Two mid major darlings took major shots across the bow last night, dropping conference games to sub-.500 opponents by double digits.
For Siena, the loss came at traditional rival Niagara. It drops the Saints to 13-1 in league and doesn't necessarily eliminate them from at large consideration should they need it. It does however put a little more stress on the Bracket Buster game with Butler.
In the Ivy, things got real interesting with Cornell's stunning loss to 4-19 Penn. Many had their upcoming game with Princeton circled as one of intrigue. Now they might want to circle it, star it, highlight it - it's even bigger now. Consider this, if Princeton clips the Red they would open a two game conference lead and own the tie breaker. With no conference tourney, Princeton would likely earn the league's auto bid. Would Cornell, whose RPI would likely climb well above 100 with two conference losses really merit an at-large bid? It will be a debateable case to say the least and an intereting barometer of the true impact of RPI rankings.
Of course, beat Princeton and win out and it is all moot. In my opinion, it's the only way the Red are dancing this March.
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
Big East Bubble Talk
Here's a quick outlook on what it is going to take to get in for the Big East's crowded bubble.
Pitt (18-6, 7-4): It is probably disingenuous to place Pitt on the "bubble" list. They are not on the bubble. But they could be soon.
I place them here simply to illustrate they are not quite a 100% lock yet. Their non-conference play gives them a win over Wichita State balanced by a loss to Indiana. So basically their non-conference is every bit as barren as Louisville and Notre Dame's ballyhooed blank slates. Their next four games are: WVU, @Marquette, Villanova, @ Notre Dame. It isn't unfathomable they lose all four of those games. IF they do, they are on a precarious bubble. The should win the two final games hosting Providence and Rutgers. I'm not suggesting they won't; just saying they might need to.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 80%
Louisville (15-9, 6-5): Can you say BRUTAL? That's the only word to describe tonight's double digit loss to St. John's. They sport losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte (both at home). Their best non-conference win is Arkansas back when they had eight players in November (they also have losses to UNLV and Kentucky).
Down the stretch, with the exception of DePaul their other six games provide opportunities for quality wins; Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and UConn. The god news is they get the first three in Freedom Hall. The bad news? What about the Cards effort tonight says they can win any of those big games? Especially when they likely need to win three of those six (an of course DePaul).
.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 50%
Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6): Same story as the first three, terrible non-conference with NO quality wins and two losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount. Their final six games are: ST. John's, @Louisville, @Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, @Marquette.
On the bright side Brian Kelley will unveil his inagural squad at Spring Practice in just a few weeks..
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 10%
Marquette (15-8, 6-5): I find Marquette to be the most interesting case in the board. They are a few buckets away from being in the lock category. That said, their RPI is in the 60's and they have some significant work to get in the Dance. I think they have a good shot. They finish with: USF, Louisville, Pitt and ND at home, and trips to Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall. None of those seven are gimmes, none are impossible, or even unlikely. I think they go 4-3 down the stretch, get to 10-8 and ride non-conference wins over Xavier and Michigan (who was playing well at the time), as well as the positive sentiment of losses by TWO OR LESS to: Villanova TWICE, Florida State, and West Virginia to a solid #10 seed.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 60%
South Florida (15-8, 5-6): Who'da thunk we'd have them on the list ahead of UConn?? It's an uphill battle for the Bulls, but they have a real shot. Once Gilchrist comes back, he and Dominique Jones give them a 1-2 punch better than any team in the league outside of the Big Four. They close with home games against St John's, Cincinnati, Providence and UConn. They travel to Marquette, Villanova and DePaul. Realistically, if they win three of four at home, and just beat DePaul on the road they get to .500 in conference. They will have a road win over Georgetown (something Villanova and Duke looked pathetic attempting) as well as anon-conference win over Virginia.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 40%
In all probability they need to either sweep the four home games, or steal a win at Nova or Marquette to feel safe, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility. This team is honestly in the mix for most talented team on this entire list. No joke.
Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6): What happened here? The tourney seemed a lock after finishing non-conference play with a should-have-won against Gonzaga to go with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland and a thrilling win over UConn to open conference play... it looked so promising.
