Maniac Picks - Nov 18th

A New feature to March Maniacs - our fearless spread-friendly picks for some of the most intriguing games in the country. Of course we would NEVER endorse gambling - our picks are merely utilizing the spread to...um... make things more challenging! Yeah - that's it!

MANIAC PICKS!

Richmond @ Syracuse -15.5: The 'Cuse exorcise the demons of their historic tourney loss 17 years ago. Only in a lot less exciting fashion. Donte' Green has taken his first step towards D-League greatness, but the Orange have plenty in the fold. Johnny Flynn is NBA-good and Devendorf keeps defenses honest from long range. Plus that match-up zone is nightmares for non-conference opponents (perhaps because Boeheim hasn't scheduled a legit one in 20 years...)

PICK: Syracuse -15.5


Kentucky @ UNC -16.5: UNC begins their quest to capture the title many felt they should have grabbed last season. Hansbrough will sit, but the Heels have plenty of talent to make up for the POY's absence. Indiana's Luke Zeller shined in Hansbrough's absence in game one. (I guess Kelvin Sampson ran out of texts... how did this kid get away?) Kentucky looked abysmal losing to VMI, but the Cats will regroup. Patterson will enjoy the lack of Psycho-T inside and will score often. Can the Cat's guard handle the ball well enough to withstand Carolina's pressure? My guess is not enough to win, but just well enough to cover.

PICK: BIG BLEW +16.5



Davidson @ Oklahoma-4: I love college hoops. I really do. You get games like this once or twice in the first few months of football season. In hoops, you get them all November long. Davidson looks to build on the most spectacular tourney run since George Mason (more interesting because of the emergence of Steph Curry) by notching a big scalp in Oklahoma.

Take a look at the Wildcats early schedule this year: Oklahoma, Winthrop (always tough), West Virginia, NC St., Purdue (best team in Big 10 - write it down), and DUKE. Gotta love the aggressive scheduling and you can bet it will pay dividends come March.

But not tonight. Davidson has no answer for the strength, size and quickness of Blake Griffin, a Top-3 pick in next year's draft. Curry may go for 30, but I'd be surprised if Griffin doesn't nearly match him. And Blake has a little more help around him. Davidson is a good ballclub, and Steph Curry is absolutely dynamic. His 4-game tourney run last March was honestly transcendent. Everyone is a Steph Curry fan now...including Vegas. 4 points is not enough, Oklahoma is just a better team overall. (But I'm rooting for Davidson - like everyone else...)

PICK: Oklahoma-4

Yes We Kent!

Best line you didn't see:

Tyrone Kent (Toledo), 37 points, 39 minutes.

Xavier won the game comfortably, but MAC teams better know where Kent is on the floor, as he can fill it up, and definitely isn't afraid to put 'em up! (11-21 from the floor, 10-10 from the line).

Me oh My, V-M-I

Ouch.

For my first column of the season, I was just going to google some columns from last year's UK v. Garder-Webb game and cut and paste it. I am pretty sure that is what Billy G. did for his somber, yet not-nearly-somber-enough press conference.

The loss similar, the timing; the same. The ramifications? Much different.

This is year two of the Billy Gillespie era at Kentucky, a school that chronicles coaching eras the same way people chronicle presidential terms. For example, the Pitino era restored Kentucky basketball to glory, the Adolph Rupp era ushered in the now-assumed heir of excellence. The Tubby Smith era... hmmm, interesting... the Tubby Smith Era.

It's looking a little better in retrospect, isn't it Cats Fans? Sure, there are some some of you who will cast him as the Tyrone Willingham-esque cataslyst for the catclysm. However it is hard to argue with his overall tenure. I assure you the Golden Gopher fans are grateful for Tubby's "decision" to move on to the next stop.

