets, but only once in the since 1992 has a non-major conference team advanced to the Final Four. That would be 1 of 64 teams, or about 1.6%.

You could be the one to nail it, but odds are keeping closer to reality is the way to go. If you want to be “edgy” and out there, grab a 4 or 5 seed with a solid nucleus, good coach and solid backcourt play, tough defense and a guy who can score the basketball (see: Vandy, Wisconsin, Pitt)

2. George Mason is NOT the “Next George Mason”

It just isn’t happening this year guys. You aren’t the clever one picking the upset, buck the trend and take the Irish. They are good. Actually the fit the formula from above to the T….hmmm

I know – you wanna take the “shocking” 5-12 upset… just take the Irish.

Speaking of the shocking 5-12 upset…

3. The 5-12 Game is Closer to a Pick-Em Than You Think!

The reason there are so many upsets in the 5-12 game, is because they aren’t really upsets. The true underdogs don’t come into play until the 13 seeds when the at-large teams are exhausted. In your average 5-12 game you are taking a team around 20 in the RPI and pitting them against a team somewhere in the mid-thirties. Add in the fact that the game is on a neutral floor, with tourney one-and-done pressure, and it is a much closer than the 5-12 would indicate… and anything can happen.

4. But Rarely to the True Big Guys


Looking at some of the classic true upsets in the opening round over the past ten years, you will notice an interesting trend. Nearly every one of them was a team that was experiencing a better than expected year, and few had a household-name bonafide star.

Cases in point:

1998: Brice Drew & Valpo in a stunner. The shot sent 4 seed Mississippi home. Major conference, not a perennial power. There are more…

2006: (14) Northwester State over Iowa
2001: Hampton (15) over Iowa St.
2002: UNC Wilmington (13) over USC
2003: Tulsa (13) over Dayton

Name me one player on any of those teams off the top of your head (no – that wasn’t the ISU team with Fizer and Tinsley). Tough to do right? Because big-name programs with big-name stars are rarely the victims…

Except for Kansas…
2005: Bucknell (14) over Kansas
2006: Bradley (13) over Kansas

So – Who are the most likely to fall victim this year? Washington St & Xavier (a tough 14-draw in SEC Champ Georgia) better watch out. However, both dodge the traditional profile, as both played multiple games in last year’s tourney, and return 3 or 4 starters.