Can Penn State Make the Tourney?

Penn State struck again today.  This time the victim was #15 Wisconsin.  It is the third time in two weeks the Nittany Lions have knocked off a Top 25 opponent.  The question after the first upset was "how the heck did that happen?"  After the second it was, "can that really happen again?"

After the third, the question is now, "can Penn State actually make the NCAA Tournament?!?"

The answer is short, but not so simple; "probably not."

Even with the win today the Nittany Lions are still only 12-8, 5-4 in Big Ten play.  The dug themselves a pretty deep early hole with losses to Maine (ouch), Mississippi (less bad, but still 'ouch'), and a humiliating 62-39 loss to Maryland.

Taking a look at the Lions remaining schedule, let's assume they need to get to 18 wins (minimum) and then win at least one game in the conference tournament to merit at-large consideration.  That means they need AT LEAST six wins in their remaining contests.

Up next for Penn State is a tough trip to Illinois, followed by a visit from Michigan and a trip to Michigan State.  In all reality if they fail to get two of those three, it is probably curtains for the Nittany Lions.

Let's assume for arguement's sake they do pick up the two wins they need.  They would then need to steal four wins from the following list:  Northwestern, Minnesota, @Wisconsin, @Northwestern, Ohio State and @Minnesota.  They will likely be underdogs in five of those six games (possibly favored at home against Minnesota but not likely).

It's a very tough road ahead to Talor Battle and the Nittany Lions, but my best bet is they fall about one or two wins short and are left wondering what could have been... they are literally two plays away from being in the midst of a six game winning streak with five wins over ranked opponents.  Ohio State needed a late defensive stop to eek out a three point win at home, and Purdue beat the Lions on a baseline jumper at the buzzer, 63-62.  Win even one of those games, and the situation looks dramatically different.

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Huge Showdown in the Valley - Northern Iowa Visits Missouri State

The following is an excerpt from a column The Maniac writes for TheSporksGeek.com -
Great game tomorrow night if your cable provider is carrying it!

Northern Iowa Panthers @ Missouri State Bears -7

You are forgiven if you don’t know much about the Missouri State Bears.  Most casual fans don’t.  Don’t let that lull you into ignoring one of the nation’s best mid-majors in 2011.  

The Bears enter at 17-4, 9-1 in the competitive Missouri Valley.  They got away with looking ahead in their last contest, escaping with a 73-70 win over Drake.  Don’t expect their focus to be anywhere other than on the Northern Iowa Panthers tomorrow night.

Northern Iowa captured the nation’s fancy with their improbable upset of #1 Kansas en route to the Sweet 16.  This team, however, is not that team; Ali Farokhamensh has gradated, and the Panthers have been good, but certainly not great this season without him.  They enter the game at 16-6 (7-3), but without some of the big wins they captured along the way last season.  

.... check out the rest at thesportsgeek.com

Can You Say "Trap Game"? BYU Falls in The Pit 86-77

It appears even the BYU Fightin' Fredette's are prone to emotional letdowns.

Riding high after their defeat of San Diego State Thursday night, the Cougars got avalanched and swarmed by media, heaping accolades on the Cougars (but mostly on Jimmer).  Today, just 48 hours later, BYU got dropped by New Mexico in an absolute classic trap game.

It's actually a worse loss than it sounds.  Yes, The Pit is a historically difficult place to play, but New Mexico really isn't very good this year.  They are a long shot for the NIT barring a turn around (and tonight's win is a decent jump start) and have virtually no chance of earning an at-large tourney bid. To make matters worse, San Diego State went into The Pit two weeks ago and emerged unscathed.

Jimmer is still the clubhouse leader for the Naismith Award, and even in a losing effort the nation's scorer didn't disappoint, dropping in 32 points on a respectable 12 of 26 shooting.  However any talk of BYU earninga #1 seed is effectively finished with today's loss, and even a #2 seems hopefully optimistic.

Up next for the Jimmer's is a trip to Wyoming followed by next weekend's visit from UNLV in a huge game for the Runnin' Rebs NCAA hopes.

