Christmas Bracketeering - Dec 27th, 2009

It has been about three weeks since our last poll, and many things have started to sort themselves out. From the outset we have had Texas in the top slot and have taken plenty of heat for it. Even during these times of Christmas cheer, there is still nothing I enjoy more than saying "I told you so." After consecutive wins over North Carolina and Michigan State, both by double digits, in a three day span, it is hard to dispute the Longhorns are deserving of their slot.

Meanwhile out West, just when we were ready to bury the Pac 10 pre-season co-favorite Washington seems to have woken up. With dominating wins over Portland and Texas A&M the Huskies showed it may have been to early to write them off. Even more impressive? They may not be the best team in the beleaguered Pac-10. We'll save our answer for #16 in this week's Bracketeering.

And alas, the Maniac has long been championing the case of the mid-major but admits the usual suspects are making it tough this year. Gonzaga took one of the most severe beatings I've witnessed to Duke, losing by 35 in game Duke could have easily won by 50. Memphis looks pedestrian at best and has lost to lowly UMass, Xavier continues to struggle offensively and Butler is flirting with the title of most overrated team in the country in the preseason polls (relax Bulldogs, there's still Cal...). Isn't it ironinc when the most overrated teams in the AP polls are #21 Butler and #25 Gonzaga?!? Not all is lost for the mid-majors though, check out spots #11 & #15 for our favorites so far.

I hope everyone got what they wanted under the tree this year. And for anyone who needs a little more hoops in their stocking, we appreciate you forwarding us their way!

Enjoy the special Maniac Christmas edition of Bracketeering.

FINAL FOUR:

1. Texas - Avery Bradley is the best freshman not named John Wall or Xavier Henry. Funny more people haven't heard of him yet, but rest assured, everyone will soon. Texas has been flawless in December and has us anticipating the Feb 8th matchup versus Kansas with bated breath. It is a shame that unbalanced scheduling will only give us these two once in 2010 (until the conference tourney final and possibly the Final Four...)

2. Kentucky - A little high? One could argue Syracuse has done more and that Kansas HAS more. What is indisputable though is that the most breathtaking collection of freshman talent since Michigan 1992 is starting to gel and settle into their roles. The results have been impressive of late. While broadcasters slobber over John Wall like he's Brett Farve, watch the play of fellow freshman backcourt mate Eric Bledsoe. Were it not for Farve... er, Wall, he might be touted as the best freshman PG in the country.

3. Syracuse - They've done absolutely nothing to merit dropping a spot in Bracketeering. The only reason? We do it a little different then the polls, rather than moving up or down a prescribed number of slots predicated solely on who wins and losses above and below you, we try to rank the teams on how well they are actually playing basketball. Syracuse has essentially not played in three weeks (St Bonnie, Oakland and St Francis). I'm curious to see how the layoff affects the Orange tomorrow night against a scrappy Jeremy Hazell and Seton Hall.

4. Kansas - The Jayhawks looked good playing a dissapointing, but athletic Michigan team and dispatched a better-than-their-record Cal club to move to 11-0. However they have yet to face a single Top 25 team and have played only one game out of the friendly confines of the Phogg. Call me a hater (and many of you already have) but I still am perplpexed how KU is a unanimous #1 in the AP Poll when the three teams listed above have done so much more in the early going.

ELITE EIGHT:

5. Duke - Yes, they lost to Wisconsin earlier, but anyone who watched them eviscerate Gonzaga with pressure defense, tremendous ballhandling and the best (yes, we said best) backcourt in the country has to walk away impressed with the Devils. Singler, Scheyer and Smith have done it against Gonzaga, handled the athleticism of UConn and beat a now-ranked Charlotte team by 50 earlier this season. I know it is fashionable to beat on Duke these days, but Coach K finally has a team with Final Four talent again.

