Like Christmas Eve - A Maniac Thank You

By far the best analogy I heard all day came from a friend of mine describing the feeling tonight for "us."  And when I say "us" I mean you and me; the people who read and write this sort of drivel that is largely irrelevant to 99% of the population.  It is a culture shock here in Florida after our recent move.  Sports radio stations go out of there way to tell you what a niche sport college hoops is, and that other than these three weeks, no one cares...

So, for those of us giddy tonight on "Christmas Eve", a big huge THANK YOU from the Maniac.  I like to joke that we have 22 readers, and the truth is, I have no idea how many of you actually read on a daily (or annual...) basis.  I do know we registered nearly 7,000 hits this year, so a big thanks to Mom's itchy mouse finger, and to all of you out there following along.  It is honestly really cool to know you're out there, anticipating the bounty under tomorrow's tree, just like me.

I'd like to offer you a true and sincere, Happy Holidays.

Now onto the Madness:

Maniac's Day One Picks:

BYU - 4 v Florida:  I hope my "Florida should be in the NIT" bias doesn't cloud my judgment. On a neutral floor I just believe Jimmer Fredette and the Cougs are 10-12 points better.  I like BYU laying the points.

Notre Dame -2.5 v. Old Dominion:  The Irish are as hot as anyone in the country right now.  ODU is a really solid team, and I think they'd be in this field regardless of whether or not they won the underrated CAA Conference Tournament or not (they did).  ODU could get to the Sweet Sixteen, but they match-up really poorly with Notre Dame and really don't have an answer for Harangody.  I like Tory Jackson maintaining his recent senior surge into, dare I say, "smart game manager" and the Irish getting a date with Baylor in Round Two.

Robert Morris +18 v. Villanova:  I'm not worried about 'Nova...yet.  However, they strike me as an undersized, slumping team that is a prime candidate to let a team hang around for just long enough to get people a little jazzed...Gimme RM and the points.

Murray State +3.5 v. Vanderbilt:  OK, Vegas has confirmed my gut-feel that Murray State is a legit threat to pull off one of the more eye-opening upsets in round one.  I thought I'd get a few more points, but I honestly think Murray State has the tough blend of moxy and quickness that can give a more tempo-controlling team like the 'Dores fits.  Add in the fact that Vandy's record is slightly inflated due to their home-court dominance and this game has "upset" written all over it.  It may not be a game I'd advise touching in Vegas in terms of value (I'd think Murray would get 6-7), but I'm picking all 16 games, so gimme the Racers and the points.

North Texas v. Kansas State -16 - As long as it isn't the Jayhawks on the other bench, K-State is pretty solid.  Look for them to roll in the tourney debut in an unprecedentedly high seed.

Sam Houston State v. Baylor-11 -- I love the Bears as a real Final Four sleeper.  They haven't won a tourney game in over fifty years.  That draught will be all but over by halftime.  Gimme the Bears big.

St. Mary's v. Richmond -2 -- This is a real funky matchup, as St. Mary's will struggle with the quickness of Richmond's backcourt, while at the same time I don't think Richmond has an answer inside for Omar Samhan inside.  It really comes down to controlling tempo and knocking down shots...which is a tough thing to predict.  However, I really like Richmond as a true sleeper in the tournament, so I'll take the tough two-point lay early and roll with the Spiders.

Butler -2.5 v UTEP -- Everyone is so enamored with how Butler's Matt Howard can possibly contain Dereck Caracter they forgot to factor in how is UTEP going to control Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward?  Oh, and Butler hasn't lost in several months.  They've fared fine against upper echelon competition in Xavier and Ohio State (albeit without ET).  Not to get ahead of ourselves, but IF they Bulldogs can get past the Miners, they could go on a nice run.  They match up real well with Syracuse, should they get that far.  They have versatile bigs and good shooting guards who don't turn the ballover and avoid getting trapped...I'm just saying..

Northern Iowa +1 v. UNLV -- The 8/9 toss-up, I'll take the size and poise of the Panthers.  I like the MWC, but not sold on UNLV.  They are a little erratic offensivly, though Lon Kruger is a historically good tournament coach.  Hmmm... almost talked myself back into UNLV.  Nah, gimme the Panthers (hard hitting analysis, huh?)

ETSU v. Kentucky -20 -- GO Big Blue!  Kentucky plays poorly against poor teams and excels against the very good ones.  Against the great ones?  You could argue no one knows yet, seeing as I'm not sure anyone in the SEC fits the bill, and annual tests against Indiana, North Carolina and Louisville weren't the stern test they look like on paper.  Can Coach Cal convince them Round One is the appropriate time to turn on the full-time greatness?  I'm not sure, but I'll lay the twenty fairly comfortably.