Now? It looks really, really bad. The Bearcats have a tough road to sled, as they close with: @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown. Ouch. That looks like three losses to me. That makes them no better than .500 in league play and gives them 12 losses overall. Before that stretch they still head to UConn and to South Florida.
It looks like kNITting, and probably the classifieds for Mick Cronin.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: .0004%
Connecticut (14-10, 4-7): Oh how different thing look if only they scraped out that win at Syracuse last night. Too bad the committee doesn't look at almosts, nor do they look at dubious officiating. They look at W's and L's. And the Huskies have a lot of L's. Even the win over Texas seems to devalue with each game the Longhorns play.
As the Longhorns fade, the Huskies become an increasing long-shot. Their out-of-league play gives them the nod over this entire list if they are all even in Big East play. But at 4-7, they really need to go at least 5-2 to have a prayer heading into MSG and the conference tourney.
Here's the final seven: Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU -- Road: Villanova, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida.
Wouldn't it be a hoot if they are both at .500 shouting range going into the final game at the Sun Dome in Tampa??
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 25%
The good news, these teams ALL play each other a ton the final three weeks. I think the Big East gets seven bids in the end. Give me Pitt, Marquette and South Florida in a stunner (though if it is six, USF just misses). Louisville is the first out, followed by UConn and Notre Dame. Cincinnati limps pathetically home in eleventh place (or worse...Seton Hall, St. John's anyone??)
Pitt (18-6, 7-4): It is probably disingenuous to place Pitt on the "bubble" list. They are not on the bubble. But they could be soon.
I place them here simply to illustrate they are not quite a 100% lock yet. Their non-conference play gives them a win over Wichita State balanced by a loss to Indiana. So basically their non-conference is every bit as barren as Louisville and Notre Dame's ballyhooed blank slates. Their next four games are: WVU, @Marquette, Villanova, @ Notre Dame. It isn't unfathomable they lose all four of those games. IF they do, they are on a precarious bubble. The should win the two final games hosting Providence and Rutgers. I'm not suggesting they won't; just saying they might need to.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 80%
Louisville (15-9, 6-5): Can you say BRUTAL? That's the only word to describe tonight's double digit loss to St. John's. They sport losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte (both at home). Their best non-conference win is Arkansas back when they had eight players in November (they also have losses to UNLV and Kentucky).
Down the stretch, with the exception of DePaul their other six games provide opportunities for quality wins; Syracuse twice, Notre Dame, Georgetown, Marquette and UConn. The god news is they get the first three in Freedom Hall. The bad news? What about the Cards effort tonight says they can win any of those big games? Especially when they likely need to win three of those six (an of course DePaul).
.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 50%
Notre Dame (17-8, 6-6): Same story as the first three, terrible non-conference with NO quality wins and two losses to Northwestern and Loyola Marymount. Their final six games are: ST. John's, @Louisville, @Georgetown, Pitt, UConn, @Marquette.
On the bright side Brian Kelley will unveil his inagural squad at Spring Practice in just a few weeks..
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 10%
Marquette (15-8, 6-5): I find Marquette to be the most interesting case in the board. They are a few buckets away from being in the lock category. That said, their RPI is in the 60's and they have some significant work to get in the Dance. I think they have a good shot. They finish with: USF, Louisville, Pitt and ND at home, and trips to Cincy, St. John's and Seton Hall. None of those seven are gimmes, none are impossible, or even unlikely. I think they go 4-3 down the stretch, get to 10-8 and ride non-conference wins over Xavier and Michigan (who was playing well at the time), as well as the positive sentiment of losses by TWO OR LESS to: Villanova TWICE, Florida State, and West Virginia to a solid #10 seed.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 60%
South Florida (15-8, 5-6): Who'da thunk we'd have them on the list ahead of UConn?? It's an uphill battle for the Bulls, but they have a real shot. Once Gilchrist comes back, he and Dominique Jones give them a 1-2 punch better than any team in the league outside of the Big Four. They close with home games against St John's, Cincinnati, Providence and UConn. They travel to Marquette, Villanova and DePaul. Realistically, if they win three of four at home, and just beat DePaul on the road they get to .500 in conference. They will have a road win over Georgetown (something Villanova and Duke looked pathetic attempting) as well as anon-conference win over Virginia.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 40%
In all probability they need to either sweep the four home games, or steal a win at Nova or Marquette to feel safe, but I wouldn't put it out of the realm of possibility. This team is honestly in the mix for most talented team on this entire list. No joke.