6. Purdue - No reason to doubt them, but no real reason to believe they are definitivley better than last year's version (which is essentially the same exact team a year older). Other than the one-point win over Tennessee the schedule has been pretty pedestiran. They showed some scrap coming back at Alabama, but the Tide are by no means a tourney team in 2010. It will be interesting to see if the Boilers can dominate in Big Ten play. I suspect they drop 4-6 games in conference. That isn't to say they are not a very good team, but there is a talent disparity between them and the five listed above them (and possibly a few below).

7. West Virginia - The showed some guts winning in OT at Seton Hall in the first of the never-ending slew of road tests the BEast will provide, BUT the late collapse that necessitated OT is cause for some concern. We'll keep the 'Eers 7th for now, but obviously the Jan 1st game at Purdue looms large.

8.UConn - A three point loss to Kentucky at Rupp should not be cause for alarm. What is cause for concern is the lack of development by "savior" Ater Majok in his long awaited joining of the team. They desperately need to find another scorer to help out Kemba Walker, Dyson and Robinson, and hope Majok can be it; still defensively the Huskies are as good as anyone.

Sweet and lurking: The next tier

9. Kansas State - Overlooked in the preseason perhaps, but the Wildcats should have everyone's attention by now. In their last four games they have beaten Xavier, UNLV, Alabama and Washington State all by AT LEAST 13 points. They are a clear notch below Texas and Kansas, but not many other teams in the country. Frank Martin has done a heck of a job getting the Wildcats to legitimate respectability in 2010.

10. North Carolina - I'm still not in love with the early results, but continue to contend UNC has a higher ceiling than any other team in the ACC and is a legit Final Four challenger. Tonight's sleepwalker against Rutgers would have gotten them beat by 9 of the 11 other teams in the ACC. Let's hope for their sake Roy wakes them up before conference play kicks off.

11. Temple - One thing I have always loved about the Owls was their unabashed approach to scheduling big. It has led to plenty of 19-12 seasons...and subsequent 11 or 12th seeded "upset" wins in the tourney. Christmas has passed (both the player and the season) but these Owls have wins over Penn State, Villanova and at Seton Hall in their last four games.

12. Georgetown - Wins over Temple, Washington and Butler make up for the home loss against Old Dominion. The 16 point bounce back win over Harvard is a better win that it would appear on paper as well. The Hoyas will be a Top 5 team in the Big East all year...and that is good enough to be a Top 16 team in Bracketeering any day.

13. Villanova - Not in love with this team, but they have stacked up a few quality wins and haven't lost any glaring games (Temple was unranked, but shouldn't have been). Their early conference schedule is soft enough that they should continue to climb in the polls, with next real test (aside from @ Marquette) is Jan 17th hosting the above Hoyas.

14. Michigan State - Something hasn't quite clicked yet this year for Sparty, but something tells me Izzo will have that straightened out by March. Their losses; @ Florida, @ Texas, and @ UNC are all really valuable learning experiences. I'd trade Michigan State's 8-3 with anyone elses in the country. However their best wins are Gonzaga by 4 and... and... um.... Valpo? UMass? Wofford??

15. UAB - While everyone was glamming Tulsa as the new challenger to Memphis's C-USA throne, Mike Davis's Blazers have stormed into national consciousness. In the past three weeks they have taken down Cincinnati, South Alamaba and Butler; all by double digits in controlling fashoin. Their only loss is Kent State was back in the second game of the year. The Blazers have put themselves in rare non-Memphis territory - at-large participants even if they lose the C-USA tourney.

16. USC - I know, the Pac-10 sucks. I know, the Trojans have 4 losses, more than a lot of ranked teams I left out (like Washington (my #17 for the record), Wisconsin, Ohio State, Northwestern, New Mexico, Tennessee, Texas Tech...etc). However, in three of the last four games USC has posted the following wins:

Tennessee 77-57
St Mary's 60-49
UNLV 67-56

Hard to find a much better run anywhere outside the top 15, so we're giving SC the nod, with apologies to those listed above.

Yup, that's three BIG wins...