Washington v. Marquette -1.5 -- Very quietly Washington has put together the pieces of a shattered season and looks closer to the team ranked #15th in the pre-season polls.    Marquette is undersized, underappreciated and pound-for-pound as tough as any team in the country.  I'll take the gutty Eagles in a great ballgame.


Ohio +13.5 v. Georgetown -- Ohio is pretty lightly regarded and coming out of the WAY down MAC as the upset-tourney champ.  So why are they only getting 13.5?  Call this a straight contrarian pick.  Sometimes when an unknown team is getting WAY too few points, someone knows something I don't. 

Kansas -26 v Lehigh -- Who cares right?  I'd never actually bet a 1/16 game, so for today's column I'll take the Hawks blowing 'em out and coasting to a comfy 30-something win.

Wake Forest v Texas -5 -- I know, Texas is awful.  But nine weeks ago they were #1 in the country.  It wouldn't be the first time (see: Arizona 2009) a talent-laden team got it together for one last week of fight.  This 8/9 game has more NBA'ers on display than any I can remember, and if I'm Kentucky I really would prefer Wake in Round Two...

Montana v New Mexico -9 -- Alford's Lobo's have to be sick of seeing all the mock brackets that have them bowing out in the first weekend.  I this one could be surpriingly easy for Darrington Hobson and crew. 

San Diego State +3.5 v. Tennessee -- I think the Aztecs second-chance points can be the undoing of Bruce Pearl and the Vols, particualrly if they can get Chism in any kind of foul trouble.  I'm surprised you can get 3 points and SDSU.  It's a good value pick at the very least.

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Rock! Chalk! Chalk?

I admit, I have probably watched more college hoops than most of your TV analysts, and certainly more than John Thompson (who on the CBS Radio bracket unveiling, reacted to New Mexico State's #12 seed with a perplexing, "I thought they might'a did better.  New Mexico is pretty good now"). Yes John, they are pretty good.  Like a #3 seed.  This team is a different team than that team.  But he is right, Ex-Zay-Vey-Er is always dangerous in the "tuna-mint."

Seriously, I almost jerked my car off the road on accident.  By the way, my resume is attached to the bottom of this column...

Oh, if only someone would pay me the same ammount of money to cover hoops, the world would be a better place, both for me and my twenty two (or so) loyal readers.

But alas, the point.  After watching way, (yes honey, I agree, WAY too many) games this year, I admit we are right back where we started.  Kansas is the best team in the country.  They are the only team without a discernable fatal flaw.  Kentucky?  Too young, too sloppy at times with the ball.  Duke?  I think "too" is generally attached to Duke in so many ways it scantly bears repeating.  Syracuse?  To thin up front, especially with Onawaku dinged up.  West Virginia?  Point guard issues; too many turnovers, not a geat foul shooting team.  Kansas State & Baylor?  Good guards, decent interior defenders.  K-State's 0-3 versus big boy Kansas is a big red flag, and Baylor hasn't won a tourney game in over 50 years.  These lights are a lot brighter than the ones in Waco.  Villanova? In a total tailspin.  Georgetown?  Tantilizing, but why have they lost so many games (for the last time annoying emailers - Freeman did NOT miss as many games as you think.  They just LOST a lot).

Ohio State?  Not much depth, and despite winning the Big Ten tourney, LOOK at the Michigan and Illinois boxscore.  You won't see any teams that poor after round one.  Purdue, Michigan St and Wisconsin all make the Big Ten seem...well, Little.

Speaking of "little" could it be the year of the little guy?  Butler, Temple, Xavier, Richmond and Gonzaga hardly seem "mid" major by now (with the exception of the Spiders).  But does anyone really see any of these clubs getting all the way to Indy?  (my sleeper Final Four team is easily Butler, and it is all match-ups and draw and a versitile 4-man who can work in the high paint against the zone and pass out of traps).  But aside from me - anyone honestly see this group crashing the party??

Which brings us back to square one.  How do you convincingly go anywhere other than the KU Rock "Chalk?"  I hate the brackets with the three one seeds in the Final Four, and then the edgy "off the wall" #2.  Upsets are going to happen this year, but picking them is anyone's best guess. 

I can make a pretty good statistical arguement for about forty different scenarios, all different depending on a few key plays, a few kind whistles, and the siezmic changes in the landscape of the tourney that follow.

