One of the things that makes college hoops difficult to decipher for the casual fan is the relative meaninglessness of a team's overall record. With over 340 Division I opponents and literally thousands of lower tier teams to possibly schedule, some gaudy records are built on solid foundations and others are sandcastles nervously waiting for the high tide of conference play.
With that in mind, let's take a look at ten teams with gaudy win totals and see how long they can stand up.
5. Iowa State (11-2) -- I can't blame the Cyclones for scheduling they way they have. In a Big Twelve league with seven teams substantially better than them, hoping for even .500 in league play is a reach. The strategy then becomes: fatten up on a dozen or so near-nobodies, hope to eek out eight wins in conference and dangle nervously in front of the selection committee as a 20-win team from a power conference.
I don't think it is going to work out that way for the Cyclones, but you can't really fault them for trying. The only two wins of any quality are three point wins over Creighton and Iowa. Their two losses are not appalling; Northern Iowa and Cal, both competitive games.
It's hard to see Iowa State getting more than five or six wins in conference play, leaving even the NIT an optimistic destanation.
Verdict: FRAUD
4. Boston College (10-3) -- The Eagles are a tough squad to figure out. They get beat at home by Yale. Then they turn around and beat Texas A&M, Cal, Indiana, Providence and open conference play with a road win at Maryland. Just when you are ready to grant the Eagles their mulligan for the Yale game, they lose to A-10 middle-of-the packer Rhode Island.
Boston College has the talent to be a top four or five team in the ACC, usually enough to earn a spot on the dance card though this year the ACC appears to be as poor as it has been in a long time. I wouldn't bet my life on BC making it to the tourney, but despite several curious losses they have amassed the best resume in the conference outside of Duke. .500 or better in the ACC should land the Eagles safely in the tournament.
Verdict: REAL
3. Belmont (9-3) -- The Bruins gained a small measure of national recognition after taking the Blue Devils to the final minute in their opening round tournament game three years ago.
Today, their close but not quite ability still seems in tact. I wouldn't take Belmont straight up, but against a top tier opponent, I take them with the points. They're gonna cover.
Two of their three losses this season are to Tennessee, each in games that were close until the final minute. Their other loss is a respectable nine point defeat at Vanderbilt. They don't have anything resembling a quality win on their resume and Atlantic Sun play won't afford them the opportunity to earn one. They have little to no shot at an at-large bid, but are definetly a team to watch out for in a 2/15 or even a 3/14 opening rounder.
Verdict: REAL
2. Richmond (10-3) -- The Spiders at time look like not only a tourney team, but one that could play beyond the opening weekend. Other times they look like NIT fodder at best. Coach Chris Mooney in his sixth year at Richmond has not just won a few games, he has built a program that can compete in the A-10 year in and year out, as well as compete on a national scale as well.
The Spiders knew they needed to play a more challenging schedule in order to merit at-large worth, and they have done just that in 2010-2011. The results have been a little mixed. They snagged good resume wins over Seton Hall, VCU and a great win over Purdue. They also have some lesser but still good wins over Arizona State, Wright State and Wake Forest. The losses are a little bit scattered; no harm done in a seven point road loss at Old Dominion but the losses to Georgia tech and Iona sting a little bit.
It outs the committee in a tough spot if the Spiders fail to finish in the top three in league play.
Fortunately for Richmond they are going to get a few chances to add some quality resume wins once league play starts, though not as many as one would think at first glance due to the unbalanced A-10 schedule. They'll get only one chance against Xavier, Temple and Dayton. the three most likely challengers. The Temple and Dayton games are on the road, while Xavier and Rhode Island make the trip to Virginia.
As long as the Spiders can split the above four and avoid more than two or three "bad" losses, I see the Spiders making a return trip to the tourney.
Verdict: REAL
1. Cincinnati (13-0) -- Hard to believe, but the Bearcats haven;t made the tournament since Bob Huggins was dismissed five seasons ago. Andy Kennedy had them close in his lone season at the helm, and Mick Cronin has yet to even have the Bearcats close enough to feel any drama heading into Selection Sunday.
This year they have raced out to a perfect 13-0 season, though their schedule to this point has not just been sub par, it's been downright embarrassing. Their lone impressive win was a 68-34 demolition of Dayton (that's a really good win). Aside from that? Oklahoma (possibly one of the five worst Power 6 conference teams), Wright State and Miami (OH) and they haven't even squared off against a team in shouting range of the Top 100.
Life in the Big East won't be so easy. The Bearcats have all the hallmarks of a perplexing selection day struggle. 8-10 in Big East play would get them to 21 wins. That makes this year's Crosstown Shootout with rival Xavier even more anticipated.
The question is, can the Bearcats notch eight, nine or even ten wins inside the top heavy Big East? Try this on for size, they could get six simply by beating DePaul twice, Rutgers, South Florida and Seton Hall all at home and by winning at Providence. That leaves them twelve opportunities to pick up two or three quality wins, including a home and home with St. John's.
The biggest misconception about the Big East is that it is a "deep" league. Yes, they have a ton of elite teams every year, but there are a whopping SIXTEEN teams in the league. The dregs of the BEast are every bit as bad as any other major conference, only with the huge number of teams everyone gets a few extra have-nots to fatten up on.
My gut feel - the Bearcats get into the tourney over perhaps a more deserving team like a Wichita State or a UAB.
Verdict: FRAUD
Tune in tomorrow as we explore five more teams, including a few big names out West!
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