Bracket Busts: Some early season disappointments
Cal, Notre Dame, UCLA, Davidson (they miss Steph, but they have been really really bad with a brutal schedule), Memphis, Xavier, Butler, Oklahoma, DePaul (lost to Floida Gulf Coast this week - unacceptable for a Big East team), Creighton, Auburn, Tulsa, The Pac-10!

Half Court Heaves: Teams outside the common radar worth keeping an eye on
Dayton, Rhode Island, UTEP, South Florida, Coastal Carolina, Western Carolina, Murray State, Harvard, Cornell, Northwestern, Minnesota, William & Mary, VCU and ODU (The CAA conference really), Oral Roberts, Northern Colorado, St. Mary's, Lousiana Tech, Niagara, Miami (OH) - the best 3-9 team EVER, Wichita State & Missouri State, Long Beach State

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

A Crime of Passion

Imagine this: North Carolina last year, with a number 1 seed assured, decides to sit Tyler Hansbrough, Wayne Ellington, Ty Lawson, Danny Green; essentially throwing the ACC Championship.

Let's go four years back. St Joseph's, with a number one seed long-since sewn up decides to "lose on purpose" before the NCAA tourney in order to prevent an unlikely injury to Jameer Nelson or Delonte West.

Never happen you say? Of course not, not in college basketball. At least not yet.

Yesterday in Indianapolis, the Colts did precisely that. Leading 15-10 late in the third quarter over the Jets (coincidentally fighting for their playoff lives) decided to pull Peyton Manning and their starters. Never mind that Peyton has not missed a single game in his dozen plus years in the NFL. Apparently the risk of injury was more important that the integrity of the game; more important than a chance at becoming a legend; a chance to become Sports Gods immortal.

Most of you know what happened next. The second and third stringers looked hopeless, and the hope of the perfect season was quickly dashed, 29-15.

Not that the Colts apparently cared.

"Lay Down", I got 'cha Coach... can I stay in the game now??

Every year someone will take home the "ultimate" prize. This year someone will. Next year someone will. The year after that. And, yep, barring a 2012-like cataclysm, someone will again. And again. And again.

Folks, there's a reason Mercury Morris was given 3+ minutes to "rap" on Sportscenter last year. It wasn't because he won a Superbowl. It wasn't because of his hip-hop proclivity (in fact, Biz Markee said "Oh - SNAP - this guy su-ucks."). It was because in 1972 he and his Dolphins did something no other football team has ever done. The perfect season, the thing all football athletes strive for...except of course if you own, manage, or coach the Colts.

It is unlikely that Kentucky, Syracuse or the winner of Texas/Kansas can even approach such a historic feat on the court this season. No one since Indiana in 1975 has. Very, very few have even come close.

But you can bet each one of them, if the opportunity avails, will be trying like hell to be more than champions. They will strive to be what every athlete's coaches implore them passionately to be, what every athlete strives for from the first day he or she puts on his or her uniform...

Their very best.

I have to wonder today, if when the '72 Dolphins pop their traditional bottle of champagne if it; like the Colts since of history, drive and passion; will too taste a little flat.

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

The Belly of the BEast

The Maniac is finally able to sit after gorging on obscene amounts of Christmas Feastings. It got me thinking about who might be feasting and who might be looking at a famine in the bountiful upcoming Big East buffet.

* (Maniac's Note: Each team plays all 15 teams once, and three random teams twice. Ergo, schedule really really matters when the difference is one or two wins)

The Middle of the BEast:
Nearly everyone from the Big East enters conference play at 9-1, 10-1, 11-2, or 8-3 at worst. Assuming Syracuse, West Virginia, Villanova and UConn as tourney locks, that leaves three to an unlikely five bids likely up for grabs. So who will separate themselves from the pack and battle for bids five through eight (and possibly nine) that the conference will receive?

Cincinnati - The Cats looked great early, but have slipped the last few weeks. At 8-3, they will need to go 10-8 in conference to feel safe, but do benefit from drawing Villanova, Syracuse, Georgetown and West Virginia only once. The only of the sure-fire tourney teams they get twice is UConn. If they handle the games they should win, the Cats will be in good shape in March.

