Hidden Gem of the Day: Missouri Hosting Old Dominion

To the best of my knowledge, tonight's ODU @  Mizzou game isn't going to be televised, but I am really intrigued to see how this one unfolds.  Old Dominion is a good ball club, one I expect to make the tourney, however I think Mizzou is a disastrous matchup for teams without sparkling point guard play and either 1. athleticism to keep up with the breakneck Tigers, or 2) Incredible discipline to slow down and squeeze the life out of the game.

ODU's best shot is #2, however I don't think it's going to be enough.  Missouri is the best team in the country no one is talking about, with their only blemish an overtime defeat to Georgetown.  If for no reason other than the pace they play they create interesting matchups and contrasting styles.  This year's ODU team is very similar to last year's squad that knocked off Notre Dame in Round One, and much more built to slug it out with the more rugged BEast schools than the uber-quick uptempo squads.

MANIACS PICK:  Missouri -8.5

Where's My Time Machine?!?

Um... not my arm.  I promise.

If only Marty McFly was here, we could have had a dandy today at 5PM in the VCU Holiday Tournament.

Cornell captured the nation's fancy last year, showing brains and ballin' were necessarily mutually exclusive, rolling all the way to the Sweet Sixteen before falling to the uber-athletic psudeo-pro team, Kentucky.

Wofford gave the Badgers everything they could handle in the opening round, nearly pulling off one of the tourney's biggest upsets.

So today should be a dandy right?

Um, not quite.  Wofford enters the game at 5-7.  And as the prohibitive favorite.  Ouch.

Cornell, at 2-9 is in full-on rebuilding mode, a distant cry from last year's stand out squad.  Coach Dunphy, Adam Foote and crew have moved on to greener pastures and the cupboard is pretty barren behind them.

As rare as it is for me to say this, you might want to skip this game...

Virginia Tech Still Listless in Win Over SC Upstate

It's been a long season already for Seth...

Someone wake up the Hokies before this season gets completely away from them. 

Expectations were at a nearly unprecedented high for Virginia Tech heading into the 2010-2011 season.  To say it's been a disappointing start would be a bit of an understatement.  The beefed up schedule has backfired, with nearly every "big game" turning into "disappointing loss."

They won today, but it's hard to take away much positive from the relative struggle they got from one of the lowest rated teams in all of Division I basketball, South Carolina-Upstate (2-10).

The ACC is wide open for second place, and the Hokies have to be considered among the contenders but they are going to have to get a much better effort than they got today in Blacksburg.

FiveTen-Win Teams: Real or Fraud?

One of the things that makes college hoops difficult to decipher for the casual fan is the relative meaninglessness of a team's overall record.  With over 340 Division I opponents and literally thousands of lower tier teams to possibly schedule, some gaudy records are built on solid foundations and others are sandcastles nervously waiting for the high tide of conference play.

With that in mind, let's take a look at ten teams with gaudy win totals and see how long they can stand up.


5.  Iowa State (11-2) -- I can't blame the Cyclones for scheduling they way they have.  In a Big Twelve league with seven teams substantially better than them, hoping for even .500 in league play is a reach.  The strategy then becomes: fatten up on a dozen or so near-nobodies, hope to eek out eight wins in conference and dangle nervously in front of the selection committee as a 20-win team from a power conference.

I don't think it is going to work out that way for the Cyclones, but you can't really fault them for trying.  The only two wins of any quality are three point wins over Creighton and Iowa.  Their two losses are not appalling; Northern Iowa and Cal, both competitive games.

It's hard to see Iowa State getting more than five or six wins in conference play, leaving even the NIT an optimistic destanation.

Verdict:  FRAUD

4.  Boston College (10-3) -- The Eagles are a tough squad to figure out.  They get beat at home by Yale.  Then they turn around and beat Texas A&M, Cal, Indiana, Providence and open conference play with a road win at Maryland.  Just when you are ready to grant the Eagles their mulligan for the Yale game, they lose to A-10 middle-of-the packer Rhode Island.

Boston College has the talent to be a top four or five team in the ACC, usually enough to earn a spot on the dance card though this year the ACC appears to be as poor as it has been in a long time.  I wouldn't bet my life on BC making it to the tourney, but despite several curious losses they have amassed the best resume in the conference outside of Duke.  .500 or better in the ACC should land the Eagles safely in the tournament.

Verdict:  REAL


3.  Belmont (9-3) -- The Bruins gained a small measure of national recognition after taking the Blue Devils to the final minute in their opening round tournament game three years ago.

Today, their close but not quite ability still seems in tact.  I wouldn't take Belmont straight up, but against a top tier opponent, I take them with the points.  They're gonna cover.

Two of their three losses this season are to Tennessee, each in games that were close until the final minute.  Their other loss is a respectable nine point defeat at Vanderbilt.  They don't have anything resembling a quality win on their resume and Atlantic Sun play won't afford them the opportunity to earn one.  They have little to no shot at an at-large bid, but are definetly a team to watch out for in a 2/15 or even a 3/14 opening rounder.

Verdict:  REAL

2.  Richmond (10-3) -- The Spiders at time look like not only a tourney team, but one that could play beyond the opening weekend.  Other times they look like NIT fodder at best.  Coach Chris Mooney in his sixth year at Richmond has not just won a few games, he has built a program that can compete in the A-10 year in and year out, as well as compete on a national scale as well.

The Spiders knew they needed to play a more challenging schedule in order to merit at-large worth, and they have done just that in 2010-2011.  The results have been a little mixed.  They snagged good resume wins over Seton Hall, VCU and a great win over Purdue.  They also have some lesser but still good wins over Arizona State, Wright State and Wake Forest.  The losses are a little bit scattered; no harm done in a seven point road loss at Old Dominion but the losses to Georgia tech and Iona sting a little bit.

It outs the committee in a tough spot if the Spiders fail to finish in the top three in league play.

Fortunately for Richmond they are going to get a few chances to add some quality resume wins once league play starts, though not as many as one would think at first glance due to the unbalanced A-10 schedule.  They'll get only one chance against Xavier, Temple and Dayton. the three most likely challengers.  The Temple and Dayton games are on the road, while Xavier and Rhode Island make the trip to Virginia.

As long as the Spiders can split the above four and avoid more than two or three "bad" losses, I see the Spiders making a return trip to the tourney.

Verdict:  REAL

1.  Cincinnati (13-0) -- Hard to believe, but the Bearcats haven;t made the tournament since Bob Huggins was dismissed five seasons ago.  Andy Kennedy had them close in his lone season at the helm, and Mick Cronin has yet to even have the Bearcats close enough to feel any drama heading into Selection Sunday.

This year they have raced out to a perfect 13-0 season, though their schedule to this point has not just been sub par, it's been downright embarrassing.  Their lone impressive win was a 68-34 demolition of Dayton (that's a really good win).  Aside from that?  Oklahoma (possibly one of the five worst Power 6 conference teams), Wright State and Miami (OH) and they haven't even squared off against a team in shouting range of the Top 100.

Life in the Big East won't be so easy.  The Bearcats have all the hallmarks of a perplexing selection day struggle.  8-10 in Big East play would get them to 21 wins.  That makes this year's Crosstown Shootout with rival Xavier even more anticipated.

The question is, can the Bearcats notch eight, nine or even ten wins inside the top heavy Big East?  Try this on for size, they could get six simply by beating DePaul twice, Rutgers, South Florida and Seton Hall all at home and by winning at Providence.  That leaves them twelve opportunities to pick up two or three quality wins, including a home and home with St. John's.

The biggest misconception about the Big East is that it is a "deep" league.  Yes, they have a ton of elite teams every year, but there are a whopping SIXTEEN teams in the league.  The dregs of the BEast are every bit as bad as any other major conference, only with the huge number of teams everyone gets a few extra have-nots to fatten up on.

My gut feel - the Bearcats get into the tourney over perhaps a more deserving team like a Wichita State or a UAB.

Verdict:  FRAUD

Tune in tomorrow as we explore five more teams, including a few big names out West!
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St. Mary's Helps Mississippi State's Self-Implosion Continue

They might have some fight on the bench, but apparantly that fighting spirit doesn't translate to the court.

St. Mary's took advantage of a sloppy and listless Bulldog squad from the opening tap, sending Mississippi State to their fourth loss in five games.  At 8-6 with losses to East Tennessee State and FAU on the resume, nothing short of a miracle is getting the Bulldogs to post-season play.  Last year they were one of the only teams with a legitimate complaint being left out of the field of 65.  This year?  Even the NIT is feeling a little ambitious.

St. Mary's stellar backcourt led the way as Matthew Dellavedova and Mickey McConnell combined to make eleven three point buckets, tallying 24 and 28 points respectively.  The Gaels, which have featured eleven players from Australia in the past five seasons, play with an international style that makes them difficult to defend.  They run a ton of pick and pops with nearly every player they suit up capable of hurting teams from behind the arc.  They used that deadly marksman ship to jump out to a 51-34 halftime lead and comfortably cruised to the 94-72 win.

Up next for the Gaels is a New Year's Eve should-win against Hartford before entering WCC play as no worse than co-favorite with perennial champ Gonzaga.

Down in the Valley - Top Teams Assert Their Dominance in the MVC

After streaking into national relevance in the mid 2000's, the Missouri Valley has slipped a bit, enduring a few down seasons in a row.  The biggest culprit?  Parity.  It wasn't that their top teams weren't good (as evidenced by Northern Iowa's magical slaying of #1 Kansas in last years tourney), it was that their middle of the pack wasn't bad.  The result?  A lot of teams between eight and eleven wins in league play and none of the separation needed for a mid major conference to earn multiple bids in March.

If the opening week of conference play is any indication, the Valley could once again be sending two, maybe three teams to the Big Dance as three of their top teams captured important wins.

The thriller of the night was the 58-57 that saw Missouri State stealing an important win at Northern Iowa on the strength of Kyle Weems game winning three-pointer at the buzzer.  Very few teams win on the Panthers home floor.  Grabbing the road win early bodes well for the Bears.  The win moved Missouri State to 9-3 and gave them their first real resume win.  All three of their losses are quality; Oklahoma State, Tulsa and Tennessee, but without a marquee win out of conference the Bears likely need to be 14-4 or better in Valley play to get in the at large discussion.