So, one final admonishment to all of you with some machismo - leave KU off your CHAMP line.  Are they the best team in the field?  Yes.  Does the best team ALWAYS win?  No.  In fact, in the past 10 years it has happened four, arguably five times.  (UNC 06 & 09, Mich St 00, UConn 04 - and I suppose UF in 07). 

Anything can happen, and let's be honest, saying "I told you so" if Kansas wins won't have near the satisfaction if you hit on Ohio State, West Virginia, Duke, or ANY of the field...

Besides, have you seen Kansas's uniforms?  Mom says they're terrible...



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Five Value Bets for the Vegas-Inclined

Look, anyone who tells you they are "good at tournament pools" is a moron.  Seriously.  They are dumb.  It is equivalent to the person who is good at "being lucky."  Not only is it moronic, it's oxymoronic.

OK, to everyone who has it all figured out.  What if Evan Turner doesn't hit a 37-footer at the buzzer in the first round to beat Big Ten #8 Michigan?  It's an early entry for the Bucks and perhaps their 2 seed in the "deepest bracket of all time" seems like a softer draw than say, Georgetown or West Virginia would have been.  Certainly softer than Kansas State.

Does Evan Turner make the Buckeyes dynamic?  You better believe it.  Our loyal readers know we were about two months ahead of the ET-sycophants and had him as our National POY from Day One... yet I digress.  There will be plenty of time (and an entire column) for "I Told You So's."

Now, predicting a tournament?  Nearly impossible.  Analyzing game-to-game matchups, not so impossible.  But in a massive tournament where one bounc changes the entire future field, anyone NOT picking chalk and proclaiming some clairvoyance is simply a little off.

What we can do, however is talk "value."  Here are the Maniac's Five Value Picks to cut down the nets in Indy, based on Danny Sheridan's Odds.

1.  Duke (8:1)
Why does everyone hate Duke so much?  I have heard they are soft.  Throw out the Georgetown game (everyone gets a mulligan, perhaps Georgetown used theres less judiciously at home against Old Dominion...seriously, look at some of Georgetown's losses all ye' bandwagoners...) and I fail to see a "soft" team.  If their style of play was played by player who looked differently the athleticism and toughness  questions would never arise.  It's true.  Singler is a goofy looking dude and Scheyer wouldn't be your first pick at the local JCC.  However, in all reality Duke defends exceptionally well on ball screens and does a good job pressuring the ball and making it difficult to initiate offense. 

I read a stat that Duke's 43% FG range was terrible (it is below average) and they are ripe for an upset.  However, consider their dazzlingly low turnover rate, the fact they shoot a tremendous volume of 3's and the emergence of Zoubek and Plumlee on the offensive glass and what you get is one of the most efficient, in terms of points per possession, teams in the country.

Their points for/points against ratio is also one of the top in the nation, and don't tell me they didn't play a solid, challenging schedule.

As more than one coach has deadpanned for the camera when asked the key to victory; "Score more points."

Factor in what is being touted as a soft region (I agree, Villanova "swooned" late - you know why?  Their schedule was backloaded and they lost to teams better than them.  If they are #6 on the S-Curve something is really wrong...), and 8:1 becomes more attractive.  If I told you that in a year of relative parity ou could have a team at 8:1 heading into the Final Four, you'd take it, no questions asked.  That kiddies, is what makes Duke the top value on the board.

2.  Baylor (50:1)
Man, this one is absurd.  Is Baylor winning it all?  Probably not.  Is there any team in their region (Duke, Villanova) leaps and bounds better than them?  Folks, there isn't. Tweety Carter, LaceDarius Dunn and Ekpe Udoh are as good a "Big Three" as anyone in the country boasts.  Udoh is probably the best shot blocker in the tourney (since Mississippi State got screwed) and their backcourt is lightening quick, explosive and the highest scoring in BCS conferences.  They have mid-range guys who can go out on the perimeter and score off the bounce.  Does that sound like a recipe that gives a certain team trouble??  Correct, see above.

At 50:1, I'd drop a ten spot on Baylor and hope they make it to the Final Four.  At that point, you have great leverage to hedge the bet and really enjoy March Madness.

