Over the past ten or fifteen years there have been a few things relatively automatic when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. Someone seeded #13 or higher will capture the nation's fancy by delivering the miracle moment that has made the NCAA Tournament (along with gambling in office pools) the magical nation-captivating event it is. Two or three teams and coaches (see: Seth Greenberg, Jim Boeheim) will whine about the unjustness of their snub from the field. And Michigan State, Gonzaga and Butler will be somewhere in the Field of 64 (or 65).
The first two are still almost givens. The last? Difficult as it may be to process, is far from a given this season
Michigan State is reaching the time of the season when Coach Izzo traditionally begins circling the wagons and gear his Spartans up for their magical run at the Final Four. After last night's stunning home loss to Michigan, the Spartans are in real jeopardy of being excluded from the field all together. Their schedule has been as brutal as always; with four preconference losses to Connecticut, @Duke, @Syracuse and Texas. Not only are those not bad losses, it wouldn't be surprising if those four teams comprised the Final Four.
Sparty's recent losses to Penn State and Michigan are the cause for pause. The Spartans record is now just 12-8 and 4-4 in Big Ten play. They still have trips remaining to Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio State and Wisconsin and visits from Purdue and Ohio State. For arguements sake, let's say they beat all the teams they are supposed to, and fail to win more than one or two of the aforementioned tricky games. That would leave the Spartans at 17-13 or 18-12. If they were to lose the opener in the Big Ten tourney, their spot on the bubble would be quite a precarious one.
Gonzaga and Butler also have a hill to climb over the next four weeks if they plan on continuing their "major conference" reputations, despite playing in mid-major leagues.
Last night Mickey McConnell's buzzer beating runner gave St. Mary's their first win in Spokane in fifteen years. The loss dropped Gonzaga to just 13-8 and a surprising 3-3 in the WCC. St. Mary's now leads the Zags by three full games in the conference and all but ended Gonzaga''s decade-long stranglehold on the conference crown. The Zags should go no worse than 8-2 down the stretch which would have them at 21-10, and likely safe. However there is little room for another "bad loss" like the one they surrended to San Fransisco earlier this week. February 5th's visit from Memphis will be absolutely enormous for both teams in their fight to make the tourney.
It's a very similar situation for Butler. They got a little help when Valpo suffered a surprising loss to drop to 7-2, pulling Butler one game back in the loss column, behind Valpo and Cleveland State. Butler, like the Zags played a brutal non-conference schedule. They have quality losses to Xavier, Duke and Louisville. Those don't hurt too badly. However conferences losses to Wright State and being swept by middle of the pack Milwaukee shrinks the Bulldogs remaining margin for error.
My gut feel is that all three make the tourney, but it is going to be a very interesting, and nerve-racking final month of the season for all three.
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