Cincinnati (14-9, 5-6): What happened here? The tourney seemed a lock after finishing non-conference play with a should-have-won against Gonzaga to go with wins over Vanderbilt and Maryland and a thrilling win over UConn to open conference play... it looked so promising.
Now? It looks really, really bad. The Bearcats have a tough road to sled, as they close with: @WVU, Villanova, @Georgetown. Ouch. That looks like three losses to me. That makes them no better than .500 in league play and gives them 12 losses overall. Before that stretch they still head to UConn and to South Florida.
It looks like kNITting, and probably the classifieds for Mick Cronin.
Maniac's Tourney Odds: .0004%
Connecticut (14-10, 4-7): Oh how different thing look if only they scraped out that win at Syracuse last night. Too bad the committee doesn't look at almosts, nor do they look at dubious officiating. They look at W's and L's. And the Huskies have a lot of L's. Even the win over Texas seems to devalue with each game the Longhorns play.
As the Longhorns fade, the Huskies become an increasing long-shot. Their out-of-league play gives them the nod over this entire list if they are all even in Big East play. But at 4-7, they really need to go at least 5-2 to have a prayer heading into MSG and the conference tourney.
Here's the final seven: Home: Cincinnati, Louisville, WVU -- Road: Villanova, Rutgers, Notre Dame, South Florida.
Wouldn't it be a hoot if they are both at .500 shouting range going into the final game at the Sun Dome in Tampa??
Maniac's Tourney Odds: 25%
The good news, these teams ALL play each other a ton the final three weeks. I think the Big East gets seven bids in the end. Give me Pitt, Marquette and South Florida in a stunner (though if it is six, USF just misses). Louisville is the first out, followed by UConn and Notre Dame. Cincinnati limps pathetically home in eleventh place (or worse...Seton Hall, St. John's anyone??)
Someone's MISSing the Tourney
Not only is it an underrated and fierce rivalry, tonight in Starkville we might be watching a virtual elimination game when Ole Miss travels to Mississippi State. With the middling play in the SEC West (and odd emergence of Arkansas) it is looking more and more likely that only one team from that half of the conference is going to the Big Dance.
Ole Miss's resume pre-conference is stronger; Mississippi State has already beaten the Rebels on their home floor. If Ole Miss can't return the favor tonight, they likely find themselves on precarious bubble footing.
On the left coast, if you still have any patience or remote interest at all in Pac10 basketball, you'll get a rare opportunity to watch the best they have to offer tonight on ESPN. East coast bias? Heck, they even bumped them up to 9EST for us Easterner's convenience. Say "thank you ESPN."
Cal (15-8) and Washington (16-7) both entered the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country. Not to state the obvious, but both have dissapointed immensely. Washington's non-conference profile isn't quite as brutal as the general Pac10 perception (losses to Tx Tech & G'Town, wins over Portland and Texas A&M). Cal's isn't terrible either (losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and Kansas, wins over Iowa State and Murray State...ok, not very good resume...). To be honest, all derision aside, Cal is likely an at-large team if the tourney was tomorrow and Washington really isn't so far gone to at least be in the discussion.
Both have played better of late, and IF the Pac10 were to sneak in two teams, Washington would have to run the table from here on out. The problem? They can't win on the road. As in, CAN'T WIN on the road. They are 0-4 in conference play and did not win (or even attempt to more than once!) a single non-conference game away from home either.
Tonight's game is at Cal...
Ole Miss's resume pre-conference is stronger; Mississippi State has already beaten the Rebels on their home floor. If Ole Miss can't return the favor tonight, they likely find themselves on precarious bubble footing.
On the left coast, if you still have any patience or remote interest at all in Pac10 basketball, you'll get a rare opportunity to watch the best they have to offer tonight on ESPN. East coast bias? Heck, they even bumped them up to 9EST for us Easterner's convenience. Say "thank you ESPN."