3.  New Mexico (75:1)
Has Danny Sheridan watched any college basketball this season?  Did he realize the Lobo's were a 3-seed?  Was he perhaps confused and thought it meant Rebecca "Lobo"?  Again, if we are talking value, anyone who will give you 75:1 for a three-seed (I know, what about Pitt at 75:1, Maniac?  But that's different - Pitt sucks.  Tell me the last time they out-played their seed in the tourney?  Exactly.)  in a parity-driven "down" year that saw more teams ranked in the Top 25 than any season in college hoops history; TAKE IT.  Great value bet.

4.  West Virginia (10:1)
The point guard play scares me a bit, but their only real road block en route to Indy is Kentucky.  I think WVU is deep enough scoring-threat wise to trade punches and rebounds well enough to control tempo and prevent Kentucky from running out.  In a half-court game I am not sure the Cats can make enough shots to win three games in a row (the #16 is a virtual bye).  The Mountaineers seem to be peaking at the right time and have a stone-cold clutch winner in De'Sean Butler; ironically, close friends with Evan Turner, as they have similar skill-sets and big shot mojo.  I'd say it is fair to call Butler a poor-man's ET, but keep in mind Butler has SIX game winning shots this year, and was monsterous in a second half comeback over...yup, Ohio State back in January.


5. Worst Values on the Board!
There are a few to choose from.  First off, Purdue at 55:1 is ludicrous.  Purdue at 500:1 still seems like laying money on Bernie Madoff.  Is there any possible way this team gets to the Final Four?  I really don't think so.  That said, I'm not giving the opener to Siena, nor the second rounder to Texas A&M.  Purdue still has a decent core of talent, they just laid an egg an an inopportune time on national TV Saturday.  It happens.  However, I saw what Duke did to them live and in person last year in Mackey Arena, and that was a full-strength Purdue team and a worse Duke team. It's a terrible matchup for Purdue without Hummel as they lack someone else to exploit Duke's relative diffculty with versatile 3/4s.

Wisconsin is terribly over-seeded, and Vandy is a sucker bet at 50:1 and 80:1 respectivly.  I wouldn't be surprised to see both go home the first weekend.

Lastly, as much as I have loved Syracuse all year, with the lack of depth and the injury to Onawaku, plus the fact they could have to beat Kentucky AND Kansas back-to-back in Indy; I need more than 6:1 to pull the trigger on that one.  Give me 10:1 and we're talking value.  6:1 is a little thin.

Enjoy the tournament.  And, seriously kids, gamblin' is bad.  The Maniac just uses odds and numbers to try and show how smart he is...

Some Madness In the Madness

I actually heard someone on the radio during my two-hour drive today (major network) insinuate that the ommission of Mississippi State is a prime example of why the tournament needs to expand.

I couldn't agree more.  Let's blow up the greatest three weeks in American sports for Mississippi State. Makes prefect sense to me.

But alas there are a few teams with legit reason for some madness at being left out of the Madness (and yes, the Bulldogs are probably the foremost). 

Stop me if you've heard this one before: Seth Greenberg and Virginia Tech got screwed.  Granted the author of the quote is usually none other than Seth Greenberg, but this time, the Maniac will echo his sentiments.  And for all those of you who say "you shouldn't have gotten blasted by Miami in the ACC tourney" I say, hold on just a quick second.

You know who else bowed out early in their conference tourney?  This year's most glaring over-seed and ill-admission, the Florida Gators.  Perhaps the committee owed Jeremy Foley a favor or was afraid to see a "marquee" coach's seat get quite as hot as Billy's D's en route to NIT-Three... The Hokies finished THIRD in a conference that sent SIX teams to the Dance, including Georgia Tech.  Granted the Jackets made it all the way to the ACC final, but their regualr season ACC performance was 7-9.  Read it again.   Seven and Nine.  That puts them three full games behind the Hokies in conference.

So... if conference tournaments are that important, let's put every deep advancer IN the the Dance.  And that's exactly HOW it happened.  Read: Minnesota.  The Gophers were outclassed by Illinois all Big Ten season, but in tourney play The Gohpers beat Sparty in OT, and the Illini failed to get off a game-winning attempt in regulation, and again in OT against Ohio State.  When the clock finally expired in Double OT, the Illini's season was over.  Perhaps if they instead drew the depleted Boilermakers (like Minnesota) it would be Chief Illini and the ridiculous headdress this March.  On a side note - Congrats Tubby.

Conference tourney's matter.  The committee showed this clearly.  Georgetown's deep run launched them from a 4/5 to a solid #3 and Notre Dame's Semi-Final run took them from "bubble" to six seed.  Baylor's nice late tourney run landed them as the pesky #3 seed no one knows enough about and Cal's near-win against Washington landed them on safe ground as a #8.