Georgetown - The obvious favorite, but the Hoyas looked to be at exactly the same spot last year. The home loss to Old Dominion makes me at least aware that the Hoyas as not in lock status yet. Their mid-conference tussle with Duke is an aggressive, yet daring chance to steal a win that tips the scales in their favor should they find themselves muddled in a big group with eight to ten conference wins.

Marquette - The Eagles were the early darling after wins over Xavier and Michigan. All of a sudden, neither of those wins are over a ranked team (or tourney lock) and the losses to Florida State, Wisconsin and NC State represent the only other quality opponents en route to their 8-3 start. The Eagles will have some work to do in conference and feel like a team we will be talking about needing a win or two in the conference tourney to feel safely in the field of 65.

Notre Dame - Doesn't it feel like Luke Harangody has been here forever? The senior All-American might be feeling like he is living his career in reverse, Benjamin Snooze Button style. Each year, instead of growing up, it feels like the Irish regress. The Irish are 11-2, and like all league team, are only a 10-8 conference record away from the Big Dance. After home losses to Loyola Marymount and missing an opportunity for a quality win against Northwestern, the resume is shockingly blank. Their three best wins are probably UCLA, Long Beach State and UCF. That leaves a lot of work to be done in conference, and not much preparation for the task ahead. Looks like the "duck" of the Irish might do them in this season.

St John's - It is easy to be a little down on the Johnnies after their 71-66 loss to Cornell, but as our faithful readers already know, Cornell is really good. I'm calling my shot three months early and tagging them the 13 seed to be afraid of. Their only other loss is a respectable 9-pointer to Duke. They have wins over Temple and Siena. Only the Owls give them a chip to play outside of conference wins they amass. It is going to take 10-8, and I'm not sure they are quite good enough to get that many wins, but 8 or 9 and a bubble perch is not out of the question. The scheduling Gods have done them a favor, as they play each of the top five teams in conference (the four locks and G'Town) only once each. They get L'ville, Pitt and DePaul twice.

Louisville - What to make of Pitino and the Cards? They are the toughest team to get a read on. The were blasted by Charlotte and Western Carolina at home. They have beaten the hell out of Oral Roberts and Western Kentucky who have some good wins on their resumes. The Jan 2nd game against Kentucky provides an opportunity to gain some desperatly needed confidence and momentum. Assuming they do not pull the upset, the Cards have left themselves a lot of work to do in conference play. The Big East is a tough place to do that. They get Syracuse and UConn twice, and go to Morgantown in their lone shot at the Mountaineers.

Seton Hall - The Pirates were the trendy pick preseason to make the "leap" into the top half of the BEast. They might, but so far The Maniac just doesn't see it. Their best wins are Cornell and UMass. They really haven't played the schedule to prepare them for what is coming. I think everyone might get a preview of that tomorrow when they play WVU. They play WVU twice, but go to 'Nova, to G'town and to UConn in their lone meetings. That is a recipe for losses and a lack of quality wins over ranked opponents. It has the makings of a Providence 2008-2009 like resume for the Pirates. However, the one saving grace might be the final four conference games are all very winnable. That late momentum surge could pop the bubble in the Pirates favor.

Pitt - Was it really ten months ago the Panthers were ranked #1 in the nation?!? It feels like a lot longer, not just for me, but also for Jamie Dixon. The young Panthers have looked good at times, beating Wichita State and playing a good first half against Texas, but their resume is really thin. A double-digit loss to Indiana is a sub-RPI 100 loss and it is hard to imagine them picking up more than 7-8 wins in conference, though home&home's with St Johns and Seton Hall might give them a chance to earn a bid in a mano y mano y mano slugfest.

South Florida - An easy team to dismiss into the bottom four (with Rutgers, Providence and DePaul) if you haven't watched them play, but the Bulls are a much improved, and talent laden squad. They have an NBA-caliber talent in Dominque Jones, and are sitting at 10-2. They have wins over San Diego and Virginia and lost by just three to South Carolina and Central Michigan. They will have do some real work in conference, but the Bulls are no longer the gimme they might have been in past years. They get St. Johns and Notre Dame twice, so if the Bulls want it there is a chance to go take it.