Cal (15-8) and Washington (16-7) both entered the season ranked in the Top 15 in the country. Not to state the obvious, but both have dissapointed immensely. Washington's non-conference profile isn't quite as brutal as the general Pac10 perception (losses to Tx Tech & G'Town, wins over Portland and Texas A&M). Cal's isn't terrible either (losses to Ohio State, Syracuse, New Mexico and Kansas, wins over Iowa State and Murray State...ok, not very good resume...). To be honest, all derision aside, Cal is likely an at-large team if the tourney was tomorrow and Washington really isn't so far gone to at least be in the discussion.
Both have played better of late, and IF the Pac10 were to sneak in two teams, Washington would have to run the table from here on out. The problem? They can't win on the road. As in, CAN'T WIN on the road. They are 0-4 in conference play and did not win (or even attempt to more than once!) a single non-conference game away from home either.
Tonight's game is at Cal...
MANIAC'S PICKS:
Ole Miss +5
Cal -5
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Orange Crush
One down, two more on deck.
Syracuse is on a bubble-busting tour through the Big East middlings that continues tonight when the struggling UConn Huskies come to town. Rivalry week? I suppose, but this ain't your six-OT Huskies and Cuse squads of last year.
UConn finds themselves in a situation very similar to Cincinnati last weekend and nearly identical to the one Louisville hosts this weekend. On the outside looking in, looking for a marquee win to vault them up and in the NCAA tournament.
Syracuse crushed Cincinnati's upset bid early and thoroughly. They get two more chances to crush another team on The Boeheim (our old term for "bubble" named in honor of the often apopleptic NIT invitee) tonight.
Maniac's Pick: UConn +11.5
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
Syracuse is on a bubble-busting tour through the Big East middlings that continues tonight when the struggling UConn Huskies come to town. Rivalry week? I suppose, but this ain't your six-OT Huskies and Cuse squads of last year.
UConn finds themselves in a situation very similar to Cincinnati last weekend and nearly identical to the one Louisville hosts this weekend. On the outside looking in, looking for a marquee win to vault them up and in the NCAA tournament.
Syracuse crushed Cincinnati's upset bid early and thoroughly. They get two more chances to crush another team on The Boeheim (our old term for "bubble" named in honor of the often apopleptic NIT invitee) tonight.
Maniac's Pick: UConn +11.5
- Posted using BlogPress from my iPhone
If the RPI Doesn't Lie...
then here is an interesting perspective on a few teams and their respective tourney prospects and seeding.
Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
Regardless of your opinion on the the RPI rankings, it is part of the formula and logic employed by the committee come Selection Sunday. While many factors of the RPI are beyond a team's control; for example Cornell has fallen from 25th to 49th over the past two weeks due to their weakening schedule strength as they wade through Ivy League play. Nevermind the fact they are treating their league foes like the UConn Women, the RPI still drops. However, many factors are controlable, a reality not lost among saavy mid-major schedulers.
Of course it helps if your league goes out and picks up some marquee wins in the pre-conference season. The A-10 currently has six teams in the RPI's Top 50, four of them in the Top 30. Wins over teams like Villanova, Cincinnati, Florida, Louisville, Old Dominion, VCU, Georgia Tech, Missouri and Mississippi State do wonders to raise the league's overall profile. Then, once the in-league attrition begins, as long as your top teams lose only to each other, very little damage is done.
Compare this conversely with what has occurred in the Pac-10. Their pre-conference struggles were well publicized. It is reflected in the RPI. Cal is the first to appear at 26th. Washington is next at 55th, behind teams like William & Mary, Northeastern and San Diego State. Is there any wonder the A-10 is talking six bids while out west they are hoping someone other than Cal wins the tourney so they might get two?
Here's a few RPI's worth noting as we enter the final month stretch run:
RPI's that Help:
Northern Iowa (13th): Most people have the Panthers projected between a 7-9 seed. Their RPI seems to suggest otherwise. The precedent is there too; several years ago the committee awarded a two-loss Drake team a #5, despite playing a lesser schedule than No. Iowa this season.
New Mexico (10th): Think Steve Alford's Lobos have a BIG game with UNLV this week? If New Mex was to win out (unlikely) you could be looking at an unprecedentedly high seed for the Mountain West; as high as a #2. Realistically the Lobos will lose a game or two, but can still expect to fall in the top four seed lines in March.
Rhode Island (13th): I think this one is a little bit of fool's gold, buoyed slightly by their scant loss total (just three) and the strength of the A-10. They have a gang of "OK" wins, but lack the Top 25 headliner needed to crack to Top 4 seed lines. They host Richmond tomorrow night, and still have a trip to Temple to make. Their best wins are Boston College, Northeastern, Oklahoma State and Dayton. It is unlikely to expect the Rams any higher than a seven or eight unless they win out.
Richmond (30th): Staying in the A-10, many pundits have Richmond on the bubble. I say look at their quality wins and RPI. This team is a lock barring a late collapse. They have wins over Florida, Temple, Old Dominion, Missouri and Mississippi State. Their losses are ALL road losses: Wake Forest, William & Mary, VCU, South Carolina and two in conference. Their closing schedule is tough; they still have trips to URI, Xavier and Charlotte, but the Spiders are in position where they can lose two of three and still get in the Dance.
Texas Tech (32nd): This is an interesting one, as no one has the Red Raiders even on the bubble. Most have them eight or ninth in a six-bid max Big 12. So how are they so high? It would be a nearly unprecedented anomaly for a team from a power conference with an RPI of 32 to NOT recieve a bid, but Tech is a good illustration of the most significant flaw of the RPI system. They have a good record against the RPI Top 50-100 (3-0) and even better against RPI 100-200 (7-0). The problem? They are 1-7 against the Top 50, with nary a quality win outside of UTEP, Washington and Oklahoma State. Oddly enough, if Washington can get rolling and UTEP stays hot, it will be hard to exclude Tech IF (and a huge IF here, they are currently 3-5) they can get to .500 in Big 12 play.
Siena (31st): The Saints are 14-0 in MEAC play. With an RPI at 31, many a team on the bubble will be rooting for them in the MEAC Tourney. They are dancing either way. If they fall in the MEAC, they are taking one of the big boys off the bubble with them.
Wichita State (37th): The Shockers strong RPI make it possible for the Valley to sneak two teams into the Dance, but they better not leave too much to chance by leaving any more wins on the table. It really depends on how many bubble busters occur in conference tournaments, provided the Shockers can't capture their own.
RPI's that Hurt:
Virginia (94th): The Cavs better win 11 in ACC play (possible, they are 5-3) otherwise the early losses and brutal RPI keep them on the sidelines come tourney time. None of this diminishes the job Tony Bennett is doing in Charlottesville though.
Mississippi St (70th): The SEC in general isn't getting a lot of help from the RPI. It isn't as bad as last year, but the message remains the same - if you want six or seven bids you are going to have to beat people outside of your conference. I'm not sure Mississippi State can rebound enough to make the tourney, with the SEC West so devoid of opportunities for quality wins. They better knock of Kentucky when the Cats come to Starkville.
Notre Dame (61st): Remember the column about the pathetic scheduling efforts of the Irish this year? THIS is when it comes back to bite you in the ass. With no quality wins to seperate themselves, they are forced to not just stay even with Cincinnati, UConn and Marquette; they have to finish clearly ahead of them. That might be asking a bit too much this season.
Tulsa (62nd): An RPI of 62 pretty much sinks your at-large chances, particularly when two teams from your mid-major league (UAB, UTEP) are making strong claims for bids. The Golden Hurricane get a chance to make their RPI moot with a trip to Cameron Indoor later this month.
RPI's that Really Don't Matter:
Ohio State (37th): The RPI could care less about Evan Turner's back... but the Committee will. Finish with 11 or 12 wins in the Big Ten and the Bucks will earn a Top 4 seed.
Illinois (72nd): RPI can't measure what a win in the Kohl Center is worth. The committee can. At 9-3 in Big Ten play, barring a collapse the Illini are going to the Dance. Add in wins over Clemson and Vandy, and factor in that all four non-conference losses were to Top 100 teams and by three or less points. Throw the RPI completely out the window for Illinois, they are dancing.
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