So, for those of us giddy tonight on "Christmas Eve", a big huge THANK YOU from the Maniac. I like to joke that we have 22 readers, and the truth is, I have no idea how many of you actually read on a daily (or annual...) basis. I do know we registered nearly 7,000 hits this year, so a big thanks to Mom's itchy mouse finger, and to all of you out there following along. It is honestly really cool to know you're out there, anticipating the bounty under tomorrow's tree, just like me.
I'd like to offer you a true and sincere, Happy Holidays.
Now onto the Madness:
Maniac's Day One Picks:
BYU - 4 v Florida: I hope my "Florida should be in the NIT" bias doesn't cloud my judgment. On a neutral floor I just believe Jimmer Fredette and the Cougs are 10-12 points better. I like BYU laying the points.
Notre Dame -2.5 v. Old Dominion: The Irish are as hot as anyone in the country right now. ODU is a really solid team, and I think they'd be in this field regardless of whether or not they won the underrated CAA Conference Tournament or not (they did). ODU could get to the Sweet Sixteen, but they match-up really poorly with Notre Dame and really don't have an answer for Harangody. I like Tory Jackson maintaining his recent senior surge into, dare I say, "smart game manager" and the Irish getting a date with Baylor in Round Two.
Robert Morris +18 v. Villanova: I'm not worried about 'Nova...yet. However, they strike me as an undersized, slumping team that is a prime candidate to let a team hang around for just long enough to get people a little jazzed...Gimme RM and the points.
Murray State +3.5 v. Vanderbilt: OK, Vegas has confirmed my gut-feel that Murray State is a legit threat to pull off one of the more eye-opening upsets in round one. I thought I'd get a few more points, but I honestly think Murray State has the tough blend of moxy and quickness that can give a more tempo-controlling team like the 'Dores fits. Add in the fact that Vandy's record is slightly inflated due to their home-court dominance and this game has "upset" written all over it. It may not be a game I'd advise touching in Vegas in terms of value (I'd think Murray would get 6-7), but I'm picking all 16 games, so gimme the Racers and the points.
North Texas v. Kansas State -16 - As long as it isn't the Jayhawks on the other bench, K-State is pretty solid. Look for them to roll in the tourney debut in an unprecedentedly high seed.
Sam Houston State v. Baylor-11 -- I love the Bears as a real Final Four sleeper. They haven't won a tourney game in over fifty years. That draught will be all but over by halftime. Gimme the Bears big.
St. Mary's v. Richmond -2 -- This is a real funky matchup, as St. Mary's will struggle with the quickness of Richmond's backcourt, while at the same time I don't think Richmond has an answer inside for Omar Samhan inside. It really comes down to controlling tempo and knocking down shots...which is a tough thing to predict. However, I really like Richmond as a true sleeper in the tournament, so I'll take the tough two-point lay early and roll with the Spiders.
Butler -2.5 v UTEP -- Everyone is so enamored with how Butler's Matt Howard can possibly contain Dereck Caracter they forgot to factor in how is UTEP going to control Shelvin Mack and Gordon Hayward? Oh, and Butler hasn't lost in several months. They've fared fine against upper echelon competition in Xavier and Ohio State (albeit without ET). Not to get ahead of ourselves, but IF they Bulldogs can get past the Miners, they could go on a nice run. They match up real well with Syracuse, should they get that far. They have versatile bigs and good shooting guards who don't turn the ballover and avoid getting trapped...I'm just saying..
Northern Iowa +1 v. UNLV -- The 8/9 toss-up, I'll take the size and poise of the Panthers. I like the MWC, but not sold on UNLV. They are a little erratic offensivly, though Lon Kruger is a historically good tournament coach. Hmmm... almost talked myself back into UNLV. Nah, gimme the Panthers (hard hitting analysis, huh?)
ETSU v. Kentucky -20 -- GO Big Blue! Kentucky plays poorly against poor teams and excels against the very good ones. Against the great ones? You could argue no one knows yet, seeing as I'm not sure anyone in the SEC fits the bill, and annual tests against Indiana, North Carolina and Louisville weren't the stern test they look like on paper. Can Coach Cal convince them Round One is the appropriate time to turn on the full-time greatness? I'm not sure, but I'll lay the twenty fairly comfortably.
Washington v. Marquette -1.5 -- Very quietly Washington has put together the pieces of a shattered season and looks closer to the team ranked #15th in the pre-season polls. Marquette is undersized, underappreciated and pound-for-pound as tough as any team in the country. I'll take the gutty Eagles in a great ballgame.
Ohio +13.5 v. Georgetown -- Ohio is pretty lightly regarded and coming out of the WAY down MAC as the upset-tourney champ. So why are they only getting 13.5? Call this a straight contrarian pick. Sometimes when an unknown team is getting WAY too few points, someone knows something I don't.
Kansas -26 v Lehigh -- Who cares right? I'd never actually bet a 1/16 game, so for today's column I'll take the Hawks blowing 'em out and coasting to a comfy 30-something win.
Wake Forest v Texas -5 -- I know, Texas is awful. But nine weeks ago they were #1 in the country. It wouldn't be the first time (see: Arizona 2009) a talent-laden team got it together for one last week of fight. This 8/9 game has more NBA'ers on display than any I can remember, and if I'm Kentucky I really would prefer Wake in Round Two...
Montana v New Mexico -9 -- Alford's Lobo's have to be sick of seeing all the mock brackets that have them bowing out in the first weekend. I this one could be surpriingly easy for Darrington Hobson and crew.
San Diego State +3.5 v. Tennessee -- I think the Aztecs second-chance points can be the undoing of Bruce Pearl and the Vols, particualrly if they can get Chism in any kind of foul trouble. I'm surprised you can get 3 points and SDSU. It's a good value pick at the very least.
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