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Big Results in the Big Twelve

Nebraska wanted to make sure everyone knew they planned on contending for an NCAA Tournament bid.  Beating Texas A&M today 57-48 should accomplish that mission pretty well.

With the win, the Huskers move to 15-5 (3-3), while Texas A&M fell to 17-3 (4-2).  Nebraska is still perched on the wrong side of the bubble, but are certainly in the mix with Texas A&M, Baylor, Oklahoma State, Kansas State and Colorado - all jostling for position in the middle of the Big Twelve pack.  Depending on how things unfold anywhere from two to four of those teams could find themselves dancing in March.

My gut feel, based on the lack of many compelling mid-major cases building and the strong argument for the Big Twelve as the best conference in the country, I think the conference earns six bids, meaning three of the above likely get the nod.

Dunn's 26 powered Baylor over Colorado.

Baylor certainly hopes and expectto be one of them.  Following last season's Elite Eight run, expectations were high for Scott Drew and the Baylor Bears.  Tweety Carter and Ekpe Udoh are gone, but LaceDariuis Dunn and a fantastic freshman class were in place to continue the Bears' resurgence.  Today's 70-66 victory over Colorado strengthens their case considerably, as well as dealing a tough blow to one of their fellow bubble mates.

Baylor moves to 14-6 (4-3) with the win, while Colorado falls to 14-8 (3-4) with the loss.  Baylor is likely in solid shape for the Tourney, provided they can avoid any more bad losses like last weeks 72-59 loss to Iowa State.  Colorado's path is going to be a lot tougher.  Not only are they likely currently last on the above list of Big Twelve tourney hopefuls, they also are entering a brutal schedule stretch.  After Tuesday's visit from Iowa State the Buffaloes face: @Missouri, Texas A&M, Kansas State, @Kansas.  Anything less than 3-2 over that stretch likely spells the end of Colorado's tourney hopes.

** Tonight's marquee match-up at 9PM: Texas @ Missouri (ESPN2) **


MANIAC'S TOURNEY PROJECTIONS - BIG TWELVE:


LOCKS - Texas, Kansas, Missouri
SHOULD BE IN - Texas A&M, Baylor
POSSIBLE - Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Colorado (I like K-St getting in over the other three who will land softly in the NIT)


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Kemba Unable to "Jimmer" the Cardinals; UConn Loses at Home in Double OT

Kemba Walker had chances to beat Louisville at the buzzer in both regulation and the second overtime.  Both times, like his likely Player of the Year chances, he came up just a little short.

Walker struggled to get clean looks at the bucket most of the afternoon and finished with a respectable, but not impressive, twenty points.  UConn's problem wasn't just that Walker was struggling - it was that even though struggling the offense was nearly 100% on his shoulders.  Walker shot just 7 of 24 from the field, including a dismal 2 of 10 from three point range.

This isn't an article to gloat (though I have written multiple times more than a month ago that this was the inevitable destiny for the Huskies unless they develop another offensive option...), simply to point out that the Big East is completely and bizarrely random this season.  Anyone who thinks they can predict the final standings of this league, feel free to speak up...

Pitino's Cards are once again lookin' good.

Louisville moves into second place in the BEast with the road win over #5 UConn.  For much of the season writers, pollsters, and yours truly doubted the veracity of the Cards record - waiting for the plummet once the competition heated up.  It turns out Preston Knowles, Peyton Siva and Rick Pitino are instead up to the normal Louisville standard and are not just an NCAA Tourney lock, they are right in the mix for a Top 4 seed.

The same can be said for about half of the Big East.  Georgetown picked up a HUGE road win today at Villanova (and hosts Louisville Monday night!), and Marquette has a double digit lead on Syracuse early in the second half.

It is truly anybody's conference to win and luckily for us hoops fans, it is going to be an absolutely thrilling and frenetic final five weeks of conference play.

UP NEXT:

LOUISVILLE:   @Georgetown, DePaul, @Notre Dame, Syracuse

UCONN:  Syracuse, @Seton Hall, @St John's, Providence

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