Northern Iowa on the other hand is in a more unique position.  Their is undoubtably some unintentional lingering name value after last year's surprising Sweet Sixteen run.  It isn't supposed to matter, but a positive perception regarding a program never hurts.  Their resume is very similar to Mo State's, with a worse loss (51-39 to Iowa) and two better wins (Indiana and New Mexico).  The Panthers also likely need to get to that 13-14 win range to have much of a chance of entertaining tourney aspirations.

Two other Valley contests were far less enthralling, but equally important opening statements.  Conference favorite Wichita State traveled to Evansville, who owns a win over Butler, and simply steamrolled the Purple Aces.  The Shockers cruised to the 91-57 win with all five starters scoring in double figures.  The win moves Wichita State to 10-2 with wins over Tulsa, Virginia and LSU and quality losses to a pair of top 10 squads, UConn on a neutral floor and a narrow loss at San Diego State.  The Shockers are the most legitimate at-large contender in the MVC, but if they play like they did tonight winning the auto bid in the conference tourney might make the point moot.  13 or 14 conference wins would seem to put the Shockers on solid ground.

The final big game saw another league favorite grab an important road win, with Creighton defeating Illinois State 67-54.  The Bluejays had some early season struggles, losing in all four attempts to earn a quality win.  The Northwestern and BYU losses do no real harm.  The losses to Nebraska and Iowa State make it tough to argue for Creighton over some middle of the pack Big 12 team as they lost to several of the worst teams in the league.  If the committee sees them on the board next to, say Oklahoma State or Texas A&M it's going to be hard to see the scales tipping in Creighton's favor.  Just like Mo State and Northern Iowa, the Jays are going to have to separate themselves from the MVC pack to merit any consideration.  In order to do that, you have to beat quality opponents on the road.  Tonight's comfortable win in Normal is a good start.

It is going to be an exciting year once again in the Valley, and with a little separation at the top could once again be sending multiple teams in March.

A-Plus Night for the A-10

Tonight was a big night for bolstering the national profile of the Atlantic 10.  Last season they flirted with sending as many as six teams to the Dance, before eventually settling for three, with three more in the NIT.  This season looked to be a down year, with Temple, Xavier and Richmond all taking a disappointing early loss or two.

The Atlantic 10 collectively came up big tonight.  First, Dayton took down CAA standout George Mason 73-67.  After some early struggles Dayton is looking more and more like an NCAA Tournament team.

Richmond pummeled Wake Forest on the road 90-74.  Wake is undeniably down this year, and will likely finsh with a sub .500 record, however aany blowout road win against an ACC school is good for the overall profile.

Lastly, and perhaps most impressivly, Rhode Island knocked off Boston College 67-65.  The Eagles got some pub for their early season loss to lowly Yale.  Since that upset they had regrouped and and won seven straight, including wins over Cal, Indiana, UMass, Providence and Maryland.  This is a great win for the Rams who played Pitt tough in the season opener, and had looked uneven since.

The win moves the Rams to 9-4 and puts another team in the at-large conversation for the league.  Likely no more than three will dance, but with Temple, Xavier, Dayton, Richmond and Rhode Island the A-10 is again relevant on the national stage.

Notre Dame Shows Hot Start is Legit, Downs Georgetown by 14

I'll admit to being among the long list of skeptics regarding Notre Dame.  They had a great start and captured some quality wins, but surely once conference play started their lack of atheticism, lack of a true interior scorer and lack of explosiveness from the wing would catch up them, right?

Tonight they laid a lot of lingering doubts to rest, completely handling a Georgetown team with one of the most dynamic and athletic backcourts in the country.  The Irish used a smothering defense to harass Georgetown into tough shots, holding the usually efficient Hoyas to just 42% shooting.

Meanwhile on offense, the Irish got a balanced the balanced attack that was so often lacking during the Luke Harangody era.  Tim Abromitis threw his name into the ring for Big East POY tossing in twenty points, while Hansbrough and Nash added 15 and 17 respectively.

Up next for the Irish are two more stern tests; a New Year's Day trip to the Carrier Dome and then back home to host UConn on Tuesday.  Win both, and it would be hard to have the Irish outside of the Top 5. 

Georgetown should rebound easily Saturday hosting DePaul before a trip to ever-improving St. John's on Tuesday. 

 

Wednesday Gems in Mid-Major Land

Last night's Pitt v. UConn game ushered in the onset of conference play with a bang.  The game may have been slightly overlooked thanks to the odd Tuesday Night Football game, but college hoops fans had to be delighted with a great matchup to jumpstart phase two of the college sesason.  Non-conference play is almost over, but tonight serves up a nice handful a final conference comparison games.

There are a few more nice major conference match-ups tonight (West Virginia v. St Johns, Georgetown v. Notre Dame), but the most interesting games are taking place far from the reach of nationally televised contests.  Here's a quick breakdown of some games worth visiting www.channelsurfing.net for (great links to dozens of hard-to-find games)


7:00 PM -- Furman (8-2) @ UCF (11-0)
UCF has been one of the nation's most pleasnat surprises, riding their undefeated start to #19 in the AP polls.  Tonight they get a tricky potential trap game as the Paladins (nominee for oddest nickname - ANYONE know what a "Paladin" is?  Email it our way) head to UCF Arena in the first game of the UCF Holiday Classic.  Furman's two losses, a 4-point loss to Kent State (who is playing good ball and could win the MAC) and a 24 point drubbing to Penn State.

The Nittany Lions still have Talor Battle (I believe he is in his eleventh year of eligibility...) and beat Indiana last night in Bloomington to kick off Big Ten play.  The point being, the loss may not be that bad.  Furman enters fresh off a double digit win over South Carolina.  The Knights better be sharp tonight or they could be susceptible to an upset.


7:00 PM -- George Mason (9-2) @ Dayton (10-3)
I have both of these teams IN in my earliest prediction bracket for the Big Dance, but both have a lot of work to do to get there.  Dayton had some struggles early dropping a tough game to East Tennessee St and enduring a humiliating 68-34 loss to state rival Cincinnati.  Since then, the Flyers have regrouped, winning three in a row including last night's 69-65 win at Seton Hall.  The Flyers are the most athletic team in the Atlantic 10 and have the talent to unseat Temple, Xavier and Richmond as the A-10's top team.

George Mason fields their best team since their legendary Final Four run in 2006.   Their two losses both came outside the continental USA in November, NC State and a final-possession loss to SoCon favorite Wofford.  Since then the Patriots wins have been solid, if not spectacular.  Tonight marks their first true Top 75 team challenge since Cancun.  This is their last chance to pick up a much-needed resume win before entering league play in the brutal Colonial.  As of now, they'd be a bubble team at best.

This is the best game of the night, in my opinion.  Too bad ESPN chose to give us Duke v. UNC Greensboro and Texas-Arlington v. Kansas instead...


7:00 PM -- Wofford (5-6) @ VCU (7-4)
Wofford is easily the best 5-6 team in the country.  All kidding aside, the Terriers schedule has been among the most brutal in the country with losses to Minnesota, Clemson, Air Force, Georgetown, Xavier (3 OT) and South Carolina.  More important to note, none of those teams travelled to Wofford's gym.  They may have little shot at an at-large bid, but without a doubt their schedule prepared them well to run through the SoCon.  A win tonight would give them wins over two of the CAA's top teams (G.Mason), and could be the difference between a #14/#15 seed and a more winnable 4/13 game.

VCU on the other hand faces a much more difficult conference slate and has slipped outside of strong at-large contender range.  A loss tonight would be a brutal blow to any at-large hopes the Rams might be harboring.  Their win over UCLA was decent, but there is little else to write home about.  They have the most athletic team in the CAA and could be a dangerous #11/#12 seed come March if they can right the ship, starting with tonight.

9:05 PM -- Hawaii (9-3)  @ Utah State (11-2)
WAC play gets off to a blazing start tonight as the two top teams face off in Orem.   Hawaii played surprisingly well in the Honolulu Christmas tournament, knocking off Utah and Mississippi State to claim the consolation bracket.  The losses to Florida State and BYU were disspointing in margin, but not "bad losses" per se.  The loss to Cal Poly would be a crippler if they find themselves in the 22-23 win range and contending for an at-large birth.

Utah State finds themselves in an all-too-familiar position; great record with little in terms of quality wins.  Their losses, by 6 to BYU and at Georgetown won't hurt their profile.  Beating Hawaii not only gives them a Top 100 win, it also gets them the early leg up in the WAC standings.

9:35 PM -- Air Force (8-3) @ UTEP (10-3)
Air Force is a middle of the pack team in their league, but given the sterling performance of the MWC thus far this season, being a middle-of-the packer is actually a compliment.  One could say nearly the identical thing about UTEP.  It's unlikely either of these teams make the NCAA Tournament, but both are solid NIT contenders.  Tonight's game gives a nice comparison opportunity for the Mountain West and Conference USA.
 
11:00 PM -- St.Mary's (10-2) vs. Mississippi State (8-5): Game played in Las Vegas.
St Mary's is two years removed from Patty Mills and one year past Omar Samhan.  Despite losing two of the best players in school history, St. Mary's is right in the mix to return to the NCAA Tourney for the second straight year and appear to be poised to snap Gonzaga's decade long stanglehold on the WCC's regular season championship.  St. Mary's defeated St John's early in the year, and their only two losses are to BYU and San Diego State, both Top 25 teams.  They are in need of a Big 6 conference win to add to their otherwise bleak resume or could find themselves in the same situation as 2009; great record offset by a weak schedule resulting in a disappointing trip to the NIT.

God only knows what is going on at Mississippi State.  Eligibility suspensions, fist fights on the bench and a fistful of questionable losses including Florida Atlantic and East Tennessee.  At 8-5 the Bulldogs have likely played themselves into a deep hole to earn at at-large bid, though in a weak SEC-West they could pick up 10 or 11 wins.  A win tonight, a decent conference run and all of a sudden you are looking at a 20 or 21 win team in a Power Six conference, generally a recipe for dancing...

Maniac's Picks:  
Furman +13
Dayton -1.5
VCU -6.5
Hawaii +20.5
Air Force +14

10 Under the Tree - The Early Season's Most Interesting Storylines are the Perfect Christmas Gift

Each year as the calendar reaches Christmas and lunges forward toward the new year, the national landscape has inevitably shifted dramatically from what all the "geniuses" and "experts" had just mere months ago believed to be true.  There are always a few pleasant surprises and a few disappointments, and with respect to Denny Green, some teams "are who we thought they were."

Take Duke for example.  The Devils entered the season at #1 and have done nothing to even remotely dissuade the pollsters.  Even with the uncertainty surrounding freshman point guard sensation Kyrie Irving's toe it is hard to compile any form of rankings that doesn't have the Blue Devils atop the list.  Their schedule may not have been the most difficult, but with wins over Michigan State, Kansas State, Butler and Marquette it's hard to argue they haven't been tested.  Even Duke's gimme games are against better opponents than some of the Big 12 and BEast giants have fattened up on.

For the most part, the power conferences expected to be strong have not disappointed.  The Big Ten, Big 12 and Big East comprise more than 60% of this week's Top 25, and each have several additional teams sitting right on the cusp of the Top 25.

In fact, after Butler's celebrated "rise of the little guys "run last March, this season is as devoid of any non-BCS conference contenders as any in recent memory.  Butler, Xavier and Gonzaga, three of the most reliable mid-majors, have all struggled and are considerably off their recent top form.  Memphis, who despite never being lumped in with the other "mid-majors" is coming off a season where they missed the tourney for the first time in nearly a decade.   If this season's struggles continue, they might soon find themselves lumped in with the other have-nots in terms of public perception, relegated to "Mid Major Top 10's" and other such previously "beneath them" relegations.  Second tier mid-major darlings like Siena, Creighton, Virginia Commonwealth, Winthrop, and Davidson all seem devoid of the magic that lingered over the past few seasons.   Sadly, the national landscape is significantly lacking in mid-major excitement.

For better or worse, let's take a look at March Maniac's 10 Most Intriguing Story lines of the young season:

10.  UCF Cracks Top 25 - Watching Marcus Jordan and the Knights vanquish instate foes Florida, Miami and South Florida it is hard to imagine how the coaches had them tabbed 10th in the preseason C-USA poll.  Yes, Conference USA is deeper and much improved, with Southern Miss, Memphis, UAB and UTEP all solid.  It is still evident the coaches really fanned on this one.  With four quality wins under their belts already, it isn't out of the realm of possibility the Knights could qualify as an at-large selection if need be come March.

9.  The SEC Worst...er "West" - Thank goodness for the East or else the SEC would have a difficult time contending they are even among the top 10 conferences in the country.  Ole Miss and Mississippi State could be decent, the same goes for Arkansas...however the fact remains that these six collectively already boast losses North Texas, Nicholls State, Coastal Carolina, Samford, UNC Ashville, Campbell, Presbyterian, Florida Atlantic, St. Peters's and East Tennessee State.  Auburn and Alabama have been abysmal, LSU has stunk even with their typical lousy schedule.  Ditto for Arkansas.  It's looking like a long wait until football season for a lot of fans in SEC country.

8.  The Toe You Know - Two months ago, Kyrie Irving was relatively unknown outside of die-hard college hoop fans.  After exploding on the scene against Kansas State and Michigan State, thoroughly outplaying All-Americans Jacob Pullen and Kalin Lucas in the process, Kyrie was edging himself into national POY status - despite sharing the Duke spotlight with established stars like Kyle Singler and Nolan Smith.

Now, the prospects of Duke making a run at perfection seems to hinge largely on the "will he, won't he" return status around his nebulous injured toe. 

Regardless of how it shakes out, here's hoping we get to see Kyrie one more year in Durham playing alongside Austin Rivers and all three Plumlee boys...

7.  The BEast Still Roars - There was some speculation that this might be a down year for the Big East, or at least a year when the Big Ten and Big 12 can borrow a little of the shine.   As Big Ten alumnus Lee Corso likes to say, "not so fast my friend!"

Of the seven remaining undefeated teams in the nation, three reside in the BEast.  What makes that even more impressive is that these three do NOT include Pitt, Georgetown or Villanova, all who possess the talent to land in the Final Four.  UConn and Syracuse have dazzled this year, not only winning every game but beating quality opponents convincingly.  Cincinnati is one of the nation's surprises at 12-0.  The Bearcats take some knocks for the light schedule, but I became a believer after watching them double up a quality Dayton club 68-34.

Add in Louisville, West Virginia, Marquette and Notre Dame who have all played fantastic and you are once again looking at a league with nine or ten elite ballclubs.

Aside from St. John's and seemingly permanently sluggish DePaul, it's hard to label any team in the BEast a disappointment thus far in 2010.

6.  Freshman Leading the Way - Take a look at the top of the polls and you'll find a number of elite teams  being led by some simply stunning freshman.  Jared Sullinger has Ohio State looking like the team most capable of taking down the Dukies.  If I had a ballot (still waiting for mine...hmmm), Sullinger is my vote for National POY.  Duke's Kyrie Irving has been flawless (get well soon Kyrie), and Kentucky has an entirely new cast of characters, but is achieving the same fantastic results, powered largely by three freshman including standout PF Terrance Jones.

Don't be surprised if the year ends with at least two freshman on the All-American team

5.  Carolina Blues - Last year's fiasco was supposed to be a quick blip on the radar, a one season anomaly to be erased completely this Fall with the arrival of freshman phenom Harrison Barnes.  To this point, Barnes has struggled mightily and the Tarheels are plagued by the same problems as a year ago; terrible play from the point and the lack of consistent offensive production from their wings.  Carolina salvaged what could have been a disastrous preconference season with the win over Kentucky, but at 8-4 and their second-best win a squeaker over Charleston at home they need to go at least 10-8 in ACC play to get a tourney invite.  Someone send Roy a box of Kleenex for Christmas... he might really need 'em.

4.  Speaking of the ACC...and Who Would Want To? - The WCC has long been known as "Gonzaga and the Other Guys."  This year, the ACC might more aptly fit the bill, substitute "Duke" for Gonzaga.  Virginia Tech was allegedly the second best team in the conference.  They raised their level of schedule this year, in response to being narrowly omitted from the past two NCAA tournaments.  Schedule strength only helps if you win a few of the games.  At 7-4, the Hokies find themselves in all-too-familiar territory; needing to win in conference to avoid popping once again on the dreaded bubble.

3.  Kings of the Mountain - Move over Pac-10, the Mountain West is clearly the class of the West this year.  San Diego State has risen all the way to #7 in the polls and the ranking isn't a fluke.  Kawhi Leonard and company are big, quick and deep enough to make a serious run at the Final Four. 

BYU returns senior scoring machine Jimmer Fredette, and UNLV has navigated an extremely challenging preconference schedule pretty well with wins over VA Tech, Kansas State and Wisconsin, and a quality loss to Louisville on the road.  The one point loss to UCSB is a head scratcher, but as we like to remind folks on March Maniacs, nearly every teams will use their mulligan somewhere along the way. 

Even New Mexico, Utah and Air Force put decent squads on the floor making the MWC not only the best conference out west, but arguably the fourth best conference in the country this season.  (Behind only Big 12, Big Ten and the BEast).

2.  The Benefits and the Doubt - Improper benefits have been the buzzword this season in college hoops.  Let's hope there aren't many more to deal with before tourney time, but it seems inevitable one or two more issues will crop up.  Enis Kanter was denied eligibility by the NCAA, and unless a surprising reversal occurs in the next week, Kentucky will never get the 7-foot Turkish big man into Wildcat blue.  Josh Selby's much anticipated debut had to wait until last week before the Kansas PG was cleared to play after serving his
suspension for accepting improper benefits (to the tune of less than $1,000 in travel allowance). 

Tennessee finds themselves in the most unique predicament, as Bruce Pearl has been suspended by the SEC (not the NCAA) for the first eight games of conference play.  Due to a scheduling anomaly, Pearl WILL coach the UConn game that falls in the midst of the first eight conference games.  For everyone's sake, let's hope the talk from here on out focuses more ON the court and a whole lot less on what is happening off it.

1.  Can Duke Run the Table and Repeat as National Champs?

Before Kyrie Irving injured his toe, I would have contended not only do they have a shot, I think they will in fact run the table.  I wrote as much in a column immediately after the Kansas State game.  Not only is Duke a very complete a ballclub this year, the ACC is truly lousy and devoid of a worthy rival.

After the injury?  I'm still not backing off.  Duke can run the table and be the first undefeated National Champ since Bobby Knight's Hoosiers 35 years ago.  With Nolan Smith, Andre Dawkins and Seth Curry the Blue Devils still have plenty of ball handling and perimeter offense.  Placing Kyle Singler at the four essentially gives them a fourth point guard to help handle any pressure and create good looks at the basket.

I love this team and how it is constructed.  The most interesting thing about Duke?  They won the title last year.  This year's team is better.  Next year?  The team will be EVEN BETTER than this squad with the arrival of Austin Rivers and the third Plumlee brother (a 7-footer to boot!)

Duke has several landmines they'll need to avoid; Carolina on the road is an electric environment and a rivalry game where you can throw out the team's records and know a battle is coming.  Likewise trips to Florida State have historically given Coach K fits.  I don't see any game for the rest of the regular season in which the Devils won't be considerable favorites heading into the game.  Perfection is within their grasp, even if Kyrie doesn't return.

Texas Freshman Hitting Stride

Jared Sullinger gets the headlines.  Kyrie Irving and his toe dominate the conversation.  The trio of Terrance Jones, Brandin Knight and Doron Lamb have fans in Lexington talking Final Four.  Somewhere amidst all the freshman chaos Texas's duo of Corey Joseph and Tristan Thompson usually get overlooked.
A notice to the Big Twelve; ignore the Longhorns at your own peril. 

No team in the country disapointed more last season than the Texas Longhorns.  Ranked #1 in the country just after Christmas, Rick Barnes's club impolded down the stretch, scraping to even make the tournament before bowing out ungracefully in a first round stinker to Wake Forest.  Perhaps last season's meltdown was the perfect primer to a successful 2010-2011.

Expectations were significantly lower this year in Austin, a scenario that suited Rick Barnes just fine.  With expectations and the pressure dialed well down this season the Longhorns are begininng to blossom into a team to be reckoned with come March.

Granted, Texas suffered the rather inexplicable blowout loss to USC several weeks ago, but every team gets a mulligan over the course of the season.  Removing that blemish from the record and you are left with one of the more impressive pre-conference performances in the country.  It began with an impressive victory over Illinois in one of the season's best played contests to date.  The following night, the true definition of "quality loss" as they fell on a last second bucket to Pitt in front of an electrified Madison Square Garden. 

This past week the Longhorns really hit their stride, posting back-to-back road wins at North Carolina and Michigan State.  Adding Illinois and looking ahead to a Jan 8th matchup with UConn, Texas will have a real opportunity to build the kind of profile that merits a Top 4 seed come March.

A big reason for Texas's success has been the play of Thompson and Joseph.  Averaging just over 11 points each doesn't explode off the page, but their contributions in all facets of the game have been the perfect compliment to the emergence of Jordan Hamilton as a legit National POY candidate.

The Big 12 is loaded this year.  Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Missouri have shown themselves to all legitimate Final Four contenders.  After this week's performances it's time to add Texas to that list.

Memphis Finally Exposed in Blowout Loss to Georgetown

A loss to the Georgetown Hoyas is nothing to be ashamed of.  We've had them as high as #4 in Bracketeering and fully expect them to challenge for the championship in the once-again loaded BEast.

However last night's 17-point blowout loss will finally force a spotlight on the Memphis Tigers and reveal something most college hoops experts have known for weeks.  Memphis isn't very good.  Not only are they nowhere close to the 13th best team in the country as AP and Coaches polls suggest, they may not even be the smart favorite to win an improving Conference USA.

The Tigers entered with a strong record at 9-1, but dig a little deeper and one quickly finds very little substance in terms of opponents and several reasons to be very alarmed in regard to how narrowly they escaped against some poor competition.

The Tigers' best win was an early four point home win over Miami (FL).  Their lone loss was a double digit loss to Kansas, who when it is all said and done could wind up winning Bill Self his second ring in four years.  The Jayhawks are certainly on the short list (with Ohio State and possibly Syracuse and Pitt) of teams that could give Duke a run.  Nothing alarming about a loss at KU.

The rest of the "wins" are wins in title only.  The eye test reveals losing efforts by an overrated team.  The Tigers required overtime to beat lowly Arkansas State (4-8) and needed an extra frame to down Austin Peay (8-6) at home.  Several nights ago they needed a late rally to defeat Texas A&M Corpus Christi.  The record might have read 9-1 but anyone actually watching the games couldn't possibly think they were seeing one of the Top 20 teams in the country.

Last night Georgetown finally put a score to match what had long been evident.  The Hoyas, behind All American candidate Austin Freeman's 24 points, jumped out to an early lead and never relented.  The final score, 86-69 was even a little closer than the actual game.  Georgetown dominated from opening tip to the final horn.

Memphis still has a game with rival Tennessee before diving headlong into conference play.  Southern Miss, UCF and UAB are all off to solid starts and could be legitimate obstacles to the league crown.  After missing the tournment last year, a second straight ommison would be nearly unthinkable for the Tiger faithful and could make second-year coach Josh Pastner's seat pretty warm. 

My personal opinion is that the program is in great hands with Pastner, who is doing a good job of rebuilding after the carnage of Hurricane Calipari blew out of town, taking the nation's top recruiting class with him.  However this season might still be a rebuiding one rather than the "rebuilt" program that some of the early rankings might have lured fans into believeing. 

Washington State and Butler Look Strong in Advancing

Perhaps reports of the Bulldogs demise were a bit premature.  After looking lost early in the season without departed star Gordon Hayward, Butler appears to finally be hitting their stride.

Butler cruised to the finals in the Diamondhead Classic in Honolulu after dispatching Florida State last night 67-64.  The game wasn't as close as the score as Butler held a double digit lead for most of the second half.  Butler was led by some familiar faces as Shelvin Mack scored 17 and Matt Howard added 19.

Butler's opponent in the final might be surprising to some (but not us at MarchManiacs.com, not to toot our prognosticating horn but HONK HONK).  Washington State and Klay Thompson defeated #15 Baylor, despite 29 points by LaceDarius Dunn.

Washington State appears poised to enter the Top 25 for the first time under coach Ken Bone, regardless of Christmas Day's outcome.  Wazzou sits at 10-1, with quality wins over Baylor, Mississippi State and Gonzaga; the last two in absolutely dominating fashion.

Things were looking a little bleak in historic Hinkle Fieldhouse after an early season blowout loss at Louisville and the subsequent loss to lowly Evansville.  The 12-point loss at Duke was actually an encouraging sign, and a two-point loss to Xavier is nothing to be ashamed of, but a 4-4 record was.  Given the relative weakness of the Horizon League, Butler was facing the very real possibility of needing to win their conference tournament to even get a chance to repeat their National Final run of a year ago.

Now, at 8-4 with consecutive wins over Florida State, Utah and Stanford the future is looking a little brighter.  A win Saturday over Wazzou would be huge, as the Bulldogs won't see another ranked opponent the remainder of the season.

Quick Picks - Wednesday Dec 22nd

After nearly two weeks devoid of quality college hoops, today finally offers a bevy of quality games to get one last look at a lot of teams before the enter conference play.  If you are a night-owl, you are doubly in luck, with quality games airing at 11pm and 1AM EST tonight.

Harvard @ UConn -13:  The Huskies are a surprise at #4 in the country and undefeated.  It is possible they sleepwalk through this game, it has certainly been the Huskies mantra over past seasons to play to the level of their competition.  However, I think the men will be focused on not wanting to cede all the holiday attention to their record-breaking lady counterparts.  Plus, Jeremy Lin is gone and this Harvard team just isn't very good.  Gimme the Huskies big.

UCF -3.5 @ UMass:  If anyone is ripe for a let-down game it is the Knights.  After winning two of the biggest games in school history, defeating instate rivals Florida and Miami en route to their first ever appearance in the national rankings (#24 AP) the Knights look to keep their perfection alive visiting a reeling UMass squad.  UMass started the year 7-0 before dropping their last three contests to Boston College, Maine and a 25-point blowout to struggling Seton Hall. 

This line reflects a lot of the residual name recognition from the Marcus Camby-era Minutemen as well as the relative anonymity of the Knights basketball.  I can understand the potential for a letdown, but objectivly the Knights are 10-12 points better on a neutral floor.  I think they bring their A-game, win easily tonight, and enter C-USA play as one of the nation's only undefeated teams.

Texas @ Michigan State -6.5:  Texas is one of my sleeper teams to watch in March.  They are long and athletic and have dynamite freshman talent in Corey Joseph.  Michigan State just seems to be a little off in the early part of the season.  Knowing Tom Izzo, all those ills will be long forgotten by March, but here in December six and a half feels like way to many to lay in a game they could very well lose straight up.  Gimme the Longhorns and the points.

Dayton @ Seton Hall -7.5:  Is this line a typo??  I looked at four different sites to make sure I wasn't reading it wrong.  It's one of those games that made me wish I wagered for real instead of simply prognosticating for pride and column width...  Gimme the Flyers straight up, but the 7.5 makes it even cushier.  This is my first lock of the year.

Drexel @ Syracuse -13.5:  Don't sleep on the Dragons.  They've already knocked off Louisville in their beatiful and cavernous new YUM Center.  They won't be intimidated by the Carrier Dome.  Drexel is a legit tourney team and will compete with VCU, Old Dominion and George Mason in the better-than-advertised Colonial League.  I think the 'Cuse win at home, but I'll take the 13.5 going Drexel's way.

For the final selections, we'll tackle the wonderful trio of games tipping off at 11PM EST.  For those of us who start their Christmas Break tomorrow, it's a good night to wrap some presents and watch some Christmas Hoops!

Butler -8 @ Utah,  Kansas -10 @ Cal, Xavier +5 @ Gonzaga


Maniac's Record to Date: 12-8-1

Diamond Head Classic Quiet Christmas Gem

Lost amidst football bowl season, NBA Christmas festvities and NFL playoff pushes is a quiet college basketball gem in Honolulu.  None of the teams in this year's Diamond Head Classic field make your eyes pop out, but with the possible exception of a very down San Diego squad, none will make you quickly avert your eyes from the screen either.

The favorites would have to be Baylor in the top half of the bracket, and Butler and Florida State in the bottom, though don't sleep on Washington State who enters the tournament at 8-1, including a 30-point thrashing of Gonzaga.

I'll take Washington State over Baylor in an upset, and Florida State over Butler in Rd 2.  In the Final, give me the 'Noles in a close game.

Tournament MVP Pick:  Klay Thompson (Washington State)

Kansas Dodges Bullet in Selby's Debut

The nation's longest home winning streak lived on, but barely.  Kansas has gone more than three seasons, 67 games, without dropping a contest at the Phogg, but for the second time this season found themselves needing some late theatrics to overcome a Pac-10 foe.

This time it was the celebrated and much publicized freshman, Josh Selby, playing in his first ever collegiate game who bailed them out.  Trailing by two with twenty seconds to go, Selby knocked down a long three point shot from the right elbow extended.  USC failed to even get a quality look at the basket on successive attempts before a half court heave at the buzzer came tantalizingly close to a miracle.

For Kansas, they'll take the win, but some questions linger after being pushed to the brink by a team with next to no hope of playing in the NCAA Tournament  (editor note: yes I got your emails.  I know, they are serving a self-imposed post season ban this season). 

Several weeks ago it was UCLA threatening to derail the Jayhawks incredible streak.  There could be some small causes for concern, but for tonight, the Jayhawks are still undefeated and just scratching the surface of how good they can become with Selby in the fold.

Rocky Week in Rcky Top

It's definitely been a strange season already in Tennessee.  Bruce Pearl and the Vols off-court problems have recieved a ton of attention, but their performance on the court has been every bit as strange and erratic.

One week ago, one could have made a compelling case that Tennessee merited a Top 5 ranking.  No team in the country boasted a better pair of wins than the Vols ten point win over Villanova, and their not-as-close as the score seven point win at Pittsburgh.  Add in less impressive but still quality wins over VCU, Chattanooga and Missouri State and Tennessee's perfect 7-0 record carried a ton of weight.

So how do you explain the last seven days for Pearl's club?  The 89-82 loss to Oakland (of the Summit League, campus in Michigan, NOT "Oakland" Oakland...) made some sense.  Oakland has a good ballclub, and had already played fantastic in close losses to Michigan State and Illinois.  Their other three losses were to Purdue, Wright State and West Virginia; nothing to be ashamed of.  Tuesday's game, played only two days after a huge emotional dismantling of Pitt on the road, set up perfectly for the dreaded "let down" trap game.

Tonight's 49-48 loss to struggling Charlotte is tougher to explain away.  Charlotte entered play a distant shadow of last year's squad that contended for a tourney bid up until the final few weeks of the season, with a 4-6 record that included losses to Gardner-Webb, Coastal Carolina, Oregon State and Davidson.  Not only did Tennessee drop a second straight game at home, they finished with a point total that equals a normal half of play for the up-tempo Volunteers. 

So which team is the real Tennessee?  My guess is somewhere in the middle.  There is no need to panic quite yet in Knoxville, but it is fair to say some of the safety a good pre-conference slate of wins afford has slipped through the Vols fingers. 

The SEC East is as good as any conference in the nation, with Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt and Georgia all potential NCAA Tournament teams.  South Carolina, the presumptive last place team is no slouch either.  The West is off to a dreadful start, but Tennessee will have to make their way through a gauntlet to win that division.

For Vol fans, just buckle up and enjoy a rocky ride in Rocky Top.  With Pearl's 8-game suspension still looming, the uncertainty surrounding Tennessee is unlikely to fade for quite some time.

When the calendar flips to March, i expect the Vols to settle into the 5-8 seed range.   Nothing shameful in that, but with the heightened expectations beating two Top 10 teams before Christmas brings, it might be a tormenting season in Knoxville.

It's Not the "Vick", it's the Victims

"How does Commissioner Goddell feel about Michael Vick possibly becoming the MVP of the NFL??"

This question, voiced with horror, can be heard on nearly every two-bit and mainstream sports talk program across the nation.  The horror!  As if an NFL MVP was an elected official entrusted to enact public policy.

"How would you feel if your kid wanted to wear a Michael Vick jersey??  What message are we sending to our kids??"

I actually heard this discussed, at length on television today.  Even more horror! Aghast exasperation! Indignant repulsion!

Phew... now that I've expressed that reaction, perhaps now I am ready for a couch on an ESPN talk-about-sports show.  Here's how I'd explain the situation to my kids:

Son, if... and I repeat, if you grow to become a 6'3'', 220 pound man blessed with a nearly-superhuman ability to run a 40 yard dash in a sub 4.2 second time and throw a football eighty-plus yards on a rope, become the face of the NFL and play in multiple pro bowls, then inexplicably become the central figure in a multi-state illegal dog fighting ring, are investigated and incarcerated it's a long road back.  After your lengthy prison term, two years later and more than $100 million dollars lighter, rejoin the NFL amidst swarms of controversy surrounding your role as the third string QB, wait patiently for a year, then turn that opportunity into one of the most electric six week stretches of quarterback play the world has ever seen... you might, and I repeat, might, be granted some measure of conflicting public reprieve and a semi-normal life, though one tainted with revulsion and scorn by a sizable percentage of the population.

Son, are we clear?  Organizing a multi-state illegal dog fighting ring has consequences.  OK, good talk.

And you thought the birds and the bees was tough?  Fortunately you can get a nice segue by explaining boner meds to your nine year old boy who's seen the commercial roughly 42 times since kickoff. 

Look, I get it.  Michael Vick is Satan incarnate, he murdered lots of poor, innocent dogs.  It's an act almost as bizarre as it is cruel, given his station in life at the time.  Michael Vick needed more time in the film room?  Hard to find the time while masterminding an interstate criminal syndicate.

This is coming from a dog lover.  I have two whom my mother reluctantly acknowledges as her "grand puppies."  My dog completes an entry in our family March Madness pool.  Three years ago he even finished fourth.  Our long-time readers will even have seen a few columns penned ostensibly by my eldest dog, Pacer, who we refer to as our "practice kid."  The truth?  He didn't even write the articles!  I did!  I love him that stinkin' much.

Before writing this column, I  consulted him and he agrees.  The reason people hate Michael Vick isn't because he's a criminal.  It's because we really, really like dogs.

If that's your opinion, fine.  Harbor it, and harbor it long because no amount of persuasion will ever dissuade you.  At least own it.  You value dogs on a plane equal to humans. And that's fine.  Pacer appreciates it, but in the pantheon of athlete indiscretion and criminality, Michael Vick isn't even sniffing the Mount Rushmore.

Any Ravens fans out there?  Donte' Stallworth murdered a human being with his vehicle while driving drunk and high.  He served his 30 DAY prison sentence, took his one year NFL suspension and is back to work at a price tag of $900,000.

Several years back, guess who was invited to give the pre-game pep talk to the USC Football team?  Yup.  The Ohje, the Juice, or as he is more commonly called, "the Defendant" Orenthal James Simpson.  Now that's a hard one to defend.

I challenge each of our readers, find one team in the NFL with a roster completely devoid of a player convicted of domestic violence, assault, or some other crime.  I think you'll be doing some long research.

It's not just sports.  Our elevation of the morally unworthy is everywhere.  Prior to his scandal, Rod Blogovich was merely the Governor of Illinois.  It wasn't until he was impeached on corruption charges that he became a "Celebrity" worthy of hearing "You're Fired!"

My point is this.  Anyone writing a pro-Vick article is societally pressured, obligated to include some measure of personal condemnation to the piece. Feel free to introduce the element of race at your own conjecture, it is undoubtedly sewn somewhere into the sentimental fabric, but I would wager comfortably the true emotional conflict isn't so black and white, and it's not Michael Vick. It is his victims.

Root for Vick or curse him, I could honestly care less.  But let's collectively park our moral outrage for another, worthier cause that will inevitably sprout up within the next few weeks.  If you have difficulty "explaining to your kids" about Michael Vick, than I feel terrible for your children.

Fortunately, the true lesson and moral of the story is IN the story. The fact that it is still a topic of discussion teaches a lesson valuable to both the young and the old; some mistakes, while life may go on after them, never completely go away.  The rest should be easy.  Explaining right from wrong, extolling the virtue of honesty and compassion, embedding a sense of punishment for wrong action; that is the simple definition of the minimum expectations of a parent.

If you were expecting Michael Vick to do that for you, maybe children are not in your immediate best interests. Perhaps you should borrow a page from my wife's book; start first with a dog.


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Games to Watch - Saturday December 11th

For those of you who have the college football "in-between blues," that odd period where teams dangle in limbo for two to five weeks waiting for their bowl games...all of which mean absolutely NOTHING save for one, saddle up for a fantastic day of college hoops that will bring it from noon until well after midnight.


Here's a quick overview of a few games worth catching or at least DVR'ing.

12:00 PM:  UNLV @ Louisville - Both teams are off to flying starts, undefeated and already possessing a few quality wins.  Tomorrow is a great opportunity to find out if Louisville's fast start is an indication they can compete in the loaded Big East and also an opportunity for the left half of the country to get a chance to see a very good UNLV team play.  UNLV has had the Cards number, beating them in each of the past two seasons (Louisville teams that were better, at least on paper, than this year's squad.)

This might actually be the best game of the day, a great way to kick of some hoops watching before lunchtime.  For the UNLV kids, it will be like playing a game at 9AM with the time change.  That's tough to do, and I think they'll come out a little flat and jet lagged.  Give me the Cards laying 3.5

2:30 PM:  Wisconsin @ Marquette - This game has quietly become one of the better rivalry games in the country over the past few seasons.  Both teams have a strong similarity in that it seems every season they are picked somewhere near the middle of the pack in their respective conferences, and sure enough, every year they exceed expectations and head to the Tournament. 

This year looks to be playing out exactly the same way.  Both teams enter at 7-2, with their losses coming against ranked foes and in close games.  Both have a few quality wins under their belt but can desperatly use another one before tackling conference play in the two toughest conferences in the nation.

Marquette will have the valuable home crowd advantage but I have a feeling Wisconsin has a touch more discipline and a little more cohesion and poise at this early juncture in the season.  Gimme the Badgers +1.

3:15 PM:  Tennessee @ Pitt - The Vols have been one of the season's pleasant surprises.  Tomorrow will be one of Pearl's last games on the sidelines before his oddly-arranged SEC-only eight game suspension takes effect.  Both teams are athletic and very physically tough.  I like Pitt at home in a really good ball game but nine points is a lot to lay considering this will likely be a game in the fifties or sixties.  I'll take the Vols and the +9.

4:00 PM:  Kansas State @ Loyola (IL) -  Odd line of the day.  not sure how K-State is laying only 8.5.  Gimme the Wildcats in a 20+ point romp.

4:00 PM:  Dayton @ Old Dominion -  The Flyers are reeling, despite their 7-2 record.  However, this is a talented and experienced club that should turn the corner soon.  Old Dominion continues their aggressive schedule with yet another hopeful tourney team.  I think the Monarchs win at home, but I'll take the Flyers +10.5

4:30 PM:  Washington @ Texas A&M - Texas A&M can land a clear blow for the Big 12 versus the Pac 10 with a win today at home.  Texas A&M is off to a good start at 8-1, however their only win of note came over Temple.  Washington has been carrying the banner as the only ranked team in the Pac 10, but it's hard to put A&M any better than sixth in the loaded Big 12.  I'm not sure if Washington feels any pressure to prop up their sagging conference, but a loss today is actually pretty damaging to league's overall profile.  I'll take Washington on the road, minus one and a half.