In fact, every major conference conference finalist MADE the tourney...EXCEPT Mississippi State.  To make things further perplexing, espite rolling Florida and Vandy en route to a thrilling OT loss to Kentucky (the second time they had UK flat-out BEAT this season) and finsihing with the same record (9-7) in conference, and a one-game better record overall, a last week win OVER the Gators and an RPI one spot higher... the final spot goes to???? The Gators.

Look, I get that a lot of my readers are Gator fans, and I also get that one stupid ten seed (or eleven or twelve) is not that big of a deal.  My only point is, with THOSE numbers I just gave you, HOW is Florida a #10 and Missippis State is completely OUT?

By every quantifiable number the Bulldogs are equal or better.  RPI, conference record, play down the stretch, quality wins, head-to-head on a neutral floor three days before the selection process, and overall record.... HMMMM.  That's all I'm saying.  HMMMMMM.

OK, onto my awards for the Selection Committee:
Most over-seeded teams:

1.  Florida (in case you missed that point earlier)

2.  Wisconsin as a #4.  if the tourney were played in the Kohl Center, perhaps.  I think the committee placed far too high a premium on pre-conference HOME wins over Duke and Marquette.  Down the stretch, the Badgers were average at best

3.  New Mexico State as a #12.  A number 12 means they were a bubble team had they not earned the auto-bid by upsetting Utah State.  I have no problem with Utah State as a #12, but New Mexico State?? Would they have even been in the First Ten Out had they not won?  No, of course not.  So HOW are they a #12 while Siena is a #13?

Under-Seeded Teams:

1.  Temple as a #5.  They win the A-10 Regular Season, they won the A-10 Tourney.  They are 27-5 with an RPI of #9.  How this team fell to a #5 behind teams like Vandy, Pitt (LOOK at their non-conference schedule, nothing of quality with losses to Texas and INDIANA), and Wisconsin is baffling to me.

2.  Butler as a #5.  They played a solid non-conference slate.  Then they went 16-0 and won their conference tourney.  The Horizon league isn't a dazzler but you can't ask for more than perfection.   Last year they fell in the conference tourney and Cleveland State went out and bounced #4 Wake Forest... They also have an RPI of #12 with wins over Xavier and Ohio State...

3.  BYU as a #7.   Perhaps Florida will at least get their due as the over-seeded #10 to face the under-seeded #7.  Let's just close our eyes and call it what it is: a 5/12 classic.

Isn't it Ironic?

Don't worry, there is no intention of linking a topless photo of Alanis Morisette on this post... seriously, that scared me...

It is an ironic afternoon in college hoops, with more than a few interesting coincidences occuring.

Today Purdue will look to become the #1 team in the country (not really, Syracuse will be #1 no maktter what in my estimation) when they host the Michigan State Spartans.  Last month Purdue beat State in Lansing while their top player, Kalin Lucas, was injured (yes he played sparingly).  Today, the tables turn as Sparty heads to Lafayette to meet the Boilers sans Robbie Hummel.

Tennessee, who was left for dead with little chance of posting bail just seven weeks ago now owns victories over the top two teams in the country, and two sure-fire #1 seeds in Kansas and Kentucky.  No one else in the nation can boast such an accomplishment.  Even more impressive, they were one possession away from beating Purdue way back in November.  That would have given them possibly three wins over #1 seeds.

Iowa?  Terrible.  Indiana?  Even worse.  New Mexico?  In line for a #2 seed after beating BYU in Provo yesterday.  Hats off to Steve Alford and his Lobos.  I'm interested to see how well they handle March Madness.  As of now they are 6-0 against ranked opponents.

 North Carolina finally got a conference win yesterday to keep their plus-.500 NIT hopes alive.  Their struggles have deflected attention from the truly worst team and coaching performance in the country, the absolute meltdown in Austin.  Texas lost again yesterday to fall to 5-7 over their last 12 games.  At seventh place in the Big 12, and looking at their final 12 games one could argue the Longhorns are inching close to the bubble (exaggeration, they are safely in).  It is hard to put them any higher than a #7 seed if the tourney started today.


And in a final ironic twist, how about Cincinnati blowing a 17-point lead to West Virginia, essentially ending their hopes of going to the NCAA Tournament.  The Bearcats still have not made the field of 65 since now-West Virginia coach Bobby Huggins patrolled the sidelines in the Queen City.  I am sure Bobby is was far above such pettiness, but one has to think "suck it Nancy Zimpher" entered his head on several occasions...