Maniac's Crystal Ball:
IN: Georgetown, Cincinnati
BUBBLE IN: Louisville (Seton Hall, St. John's or Notre Dame) - IF eight or nine, depends a lot on conference tourneys and the Pac-10's sepatation in league play
BUBBLE OUT: South Florida, Marquette

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Best Wins & Worst Lossses of the Week

The past four days have produced more of their share of surprising results. Of course, whether it is a "good win" or a "bad loss" depends largely on the color jersey one is wearing...

Here's the Maniac's take on a great end to the bulk of the "non-conference" schedule

Sunday:

Kansas State took an 18 point lead in the first half, and cruised to an easy victory at Alabama. The Tide's record may not be strong, but they are tough at home and pushed a very good Purdue team to the final buzzer several weeks ago. I am on board with K State deserving a Top Ten slot in the Christmas Bracketeering Edition.

Arizona State might be the sleeper team in the Pac-10. Their 3-point win over San Diego State Sunday is one that will help come March.

Clemson absolutely hammered Charleston, 99-54. Charleston is not an upper tier team, but one would have thought Bobby Cremin's Cougars would have given their in-state big brother a better run.

Cleveland State is a far cry from last year's squad that upset Wake Forest in the first round. However their 80-78 loss to West Virginia gives the Mountaineer's a "bad loss" that won't show up in the RPI. Cleveland State followed up that daring near upset with a 13 point loss to wounded Ohio State. Cleveland State is 4-9 on the season, while WVU remains undefeated heading into a Christmas day tussle with Seton Hall.

I'm not sure whether to give Duke more credit or ring more panic alarms in Gonzaga after the Devils 76-41 pasting of the Zags. This one will loom large on Selection Sunday.

Illinois State notched a nice win for the Valley with their 73-63 win at Utah. The Valley and MWC are often pitted against each other for the few "spare" at large bids. This is nice win to have in the hip pocket.

Richmond continued the A-10's super play with a road win at the then-#13 Florida Gators. The Gators might be showing their hand a bit after another home loss (this time to South Alabama) followed. Richmond is one of five teams who can win the A-10 and contend for an at-large bid.

Speaking of the A-10, Temple did it again. This time they clipped undefeated Seton Hall in their own gym. This is looking like not only a tourney team, but a team that might be hanging around into the second weekend of March.

Mississippi State got a nice win at a tough Houston squad, and is continuing to look good after a tough few opening weeks.

Northwestern is going to be flirting with a Top 25 ranking real soon. The Wildcats moved to 10-1 with a win over Stanford. They are a legit at-large contender this season.

Not all was lost in the Pac-10 though, USC earned the conference's first legit win with their 22 point schelaacking of the Tennessee Volunteers. Washington took out a little frustration on Portland, pummeling the Pilots by 35. It is looking more and more likely that Portland's hot start was a bit of a mirage.

Wofford beating South Carolina? What is it with the SEC in December against low-major opponents? It seems an annual trend at this point

Any doubts about Texas's legitimacy to knock off Kansas in the Big 12 should have been erased after their 11 point over the Tarheels. This week Texas knocked off UNC and Michigan State in the span of three days. Sounds like a team tuning up for, say, a Final Four?

Old Dominion started the season as the CAA fave, only to take a few tough losses early. They put their name back in the mix in a BIG way with the best win of the weekend, a 61-57 win at Georgetown.

SUNDAY:

Sunday games always get lost in the media swell that is NFL Sunday. Here's a few important results that might have snuck past...

Florida State opened ACC play with a nice road win at Georgia Tech. Wake Forest defended their home turf beating NC State. The Maniac sees a lot of canibalization going on in the ACC this year, as teams three through nine are virtually impossible to distinguish between.

South Florida's 69-60 win at San Diego is a good one. The Bulls have little chance to compete in the upper tier of the BEast, but they have shown some solid improvement at 9-2 this season.