Which brings us to the Billy Gilespie Era. The North Carolina loss is certainly impending, and the fans can allow you that. Consider the November 29th, and December 6th & 13th tilts against Kansas St, Miami and Indiana, respectivly to be fulcrum games. Win all three, and the likely losses to UNC and Lousiville are buried along with the opeing night VMI debacle. Lose all three and you will rue the day Acie Law signed with you A&M, coniving Cat Nation into seeing you as a candidat as viable as Jay Wright (my personal pick), Tom Crean, Sean Miller and a handful of other coaches ripe for the picking.

It is a program measured in coaching eras. The only question is how long wil this one last?

Looks just like Rupp, right boys?

Grading the Draft - Picks 1-5

First off - drafting is an inexact science. There are NO guarantees. And complicating matters, this is a draft of "potential" I think Vitale said that once or twice last night, didn't he??

When it comes to college basketball players, the only guarantees are Jay Bilas gushing about someone's "tremendous length" and Stephen A. Smith screaming about something, usually not factually or contextually relevant to the discussion. With that said, here are the Maniac's early draft grades.

Chicago Bulls - Derrick Rose #1
Grade: A

Tough to argue this pick. Hometown kid, solid decision maker at the point, great leadership abilities, goos strength and scoring ability, able defender. Good pick.

Best case scenario: Derron Williams meets Jason Kidd. A commanding floor presence with exceptional court vision, develops a better J to go with the slashing scoring ability. Rose leads the Bulls to the 2010 NBA Finals, earning MVP Award, assumes Jason Kidd's throne (and challenges Chris Paul) as the PG of Team USA for the next decade. Exposes Tony Parker and Chris Paul as "too small" to cover him. Becomes a perennial 1st Team All-NBA Player.

Worst case scenario: Derrick Fischer. A strong, physically tough, solid floor general; a great locker room presence and a solid contributor to good teams. A nice 10 year career, solid but not spectacular numbers.

Miami Heat - Michael Beasley #2
Grade: A+

The Heat, after some insane posturing select the most pro-ready collegian since Carmelo Anthony, an instant impact SF/PF who will average 20-10 for a long, long time.

Best case scenario: Dirk Nowitski meets Kobe Bryant. I know - odd blend. The size and shooting touch and ability to shoot over top of any defender quick enough to stay in front of him (ala Dirk), with the killer big-bucket instinct and competitiveness of the Mamba. Questions regarding "character" surfaced from the Heat camp (but OJ Mayo seemed fine??). Please, doubters - pop in a tape of the first Kansas game from 07-08. Spectacular. Best collegiate performance in a regular season game I have seen in a decade. Kansas could have put seven guys on the floor, and he STILL could have thrown in 30. Oh, and he led the NATION in rebounding. By the way, Kansas had four guys drafted last night and won the National Championship...

Beasley becomes an instant All-Star, and is a top-3 MVP guy for 6-8 years. The Heat get a healthy Dwyane Wade, and win the East in 2009. The Heat win a title in 2011, then trade a washed-up, disgruntled, injured, max-contract Shawn Marion back to the Phoenix Suns for two first-round draft picks, both eventual lottery picks, and Steve Kerr wanders the streets of Scottsdale, babbling vacantly about the 1998 Bulls...

Worst case scenario: Zach Randolf, Glenn Robinson - Decent numbers guy, never appears fully committed to dominating in the NBA. I do not think this is the case with Beasley.

Memphis Grizzlies (via Minnesota) - OJ Mayo #3
Grade: C+

I like this pick a lot more in Memphis's hands as opposed to Minnesota's. Mayo could flourish having an opportunity to dominate the ball and look to score. Converting him to a pure PG could have been a difficult task.

Best case scenario: Gilbert Arenas, Kevin Martin. OK, so I am not sold on Mayo. I can't shake the thought of watching three of four USC games this year and not instantly being able to tell which one was OJ. He blended in with the other guards on the floor for USC, just another good player. Stars POP off the screen. Watch the NCAA tourney game vs. Kansas St and tell me how there was ever a debate for the Heat...

Worst Case scenario: Ricky Davis, Stephon Marbury. Tons of talent. Tons of athleticism. Tons of issues... Tons of losing. Mayo peaks early (as a 14 year old on the cover of SLAM Magazine) and never quite fulfills the promise and hype. Three years down the road Mayo is left behind after the deal in which GM Chris Wallace ships the three best players to the Lakers in exchange for a sack of wrenches and a stack of Golden Girls DVD's. Local business chain develops product entitled simply, "OJ Mayo - The Condiment of Killers." Rampant lawsuits follow. Allegedly.

Oklahoma City SuperSellouts - Russell Westbrook #4
Grade: C

Ok, call me crazy. At any point, was this guy the best player on his team? Did he not sit the bench behind NBA-All Stars like Jordan Farmar and Aaron Afflalo for two years before emerging as a junior?? This year he was no better than the third best player on his own team (Love, Collison) Number 4?

Best case scenario: Rajon Rondo with a little more offensive spark. Solid, if not exceptional defender. Doesn't need the ball to have an impact (a nice fit for Durant). A real nice fit pick, just not sure if the value is there at #4

Worst case scenario: Dominates head-to-head matchup against former UCLA teammate Richard Mbah-Moute in 2011 NBA D-League Finals.


Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis) - Kevin Love #5
Grade: B-

McHale reportedly coveted Love from the beginning (the player, kevin love...). A few pundits tabbed him "this year's Adam Morrison." That is unfair (and also a discreet way of saying "slow sucky white guy"). A better analagy would be "this year's Sean May." And that isn't really a compliment, but at least it isn't patently racist.

Best case scenario: Carlos Boozer, Robert Horry.
Love develops a nice mid-range jump shot to offset some quickness liabilities. He learns to channel his intensty and focus, becomes an instant fan-favorite and a locker room "glue-guy." A good player, a key contributor, but never a star on
good teams. He evolves into a Sam Cassell, James Posey, Robert Horry, PJ Brown guy. And that ain't a bad career - just a little bit of a reach at #5.

Worst case scenario: Sean May, Marcus Fizer.
Good college player, nice fundamentals - just a little small and/or slow for the NBA. Love plays several years, then slips slowly out of the league. He is found ten years later, sinking two consecutive shots from the opposite foul-line during a halftime promotion in Flint, Michigan. Flint Tropics owner Jackie Moon scrambles to find the $20,000 owed to Love. While waiting for the check, Love begins earning extra money doing Beach Boy cover songs in Los Angeles beach bars.

The Bulls and the Beez

The latest projections from most draft experts have the Chicago Bulls leaning towards home-grown point guard Derrick Rose with the number one selection in the upcoming draft.

My question is: Are you serious?

I know Rose dazzled in the NCAA tourney leading his Memphis Tigers to a minute away from a national championship, while Beasley bowed out early with his two-man Kansas State team (Billy Walker can ball.)

Beasley is a no-doubt 20-10 guy tomorrow. At this stage in his career he is far more physically NBA-ready than Kevin Durant, and led the NATION in rebounding. I know, I know, there are "attitude" questions. My response: How many kids with terrible attitudes and the ability to drop 30 a night lead the nation in rebounding? The kid is a beast, the kind of player you can build around for the next 10 years, and the kind that can take the Bulls to the elite in the Eastern Conference NEXT YEAR.

Check out this stat line:
39 points, 11 rebounds, 31 minutes.

That was Beasley against National Champion Kansas and their NBA-ready front court. He similarly dominated Blake Griffiin and Oklahoma, dropped 19&13 versus Luke Harangody and Notre Dame. With double and triple teams all season, Beasley produced every night.

Many scouts have labeled his upside as "Amare Stoudamire meets Antawn Jamison." I wonder why no one has said "Amare meets Dirk." Perhaps it is the wierd unwritten rule of not comparing white dudes and black dudes when referencing players games... not sure. But there is a lot of Dirk Nowitski circa 2004-2005 ice-cold hand-in face knocking down 22-footers in his game.

Note to Bulls GM John Paxson. Pretend it is March 13th and you have the number one pick in the draft. It is a no-brainer. Michael Beasley. Don't let a few extra games under the sparkle of March Madness blind you.