5:15 PM:  Indiana @ Kentucky - One of my favorite rivalries takes place today, and though much of the shine has faded over the past decade with neither school managing to be good at coinciding times, it still means a ton to their respective fan bases.  Indiana is in year three of the Tom Crean Era, and call me a hater, but it doesn't seem any real progress has been made.  Meanwhile in the Bluegrass it took Calipari all of half a day to bring the 'Cats from "NIT" to "Final Four" caliber. 

There's still a pretty big hill to climb in Bloomington, and I don't think today will be a step in that direction.  Give me Big Blue laying the thirteen points.

6:00 PM:  Arizona @ BYU - Sean Miller's Cats seem to be on the right track to erasing the memory of last year's rare tourney absence.  It had been nearly thirty years since the Cats were left out, and I'm sure Miller would like to put another thirty years distance in the rear view mirror.  A win today in Provo would go a long way.  I think they'll get it.  Gimme Arizona +2.5

7:00 PM:  Virginia Commonwealth @ Richmond - The sneaky gem in today's bursting schedule is this top-tier matchup between the CAA and the A-10.  Both schools have designs on playing in March, however neither league is notorious for collecting armloads of at-large bids.  Both schools could really use the chip today's win would provide. 

VCU's two losses are quality; Tennessee and to lesser extent, South Florida.  They also boast quality wins over UCLA and Wake Forest.  Richmond's losses are a little less solid; Old Dominion and Iona, however their wins are better; particularly the win over Purdue.

This should be a really good game, likely close, so I'll take VCU +8

8:30 PM:  Gonzaga @ Notre Dame -  The Zags are really struggling, and at 4-4 can ill-afford many more losses if they plan to continue their decade-long NCAA Tournament streak.  Notre Dame was one of the season's early surprises until Kentucky took some of their shine Wednesday night.  The line on this one is huge at 10.5, a number I think reflects a lack of confidence in Gonzaga rather than a ton of faith in the Irish.  I'm not so sure that either is warranted.  Give me Gonzaga and the points, and don't be surprised if they clip them straight up.

Maniac's Picks: Louisville -3.5, Wisconsin +1, Tennessee +9, Kansas State -8.5, Dayton +10.5, Washington -1.5, Kentucky -13, Arizona +2.5, VCU +8, Gonzaga -10.5

Maniac Curse Bites Hoyas in Upset

Ah, it feels good to once again have our bad-karma inducing powers return.  Just days after placing Georgetown an argueable #4 in Bracketeering, the Hoyas got upset on the road at Temple.

For the Hoyas, it is not really an "upset."  Temple is a good ballclub that will almost certainly make the tourney, and the game was in their gym.  No real harm done for Georgetown.  But for Temple, the win was absolutely enormous, earning the Owls the valuable resume win that had eluded them earlier this season in losses to Cal and Texas A&M. 

Adding Georgetown to the hit list, the Owls now own victories over Georgetown, Maryland, Seton Hall and Georgia and will get a crack at Phily rival Villanova before heading into Atlantic 10 conference play.

Leading the charge for Temple was Ramone Moore, who referred to the bigtime atmosphere surrounding the game as "a dream come true."  The dream must have been even sweeter after netting a career-high 30 points in the winning effort.  Moore is the Owls leading scorer on the season at 12.1 ppg, and continued to pick up some of the slack for preseason A10 POY candidate Lavoy Allen who has barely averaged double figures.

Georgetown faces two lesser opponents before their next true test, Dec 22nd's dandy at Memphis.

Xavier Erases Sting of the 1.2 Seconds That Weren't

Last year Butler and Gordon Hayward clipped Xavier on one of the more bizarre endings you will ever see in college basketball.  Gordon Hayward put the Bulldogs up one with seemingly 1.2 seconds remaining.  However, after referees consulted the monitors for a seven minute delay, they determined the clock had inadvertantly stopped for roughly one and half seconds during the play.

The refs retroactively corrected the timing error, counted the Hayward basket and then determined the game was over.

Muskie fans hadn't forgotten the tough-to-swallow loss and were revved up for revenge.  The Cintas center was packed in a "Whiteout" with all fans wearing white shirts for tonight's rematch, and many came equipped with signs referrencing the clock error and using words like "cheated" to describe the controversial ending.

The fans got their wish for revenge, though it certainly wasn't pretty to watch.  Xavier shot just 32% from the floor and an abysmal 11% from behind the arc.  And they still outshot Butler.  The Bulldogs shot just 31% from the floor, and were it not for 16 of 18 from the line (the only two misses coming in the final minute) the score could have been even worse than the 51-49 final.

Butler managed only 15 made baskets from the floor during the entire game, including a nearly 15 minute drought in the first half.

It wasn't pretty, but it was a win the Muskies desperately needed to keep their at-large profile afloat.

With the loss, Butler dropped to 4-4 on the season, with no ranked opponents on tap for the remainder of the season.

Wazzou Hammers Zags

Washington State can now claim their supremecy as the top team in Eastern Washington.

OK, so that might not be the loftiest title a team can ascribe to, but their 77-57 pounding of reeling Gonzaga might indicate as much positive for Washington State as it does put up some caution tape around Gonzaga's assumed automatic presence in the NCAA Tournament.

Washington State boasts one of the nation's best scorers you might not have heard of in sophomore sensation Klay Thompson.  Thomson, the son of former Laker Mychael Thompson is pacing the Cougars with 21.6 ppg.  With the win, Washington State moves to 6-1 on the season, their only loss coming on a five point loss to Kansas State. 

The win over Gonzaga is the first real quality win they have posted, though wins over Portland and Fresno State are decent, however their performance last night places them close to Arizona as teams who could concievably give Washington a run for the money in the still-down Pac 10.

Washington State's schedule remains soft leading up to conference play aside from a Dec 22nd tussle with Mississippi State.  However things will heat up quickly, as they dive into conference play with a pair of road games at UCLA and USC.

Jared Sullinger is a BEAST

Ohio State freshman Jared Sullinger poured in 40 points to help the Buckeyes remain unbeaten on the strength of a 34-14 run to close the game and quell the upset bid from IUPUI.  Sullinger added 13 boards but perhaps the most impressive facet of his performance of the year was that he racked up an Ohio state freshman record 40 points on just 17 shot attempts.

Sullinger was simply too much for the Jaguars to handle, battering the smaller front line into foul after foul.  he made the most of his free throw visits, connecting on 16 of 23 attempts.

Sullinger moves to the top spot of the March Maniacs freshman power poll, passing the unfortunatly and somewhat mysteriously) injured Duke point guard Kyrie Irving.

Moving into the second slot is do-everything Kentucky power forward, empahsis on the word "power", Terrance Jones.  Jones exploited Notre Dame's lack of atleticism, pouring in 27 points and 13 boards in the Wildcats impressive win over the Irish.  Jones is one of only three players in the nation averaging more than 20 points and 10 rebounds per game.

Sullinger not only is the top frosh, but is at the top of our POY ballot as well.

The rest of the rankings are as follows:

1.  Jared Sullinger (Ohio State)
2.  Terrance Jones (Kentucky)
3.  Kyrie Irving (Duke)
4.  Tobias Harris (Tennessee)
5.  Brandon Knight (Kentucky)

Battle of Middling Majors

Tonight's matchup between little-guy heavyweights Butler and Xavier will take on a different tenor than last year's thrilling buzzer-beater classic.  In 2009, both schools were already thinking about seeding and subsequent deep runs in the Tournament.  This year?  The loser finds themself as one of the first teams getting an early spot on the dreaded "bubble."

Butler enters at 4-3 with losses to Louisville, Evansville, and Duke.  Their best wins are over Siena and Loyola-Chicago.  Xavier enters at 5-2 with losses to Miami (OH) and Old Dominion but even their wins have been a little uneasy, needing overtime for IPFW and Wofford.

This year's game features a matchup of two of the better guards in the country, Butler's Shelvin Mack and Xavier's Tu Holloway.  However this game will likely be won by the team that can control the boards and the paint. 

Maniac's Pick:  Give me the hometown Muskies laying the two.

XAVIER - 2

Aztecs Best Team in Nation No One Knows About

San Diego State posted their third impressive double-digit win in a week, blasting Cal 77-57 last night in Berkley. The win moved the Aztecs to a perfect 9-0 on the season and should likely turn the page on 2010 at 15-0 before entering MWC play.

Coach Steve Fisher summed it up well after the game, saying "“We’re a good team, to come in here and win the way we did lets a lot of people know that. It continues to create validity of who we are.”

Validate indeed.  Unlike many of the teams perched in the Top 25, the Aztecs have done it in impressive fashion against quality opponents.  while they have yet to tussle with a true heavyweight, six of the nine wins have come against Top 100 competition, and the win over IUPUI looks even better after the Jags led #2 Ohio State for 34 minutes before wilting down the stretch.

Kawhi Leonard and Fisher are sowing the seeds for a deep march run

Joining the Aztecs in the Top 25 are conference mates UNLV and BYU, giving the Mountain West three ranked teams.  Meanwhile, the Pac-10 (Washington) and the SEC (Tennessee and Kentucky) have just one and two respectively.

It is not unreasonable to project the MWC winner could legitimately earn a #2 seed this March.

Tough Night for Vandy's Brad Tinsley

In a night marked by buzzer beaters in the NBA, it was the buzzer beater that wasn't that tipped the evening's most thrilling college contest.

Losing to Mizzou on the road is certainly nothing for vanderbilt to be ashamed of, but the manner they lost is one that Kevin Stalling's club is undoubtably kicking themselves over, and point guard Brad Tinsley might have some trouble sleeping after.

Vandy star Jeff Taylor did everything right on the final possession of regulation, dribbling behind his back and creating a double team to pass back to a wide open Tinsley, a good shooter, for a last second look from three.  Tinsley's shot missed badly to the left as the buzzer sounded.  In OT, the 'Dores and Tinsley had a chance for redemption, in possession of the ball in a tied game and the shot clock off.  Instead of a buzzer-beating shot attempt, Tinsley's mightmare finish snowballed.  His pass to Taylor was intercepted, leading to a fast break layup AND a Tinsley foul making the lead Tiger lead three.

The ball again found Tinsley's hand as his 35-foot prayer failed to draw iron at the buzzer and the Commodores fell by three points.

It's certainly a tough loss and a tougher day for Tinsley, but Vandy proved they are going to be a real handful in the SEC and looked like a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team.

Video footage below courtsey of YouTube.com

NBA Goes March Madness

It was a crazy night last night in the world of professional hoops, with the NBA going March Madness with three buzzer beaters last night.  My fave was the absolutely flawlessly executed inbounds alley-oop from luc Richard Mbah-Moute to Andrew Bogut to push the Deer past the Maniac's beloved Pacers.

Enjoy!

Bracketeering - Dec 5th, 2010, The Late Thanksgiving Edition

Welcome fellow maniacs to the season's belated Thanksgiving edition of Bracketeering.  We've recently grown a little bit in readers, so for those of you newly aquainted to the rankings, we do things a little differently here at MarchManiacs.com.  The rankings are an amalgamation of both objective and subjective qualities; wins matter, but WHO you have won and lost to and the MANNER in which the games unfolded matter most. 

That said, 10-0 without a high quality win doesn't automatically get ya' in.  More than likely, it keeps you out.  But that brings me to the final component of the Bracketeering rankings; what do you look like as a team and what is the potential for improvement.  There's a reason we tend to be a little ahead when lifting a team up in the rankings (example, two years ago we had Louisville #3 when they were #14 in the AP Poll.  By March, they were the #1 overall seed in the tournament. 

There are a bunch of other examples as well, Syracuse last year as well as Ohio State)  The reason it tends to work that way?  We watch a lot of games.  You will rarely find an opinion on a team we haven't watched play multiple times.

Where does the Maniac find the time?  Easy.  Mom and Dad have great satellite TV in their basement, which I live in....

On to Bracketeering!!

FINAL FOUR:

1. Duke - Slotting Duke at the top isn't really a daring move, but having them anywhere else would be a foolish one.  The defending champs are not only poised to repeat, they are actually considerably better than last year.  John Scheyer was fantastic last season but even as terrific as he was, it is impossible not deny Kyrie Irving is a significant upgrade at the point.  Ditto for Mason Plumlee.  Zoubek was a rebounding beast in March, but Plumlee gives the Devils a true post scoring presence and runs the break like an NBA lottery pick.  Even if he gets in foul trouble, they don't lose much bringing his brother in off the bench.  Watch how many times they lob it into the Plummle boy's in a given game.  Their abilities inside are clearly a focal point of Duke's offensive attack; something they have lacked for several seasons.


The starting five has upgraded, Nolan Smith returned, and Duke has even improved their depth.  Duke can legitimately play nine guys, which anyone who has watched Coach K over the years knows is more than enough to cut down the nets.  Coach K's previous four champs all relied primarily on seven players total.

Oh, and for good measure, Final Four MOP Kyle Singler decicded to spurn a likely first round NBA draft selection to return for his senior season.


Take all the reasons above, and factor in a questionable ACC and it is not too early to start "can Duke run the table" talk.

2. Ohio State - We had them #2 pre-season and the AP and ESPN polls have caught up.  The Buckeyes have the balance, athleticism and defensive abilities to cut down the nets.  Freshman Jared Sullinger is an absolute stud.  Think Blake Griffin.  The skill sets are very, very similar.  Blake Griffin was the #1 overall pick in the draft three years ago, and Sullinger is so good the comparison isn't an insult to either one of them.


What really puts Ohio State clearly ahead of some of the teams right below them is the senior leadership and all-around game of David Lighty.  Lighty was a freshman on the 2007 National Runner-Up team.  His defense is every bit as stellar as it was then, but his offensive game has really developed.  I liken this Ohio State team a lot to last year's Syracuse club.  Lighty plays the Wes Johnson role; a better defender and not quite as good a scorer (though a better shooter).


John Diebler is a stone cold assassin from the arc, a la Andy Routins and Lauderdale gives them the Rick Jackson/Onawaku-like banger inside.

Their win two weeks ago over Florida was as complete a ballgame as I have seen a team play this season and gave a good glimpse as to how good this year's Buckeyes can be.  Oddly enough, even after losing our National POY Evan Turner Ohio State is even better in 2010.

3. Kansas - This ranking is based more on gut feel and intuition than any imperical evidence.  The NCAA ended their glacial-paced stalemate over freshman Josh Selby's eligibility and the point guard will be ready to join the team officially on December 18th.  Considering most scouts had him rated on par with Duke's Kyrie Irving, the addition of Selby undoubtably makes the Jayhakws a more viable contender and eases some of the pain of losing Sherron Collins.


Kansas has yet to endure a true test, though their is nothing to be ashamed of beating Arizona and UCLA back-to-back.  However, the one-point margin over a really pedestrian UCLA team yesterday is cause for some pause.  I'm banking that the edition of Selby will elevate the Jayhawks to true national contender status, and is why they get the nod here over Kansas State, Michigan State and several worthy Big East squads.

Tuesday night's game against Memphis (7PM ESPN) is one I'm really looking forward to get a better read on the Jayhawks, though they will still be a work in progress until Selby suits up.

4. Georgetown - I'm going out on a little bit of a limb here, with Syracuse, Villanova and especially Pitt being rated much higher in the AP polls, however from the early eye test, Georgetown is the team to beat in the Big East.  With wins over Old Dominion, NC State and Missouri they have already passed some quality early tests.  The OT win over Missouri at absolute breakneck speed was as impressive as it was surprising.  Anyone think they'd ever see a John Thompson III coached team put up 111 points?!?  I sure didn't.




Austin Freeman is my early nod for BEast POY, and Jason Clark and Chris Wright join the party to give the Hoyas quite possibly the best backcourt in the nation.  Thursday's trip to Temple gives the Hoyas another chance to notch a good resume win before a trip to Memphis and begining the gauntlet of BEast play.

ELITE EIGHT:
5. Pitt - I've been tough on Pitt over the years, and the arguement can be made perhaps I am being a little tough on them here as well.  In my defense, 90% of the shots I have taken had Pitt have been proven absolutely correct.



So here's my early read on Pitt:  They are a tough, very tough, defensive ballclub that makes it difficult to initiate offense and can wear out the full 35 second clock.  They are a very good rebounding team and pound the glass on both ends.  Their difficiencies show up only on the offensive end. 


Ashton Gibbs can score and is a good creator on offense.  Wannamaker is a steady point guard, though not noted as a big offensive threat.  In order for Pitt to be a Final Four team, they are going to need big production from McGhee, Brown and Taylor. 


It's another fantastic start for the Panthers, racing out to a 9-0 record.  Their 2-point win over Texas was a fantastic game, and the win over Maryland could look better by the end of the year if the Terps surprise in the ACC.  Other than that, the resume is really blank.  They sqeaked out a win over Rhode Island in their opener and really haven't taken on a reasonable opponent aside from that.



This Saturday they tackle Tennessee in a game that will be a nice litmus test for both teams.  After that we get a pre-New Year's treat when they open BEast play Dec 27th at Connecticut.

6. Kansas State - There's just something that isn't quite clicking with the year's Wildcat squad.  Despite entering the season with their highest preseason ranking in school history, #3, the 'Cats seem to be adjusting a little slowly to life without Denis Clemente.  Jacob Pullen recieved most of the headlines last season, but it is difficult to understate the impact each man had in making the other better.  The two were able to share ballhandling and scoring duties simultaneously, something Pullen simply won't be able to do with Rodney McGruder and Martavious Irving. 



Curtis Kelley gives them tremendous athleticism and defense on the interior, as well as a dramatically improved post game.  Continuing to develop their inside game will make Pullen even more effective in the backcourt.


The disappointing Duke performance aside, and it is hard to find much fault with K-State's early returns.  They've notched double-digit wins at Gonzaga and over Virginia Tech, as well as quality wins over Washington State and James Madison. 



Their preconference schedule includes a trip to face Florida (played in Miami) and a Christmas Eve visit from UNLV, two more excellent challenges for Frank Martin's squad before entering Big 12 play.  They certainly will enter as the favorite, along with rival Kansas, however don't be surprised if they are joined by Missouri, Baylor and Texas, three squads with the potential to win the very strong Big 12.

7. Michigan State - Yes, the Spartans already have two losses but in Bracketeering a five point road loss in Cameron Indoor is no cause for punishement.  Neither is a five point loss on a neutral floor to UConn.  Huskies fans will likely take exception to being listed below Sparty; but consider two important criteria.  One, what is the ceiling for this ballclub?  Two, who have they played and how have they played them.
 


For Tom Izzo, the team on the floor in November is nearly always nowhere close to as good as the team will be in March.  If any coach has been better at "coaching up" a squad over the last 15 years, I don't know who it is.  The good news for Izzo?  This Spartan team doesn't have that far to go to be a legit Final Four contender.  With Kalin Lucas and Durell Summers and Draymond Green back in the fold, along with solid role players in Delvon Roe and Corey Lucious, plus some valuable size in Garrick Sherman and the talent and experience is clearly there.

Balancing out close losses to UConn and Duke are impressive victories over South Carolina and Washington.  Never one to duck a daunting schedule, Izzo's club takes on Syracuse this Tuesday and hosts Texas on the 22nd before starting Big Ten play on New Year's Eve with Minnesota.

8. UConn - Hands down, Kemba Walker is the undisputed National POY if the season ended today.  Of course it doesn't, and I have a feeling he is going to start facing some unique defensive looks if someone doesn't emerge quickly to help the 6'0'', 180 pound lead guard.  Outside of Walker, no one one the team averages more than 12 ppg.  Only big man Alex Orihaki is in double figures.

The Huskies followed up their impressive win over Michigan State by absolutely boat-racing Kentucky the next day in Hawaii.  Since returning to the mainland they've (hopefully) gotten their letdown stinkbomb out of their system, struggling with New Hampshire before taking the lead late, 62-55. 