MONDAY:

Yes, Arizona's last second win was thrilling. But an 83-82 win over Lipscomb has to make Cat fans seriously wonder if their record NCAA Tourney appearance streak is about dead. The follow-up win (in equally thrilling fashion) over NC State last night was a HUGE one.

UTEP is looking more and more like a tourney team after my early season skepticism. Oklahoma is not very good yet, but a 15 point win over the Sooners is a solid W for UTEP. WIth Character rounding into form and Culpepper the Miners look like a real challenger to Tulsa, UAB and Memphis is C-USA.

The Big Red of Cornell got a BIG win, taking down ST. John's 71-66. The Johnnies have been good thus far, and are a legit possibility to finish in the top half of the BEast. Cornell looks like a 13 seed to be wary of in March.

TUESDAY:

Clemson followed up their hammering of Charleston with a nice 20 point win over Western Carolina. The win won't pop on paper, but this is the same Catamount team that throttled Louisville a few weeks ago.

The Gators slide continued with a heartbreaking buzzer-beater by South Alabama. The Jags will compete for the Sun Belt title, and Richmond likewise in the A-10, but back-to-back home losses are an unsettling sign for Gator fans heading into SEC East play.

More Big 12 dominance: Double digit wins for both Kansas and Texas over Cal and Michigan State. I think all us hoops junkies have the matchup between the Jayhawks and Longhorns circled. (Feb 8th)

WEDNESDAY:

Missouri moved to 8-3 with a nice 13 point win over Illinois. The Illini have not looked like a tourney team to this point, but is still a nice comparison win from the Big12-Big10 comparison.

Old Dominion beating Charlotte is not a stunner. Beating them 81-48 raised a few eyebrows. The 49'ers are 9-2 and were gaining steam in the polls. Their two losses are by a combined total of 75 points.

Oral Roberts got another big win, tackling previously unbeaten New Mexico 75-66. They have already beaten Stanford and Missouri. The Golden Eagles should contend for the Summit League title. New Mexico needs to regroup quickly with Texas Tech, Dayton, San Diego State, and UNLV next on the slate. We'll know exactly how good the Lobos are in two weeks.

Is USC for real? They followed up the decimation of Tennessee with a nearly-as-impressive win over a very good St. Mary's team. As much as the Pac-10 has been beaten up, Washington, USC and Washington State have been pretty respectable of late.

In the game of the night, West Virginia got their first show-me-somethin' win of the year beating Ole Miss 76-66. The Mountaineers have Final Four talent, and a game like this one helps gets them ready for Big East play.

TEAMS OF THE WEEKS:
USC, Texas, and Old Dominion

DROPS OF THE WEEK:
Florida, Gonzaga, Charlotte

Want More? Have something to Say?
Read, Rant, Agree, Disagree...Curse at Us (nicely please)
Do it all @ MarchManiacs.com

Quick picks

Oklahoma -3 v. UTEP
Kentucky -17.5 v. Drexel
St. Johns -4 v. Cornell
LaSalle +10 @ Oklahoma St.

UTEP is not a bad ballclub and will compete for the CUSA crown, but Willie Warren and the Sooners are beginning to gel. I like OU laying the three.

ESPN is really selling the "2000 wins" thing for the Kentucky game. Round numbers don't really excite me much, but it will be fun to watch the most talented team in the nation stretch their legs a bit tonight in front of the Rupp faithful. I like the Cats by a bunch.

The Maniac has been singing the praises of Cornell all year, and you can expect a glowing puff piece before the Cornell v Harvard game later this year. However, St Johns has been one of the most pleasant surprises in the country and is a potential tourney team a lot of people are still sleeping on. I like them to get another quality win to add to their growing collection tonight.

Lastly a sneaky LaSalle team tries to continue the A10's early season success tonight in Stillwater. I know the last time Ok State played a decent opponent they got their doors blown off. I don't know that LaSalle gets the upset but I do like them getting 10.

Weekend Record: 3-3
Overall: 26-15-1





- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone