First, a HUGE "Thank you" to our loyal readers - it looks like an amazing 2009 season on the horizon. But...for those of you who can't wait for it to unfold, let me give you a glimpse into the hardwood future...
1. North Carolina will get a few stern tests this year... but the first one is not from Wake Forest on Jan 11th. It is going to be another twenty-plus'er, don't let the folks at ESPN get you all geeked for that game, unless you just want to see what could be the first truly transcendent team since Tark and LJ's 1990-91 UNLV team. UNC's tests will come from the likely suspects; The ACC tourney, at Duke on February 11th. If they enter that game undefeated and emerge the same way, don't expect them to even be tested until the season finale at home versus...Duke. Oh, by the way, that's Tyler Hansbrough's grand finale at Chapel Hill. Unless he has an anuerism during pregame chest bumping, I don' see Psycho T going out a loser on his home floor, do you?
The Maniac's Take? I really think they are going to run the table. I wanted to take the safe route, "someone will get them, it's too hard...blah blah blah..."
They truly are that good with NO discernible weakness. They are not jump shot dependent. Shots going astray? Pound it inside to their stable of bigs. The other team gets hot from the perimeter? UNC amps up the pressure, creates turnovers and gets easy buckets. They score more quickly and easily than any team that can also defend I have seen since, well, UNLV.
So, it's on the record. UNC runs the table. (I write while chomping on a rolled up towel...)
(But if they were going to slip up, aside from the obvious ACC Tourney, Final 4, etc. don't overlook a Jan 28th visit to Florida State. The Noles suck, but seem to always have the Heels number at home).
Seriously, those guys are freakin' good.2. While other big-name conferences are crying over teams left out, the Missouri Valley sneaks three teams into the Big Dance. My picks? Creighton, Illinois St. and Evansville (though I like Drake as well...)
3. The A-10 gets just one. Dayton is a good ballclub, but I don't trust them just yet. St. Joes has been abysmal, ditto for UMass and Temple. Rhode Island has an outside shot but would need 12-13 wins in conference to get there. Xavier should be a lock, despite recent stumbles. Let's just say there are a lot of power conferences that will be rooting for the Muskies to win the A-10 tourney this year.
4. Somehow, someway, the SEC will earn 5 bids. It won't be pretty. But somehow four teams besides Tennessee are going to scrape their way into 7-12 seeds. I think Kentucky will surprise and emerge as the second best team in the SEC (Jodie Meeks is the best off-guard in the country, but I will listen to arguments for Hardin and AJ Abrams (who is 5'10''... so really not an "off" guard, yet I digress)
From there, you are left with Arkansas (I don't want to overvalue the Oklahoma game, but at, say, 9-7 in conference, that win tips the pendulum in their favor), LSU, Florida, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Alabama and Auburn are awful; I don't care what their records are. Ditto for Georgia and Mississippi St. I liked Ole Miss before Chris Warren got hurt, so they are out too.
When push comes to shove, gimme Arkansas, UF and LSU, with Vandy just missing.
Who's been better in 2008-2009 so far??5. Davidson will get screwed on their seeding, despite posting a 16-0 SoCon record and going 27-3 overall, They still will not be a top 4 seed. Their three losses will all be Top 4 seeds; Oklahoma, Duke, and Purdue. Yet Davidson will end up a 5 or 6. We love Steph, but that Purdue beating left a residue with the committee. Write it down.
6. But we DO really love Steph. He will narrowly edge Tyler Hansbrough for National Player of the Year. From there, Blake Griffin, Ty Lawson and Jodie Meeks round out my ballot.
7. The Boeheim (or "bubble" for March Maniacs neophytes) will include two preseason Top 10 teams. Gonzaga and Louisville will sweat it out on Selection Sunday, but both do get in and immediately become the 7-10 seed NO ONE wants to see in the second round. Matter of fact, UConn prays Gonzaga doesn't fall into their bracket...
8. The Mountain West is the best conference no one in the country gives a care about. They have six teams who could make a legit run at the tourney. UNLV and BYU are locks. New Mexico, San Diego State, Utah and Air Force wouldn't be stunners to be included, and TCU and Wyoming don't suck. That leaves only Colorado State...who does suck. But so do Georgia, South Florida, St. Johns, Oregon State, Indiana, Iowa State... if you get my point.
That said? Only two end up dancing. The top two win too many games and the middle cannibalizes each other, similar to the A-10 last year (In February, people were talking five bids...by the time it was all said and done? Just two.)
9. The biggest "snubs" on selection Sunday? Here are my six or seven who make the most waves: Vanderbilt, Drake, Villanova, Miami (FL), Maryland, Michigan (I know...again), and the loser of VCU/George Mason. The one who takes the hose but no one cries? VMI, who gets edged out by Seth Curry and the Liberty Flames in a great game about a week before "Championship Week" starts...
10. Someone way dumber than you or me will kick your can in your tourney office pool. Knowledge is power! However, when it comes to sports, nothing is concrete or absolute. If it were, we wouldn't watch...and you wouldn't be reading. So relax and enjoy the ride. It is a game of bounces and emotion, of momentum and minute inches; the difference between winning and losing often just a few whistles, a box out, a free throw (sorry Memphis fans...)
It really is a beautiful thing...
Almost as beautiful as those pretty uniforms on the 13 seed the hot chick in the cubicle caddy-corner from you correctly pegged in the Sweet 16 sending you to certain defeat...
Enjoy the ride, and have a great New Year!
~ The Maniac.
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