Things remain calm for UConn until Dec 27th when we will get a true feel for this team over a daunting two week stretch that includes three road tests; @ Pitt, @ Notre Dame and @ Texas.  Win two of those three, and they will certainly vault over Michigan State.  Until then, call me just a touch skeptical the Kemba Walker show can continue to knock off top competition.    


Sweet and lurking: The next tier




 From here on in, things get pretty tricky.  If we know one thing about this early season it is that parity is reigning supreme.  A healthy arguement could be made for about forty teams, and in truth, very few have satisfactorily serparated themselves thus far.  This is where the Maniac eye comes in to play.  You will find a few teams that have earned their slot on the floor who didn't make the cut (Notre Dame) as well as a few who haven't earned it who snag a slot (Kentucky).  Here's our take on the Sweet Sixteen tier.

9. Illinois - Demetri McCammey and company showed they belong among the nation's elite, as well as the Big Ten's which will prove every bit as competitive with their OT loss to Texas in Madison Square Garden.  This weekend the Illini easily handled a good Gonzaga squad.  Their wins over Maryland and North Carolina are two valuable chips in their favor, as well as a nice frame of reference for how much stronger the Big Ten is versus the ACC in 2010-2011.  The renewal of their border rivalry with Missouri on Dec 22nd will be an absolute dandy.

10. UNLV - Not many teams have done more in the preconference season than the Runnin' Rebs.  They have already knocked off Wisconsin as well as notching double digit wins over Murray State, Virginia Tech and Illinois State.  The Mountain West is one of the best conferences in the nation this year, not just one of the best non-BCS leagues.  From top to bottom this conference is better than the Pac-10 and SEC and certainly wouldn't be embarrassed by the ACC either. Winning that league this year could be plenty to earn a #2 seed if UNLV or San Diego State continue their stellar early season non-conference play.


11. Missouri -  The Tiger's OT loss to Georgetown is every bit as good as a win in our book.  Missouri is still playing at a breakneck tempo that is going to give teams fits all season.  This weeks matchup with Vanderbilt is going to be an awesome experiement in tempo control.  If the Tigers can speed up the 'Dores, they should roll.  If Vandy can keep the game in the 60's or lower, it is going to be fascinating to see if Mizzou can still score and defend efficiently.  Here's betting they can, and will.

12. Purdue - The loss of senior Robbie Hummel to his second ACL injury in as many years is a horrible blow to an otherwise Top 5 team.  However, be cautious in writing the Boilermakers off just yet.  E'Twaun Moore and JuJuan Johnson both chose to forgo the NBA draft and return to West Lafayette for one more season.  Purdue can compete with any team in the nation, but they are going to have to getter better play out of the trio of John Hart, Kelsey Barlow and Lewis Jackson in order to do so.  

The eleven point road loss to Richmond wasn't a good effort, but Richmond is a legit tourney team and will contend to win the A-10.  Purdue showed some real guts in their OT win over Virginia Tech (who is already sowing the seeds of yet another angst-filler bubble straddling season) and they follwed it up Saturday with a pasting of Alabama.  The Big Ten is brutal this year, easily the best and most complete league in the country, so to expect the Boilermakers to post the same record this season as last would be asking a bit much.  Don't infer that to mean this isn't a very, very good team.



Purdue will continue to have a pretty light load leading into conference play, thus a low RPI as the calendar turns to 2011.  However, they will have ample opportunity to earn huge resume wins nearly every week once Big Ten play commences.

13. Kentucky -  The Wildcats certainly have some work to do to even begin to approach their considerable talent.  That was extremely evident in this weekend's two point loss to struggling North Carolina (who much like the Wildcats will be considerably better in six to eight weeks.)  However they showed flashes of their potential brilliance in their routine win over Washington in Maui.  The 84-67 drubbing at the hands of UConn raised some concerns as the seemed unable to corral Kemba Walker despite the tremedous athleticism the Wildcats posses in their backcourt.  That tells me this team is still a bit immature and needs to strengthen their resolve on the defensive end of the court.

Brandon Knight has been impressive early, and looks to be the real deal though he will get very little media attention with Kyrie Irving and Josh Selby stealing many of the headlines.  Kentucky will struggle all year with stretches of offensive ineptitude unless they can find someone other than Darius Miller who can consistently knock down open jump shots.  Until then, expect the Cats to see a lot of zones and collapsing defenses on stud freshman Terrance Jones.

Wednesday's visit from Notre Dame will be an interesting test for both teams, and New Year's Day's trip to Louisville's new KFC Center is about as fun as college hoops gets.
14. Washington - Washington took a pair of defeats in Maui, a well played loss to Kentucky followed by another close defeat to Michigan State.  They do own a 106-63 blasting of Virginia (who beat Minnesota last week) and an equally thorough dismantling of Texas Tech  (Pat Knight might want to start updating the resume...).

Monday's tussle with Portland should be an interesting under-the-radar game, and this weekend's trip to Texas A&M will be an interesting ball game as well.  Once Pac-10 play begins, it appears Washington should be able to do some damage, as no one other than Arizona has shown much so far this season.  Isiah Thomas has shown some flashes of what was expected of him prior to last year's freshman campaign, averaging 15 points and a plus 2:1 assist/turnover ratio.

15. San Diego State - I really like this Aztec team and flirted with slotting them as high as ninth.  Khawi Leonard is a bigtime player, but he is by no means a one-man show.  Steve Fisher's squad has already gone into the Kennel and notched a comfortable win over the Zags and follwed it up with a 14 point win over the other WCC favorite, St. Mary's.  Tonight they downed Wichita State by 17, continuing their stellar preconference campaign.

The schedule is pretty barren over the next three weeks with a Cal team that has at times looked completely inept offensively the only real obstacle to starting the year 16-0.  Following that, things begin to get a lot more competitive with home and home's with UNLV, BYU, New Mexico, Air Force and Utah in MWC play. 

16. Tennessee - Slotting the Vols at #16 puts them considerably lower than the polls currently have them, and truthfully the Vols have earned a better ranking with their on-court play.  If their off-court play, specifically the issues with Bruce Pearl's suspension that have me still unsold on whether or not Tennessee is a serious contender to earn a top-four seed come March.

Wins over Villanova and VCU are impressive.  This weekend's trip to Pittsburgh is one you are going to want to DVR.  Both teams employ a similar athletic, defense-first style of play and it will be a treat to see who plays it better.

The SEC East is as good as any division in college basketball while the SEC West is simply dreadful.  Unfortunatly for the Vols, residing in the East gives them eight games against Kentucky, Florida, Vandy and Georgia respectively.  Add in Jan 5th's annual Memphis tilt and the Vols are going to get plenty of chances to earn some more big wins.

Bracket Busts: Five early season disappointments

Butler - What a difference a year makes.  Six months ago the Bulldogs were a mere few inches from capturing a fairytale-like National Championship.  This year they have already been blownout by Louisville and Duke in addition to a very disappointing loss to Evansville.  With games with Xavier, Stanford and Utah still looming Butler better learn how to play without Gordon Hayward quickly or else they may find themselves needing to win the Horizon's automatic bid in order to return to the Dance.






Cal - No one was expecting Mike Montgomery's troops to be a Final Four team this year, but they certainly were expected to earn a tourney invite.  The Bears have some major work to do in order to make that expectation a reality.  The low point came in the Old Spice Classic where they scored FIVE first half points en route to a humbling loss to Notre Dame.  They were also humbled in a 68-46 loss to Boston College (who has already dropped a game to Yale).

Perhaps no team better emphasises the tremendous balance and inconsistency across the national landscape than Cal.  Despite those two terribly played losses they do own impressive wins; a 25-point pasting of New Mexico and a 57-50 win over Temple.  Tonight's three point win over Iowa State isn't a huge deal, but they did show signs of coming out of their offensive coma and will get a huge opportunity to soften damage of the two losses Wednesday night when they host San Diego State.

Gonzaga - The Zags were underrated so long that they are now flirting with entering the territory of badly overrated.  Their is nothing embarrassing about losses to San Diego State, Illinois and Kansas State.  However at some point you have to beat some quality teams if you have intentions of  being perceived as quality yourself.  In accordance with their always daunting non-conference scheduling Gonzaga gets a few more cracks at it with games against Xavier, Washington State, Notre Dame, Baylor and Memphis.  Three losses in that bunch might put them in recently-unfamiliar territory; needing to win the WCC to earn entry to the tourney.

The Missouri Valley - For the past decade there has been good reason for the big boys to fear a visit from a member of the Valley.  Wichita State, Creighton and Northern Iowa have all had their fair share of giant-slaying glory including some memorable tourney runs.  With the way this early season has played out with every team dropping at least two games in addition to notching very few marquee wins, it is shaping up to be another one-bid season for the MVC.

Colorado - There was some growing sentiment before the season that standout sophomore Alex Burks and the Buffs could be a good sleeper team in the Big 12.  At 4-3 with losses to Georgia, San Fransisco and a sixteen point schelacking by Harvard, it seems sleeper might have been better termed sleeping.

Half Court Heaves:  Teams Worth Keeping an Eye On:

Cleveland State (10-0, but only quality opponent they face all year is South Florida.  Still they might be able to make things interesting for Butler in the Horizon)

Cincinnati (8-0) - Don't look now, but there is no reason the Bearcats shouldn't be 16-0 entering Big East play.

UCF (8-0) - The Knights opened some eyes with their win over Florida this week.  The Knights still have contests with Miami (FL) and UMass before entering play in the balanced Conference USA

Possible Tourney Teams as of Today:

Richmond, Temple, Dayton, Vanderbilt, Murray State, St. Mary's, Gonzaga, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, St. John's, West Virginia, Georgia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, Florida, Marquette, Texas, Louisville, Maryland, UAB, Memphis, So. Miss, VCU, Old Dominion, George Mason, Drexel, Boston College, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Miami (FL), Xavier, Northwestern, Kent State, BYU, New Mexico, Arizona, Washington State, Charleston, IPFW,

The Mighty Mastadons have only 2 losses, both close games with Xavier & Cincinnati