Three Picks for November 27th

What an interesting weekend in college hoops.  Both Connecticut and Florida State get dropped by unranked non-BCS opponents; UCF and Harvard respectively, and then last night everybody's #1 (except marchmanics) North Carlina gets ambushed by UNLV out in the desert.

It takes a little of the shine off North Carolina's upcoming gauntlet week of Wisconsin and Kentucky, but it certainly doesn't make either matchup any less compelling.  Wisconsin's ability to defend and control tempo with Jordan Taylor quarterbacking is going to make for a fascinating ballgame Wednesday night...

While we wait for a week that is loaded with Final Four caliber matchups (don't forget Duke v Ohio State Tuesday night), let's continue to push forward on the Maniac's 8-3 start against the spread in 2011 with three more picks.

Butler @ Indiana -13

Vegas is smart.  Really smart.  Despite the Maniac's consistent ability to get the better of them, there is no denying that the handicapping prowess and ability to unbiasedly asses teams and match-ups is staggering.  That is all you need to know about how much better this Indiana team is than most people realize.  Butler is down this season, but they aren't awful.  IU has finished below .500 since Tom Crean's arrival in 2008.  This is the season they finally get the postseason berth.  The only question is whether it is the NCAA or NIT.

My wager is the Big Dance.  A solid win tonight will go a long way to building their resume, as despite the unblemished record, there is very little to brag about win-wise thus far.  This will be a nice quality win for the Big Board come Selection Sunday.

That said; -13 is a lot of points for a team that hasn't tasted the sweet nectar of big wins too often lately.  I think the Hoosiers remain perfect tonight, but find it hard to believe it will be as easy as a -13 line suggests.

Maniac's Pick:  Butler +13

Oklahoma vs. St. Louis -4.5

The Maniac has looked pretty smart thus far since going way, way out on a limb and throwing Rick Majerius's Billlikens at #16 if the first installment of Bracketeering.  Tonight, they validate my faith.  Oklahoma is improved, but still not an upper tier Big 12 team in 2012.  St. Louis on the other hand has the makings of an NCAA Tournament team.

St. Louis is an excellent perimeter shooting team, and much like Duke stylistically, is unafraid to let them fly in transition or as a component of the secondary break.  They routed Villanova two days ago on the strength of 14 of 27 shooting from behind the arc.  If they get a similar shooting performance today, expect a similarly easy victory.

Maniac's Pick:  St. Louis Billikens -4.5

Virginia Commonwealth @ Alabama -15

Wow, this line is huge.  That tells me Vegas is well aware that Alabama might be more of a top ten caliber team than the writers and pundits thought several weeks ago.  It also tells me that they are smart enough to realize that three brilliant weeks in March last season does not a powerhouse program make.  There is a wide discrepancy in talent between these two ballclubs.

However, sometimes familiarity breeds comfort and success.  I think VCU has an interesting edge tonight facing former coach Anthony Grant, who led the Rams to some success before leaving for Alabama and handing the reigns to Shaka Smart.  The familiarity level should have helped the Rams prepare for the frenzied defensive pressure the Crimson Tide employs.

It won't make them athletic enough to handle 'Bama on the boards, but should help them control the tempo enough to keep things respectable.

I like VCU to hang around and cover narrowly.

Maniac's Pick:  Virginia Commonwealth +15

Four Things We Learned About Duke in Maui

You might have heard once or four hundred times during the ESPN broadcast that Duke has never lost in Maui.  It is certainly an interesting (and impressive) fact, but here are four real things we learned about the Dukies over the past week.




1.  Ryan Kelly reads March Maniacs. 

Shortly after posting our first Bracketeering column of the year and citing Kelly as the main reason I elevated the Blue Devils to #3, Kelly goes out and wins the MVP of the Maui Classic.  So, thanks Ryan.  We appreciate the good lookin' out for the Maniac's analystic prowess.

2.  Duke Recruits Winners.  Lots of 'em

Austin Rivers sat the final two minutes, in a tight ballgame, and unlikely hero Tyler Thornton came up clutch.  

 This tells us, no, not that Duke is better with Rivers on the bench, but that this Duke team is a cohesive enough unit that they can get immense, headline-grabbing contributions from seven players on their roster.  This is a key ingredient of most championship teams.  Even the seeming "one-man shows" of Kemba Walker and Carmelo Anthony got huge contributions from Jeremy Lamb and Gerry McNamara.  You've gotta share the load over the course of a season.  Duke has passed that test far earlier and far easier than most talent-laden squads.


3.  Forget 1,000, Coach K is going to win 1,100 games; at least.

One more championship?  Okay ... I'm in

Did you see the youthful ebulience that bubbled over throughout K's post game interview?  It was simply joyous.  He looked almost teary eyed he was so overjoyed and excited.  The coolest thing about it?  He wasn't excited about the win; he was excited for Tyler Thorton getting a moment in the spotlight, one he said he deserved because he was just such an amazing kid.

Does this sound like a coach anywhere close to retiring?!?  In fact, I'll say confidently there is not a coach in the nation more comfortably and enjoyably pulling as much from his players and the joyful experience of college basketball as Mike Krzyzewski.

4.  Austin Rivers is going to be a great teammate and a big-time winner at Duke.

Peace and Love with the Dukies in Maui

The most impressive thing from this entire weekend was watching the way an engaged and excited Austin Rivers cheered on his Duke teammates and celebrated wildly when they won the championship, despite spending the last two minutes on the bench.  Suffice it to say this was the first time in young Austin Rivers' life when he was riding the pine in crunch time.  Most 18-year old phenoms would sulk.  Or at least look visibly uncomfortable.  Not Rivers.  He took it in stride, with class, and with complete team-first joy in the victory.

This is an enormous step in the evolution of a young superstar, and an enormous building block in the foundation of a potential Final Four squad.  Hi shot selection may at times still leave a little to be desired, but from here on in we will not be questioning his team focus.