Michigan State is a Disappointment - But Should it be THAT Shocking?

There is no question that 13-9 and on the outside of the bubble is an unusual and disappointing predicament for Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  He, and they, afterall, are one of the premier templates for consistent excellence in college basketball.

But should their less than stellar play be as big of a shock as it is being received as?

Here is an alternative viewpoint to consider.  Last year Michigan State entered the NCAA tournament at a solid 24-8, but only a 5th seed.  To place it in a different context, that would have them somewhere between the 17th and 20th best team in the country.

State's road through the NCAA Tourney was equally precarious.  In the first round, they barely dodged a big upset, slipping past #12 seed New Mexico State 70-67.  In the second round, an even more daring escape, when a desperate buzzer-beating three by Korie Lucious found the bottom of the net.  The shot was intentional, but Lucious receiving the ball certainly wasn't - a freak deflection/pass landed his way and Korie, to his credit seized the spotlight.  The Spartans won 85-83 and survived and advanced.

If this shot doesn't fall...

Korie Lucious has since been permanently dismissed from the team for an unspecified third violation of team conduct.

The Sweet Sixteen got even sweeter for the Spartans when Northern Iowa stunned top team in the country Kansas, knocking the biggest obstacle in that half of the bracket to the wayside.  Sparty took advantage of their good fortune by beating the upstart Panthers 59-52.

The Elite Eight?  Well, maybe "elite" is too grand a term in this instance.  After the bottom half of the bracket fell apart as well with Ohio State and Evan Turner and Georgetown bowing out, suddenly the "best region ever" looked a lot less daunting.  Sixth seeded Tennessee advanced to meet Michigan State with a trip to Indy on the line.  Again, more heart-palpitating last second moments smiled the way of Sparty, as they advanced with 70-69 win.

Next stop, the Final Four. In a game that set big time college basketball back to the pre-shot clock era, the Spartans finally bowed out 52-50 to Butler.

Suppose for a second that either of those first round games broke the other way with a different last-second moment of good fortune?  Would Michigan State have entered this season in the Top 5?  Top 10 even?

This season is no doubt been a disappointment.  It's just that perhaps some of the disappointment should also be shared by those of us in the prognostication business as well...

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Quick Rundown of a few of the Night's Biggest Wins

Bubble talk usually focuses more on the disappointing aspect rather than the optimistic; meaning it's usually only the "bubble" if a team has under achieved.  However, the bubble goes both ways, so here's a quick rundown of some teams that helped the NCAA chances with good wins this week.

Some of you have politely pointed out that the Maniac is a moron and that Southern Miss isn't any good and that Conference USA isn't getting multiple bids into the tourney.  Those of you (and you know who you are!) who have been so kind as to email your, um, "concerns" might be right on #1 and #3, but not the middle morsel of information.  Southern Miss is a good ballclub.  And tonight they earned what might turn out to be a season-saving win, knocking off UAB in Birmingham 75-71. 

The win moves Southern Miss to 17-5 (6-3) and a half-game ahead of UAB, Memphis and UTEP atop the conference standings.  If the NCAA had truly sold out for the monster payday and expanded the tourney to 96, no doubt all four of these teams would be dancing.  However, at the current 68 it is going to be a close call down the stretch for all four.  A win on the road over one of your prime competitors is enormous.

The Maniac continues to stand on an island regarding the Golden Eagles and their tourney merit.  Not one single major media outlet, ESPN, FOx Sports, CBS, Yahoo - have included them in a single mock bracket all season.  I'm sure I'll get a few wrong, but when they DO earn their at-large bid, feel free to Tweet of my incomparable hoops genius...

In the Maniac's bracket, I have both Southern Miss AND UAB in, with Memphis being in the first four out.  UTEP probably has the longest odds, despite having an identical record to Memphis and UAB, because of their lack of any significant non-conference wins.

In the Atlantic 10 the Maniac's second pet team for 2011, the Duquesne Dukes kept doing what they have all season -  absolutely obliterate conference opponents.  This time the victim was George Washington by an 84-59 tally.  With Xavier's surprising loss at Charlotte, Duquesne moves into sole possession of the conference lead at a perfect 8-0.

In the ACC, two of the teams we thought would be good, then looked bad early so we wrote off as lousy, are actually pretty good again.  Make sense?

Virginia Tech continued their profile rehab, winning 77-69 at NC State.  The win lifted the Hokies to 15-6 (5-3).  Their non-conference losses to Kansas State, UNLV and Purdue do little to damage their overall resume.  If they can scrape back to 11-5 or even 10-6, they should have little to be nervous about on Selection Sunday.

Meanwhile North Carolina handled their business last night on the road at Boston College, winning easily and very impressively, 106-74, to run their league record to a tidy 6-1.  That's good for a first place tie with the much heralded Dukies (Duke moved a half-game back in front with tonight's win over Maryland).

Harrison Barnes had a season-high 26 points and is showing glimpses of being the player everyone expected him to be instantly.  Instead, his matuaration process has taken some time to evolve; and is still evolving, but as his play continues to improve Carolina is growing into a multi-dimensional team with a ton of length and talent. 

In our latest Bracketeering we have the Tarheels projecting to the #4 line - not too far off of where long-forgotten lofty expectations were prior to the season...


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Trouble Bubblin'? Michigan State Among Teams on the Slide

It's February, so all college hoops fans know the word de juor from here on out - that of course being the dreaded "bubble."  Nearly every conference is about at the halfway point and most teams across the country are gearing up for that all important (though the committee claims it officially doesn't matter...) ten game stretch run to the end of the season.

Should have set a wake-up call

In our first bubble update, we're going to focus on some teams who are sliding the wrong way.  There were more than a few of them tonight.

Baylor had a weird circumstance today, as their game was moved up to an early afternoon tip-off due to last night's contest in Norman being postponed by bad weather.  Perhaps someone should have told the Bears to get up a little early... They looked horribly flat and took a potentially devastating loss, 73-66 to Oklahoma.  The loss dropped Baylor to 14-7 (4-4).

It's odd to see Memphis lose a game in Conference USA.  It's really odd to see them suffer their second straight loss, on their home floor, to another opponent with no chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team.  But that's exactly what happened tonight.  The Tigers stole the ball with eight seconds to play and had two attempts at an overtime-forcing three, but when the second attempt clanged off the rim Tulsa escaped with a 68-65 win.  Memphis falls to 16-6 (5-3) and in some real danger of missing the tourney for a second straight year.

Kudos to Tom Crean and his suddenly competitive Hoosiers.  However, bad news for Minnesota who finds themselves back on the familiar bubble after dropping a should-win, even on the road, to IU.  Tubby's Gophers are still ranked in the Top 25, but at 16-6, and 5-5 in the Big Ten with upcoming games against Ohio State and Illinois, the Gophers are not on nearly as solid footing as one might think.

We feel your pain Tom...

Lastly, it's hard to even quantify the disaster that is coming to life to Tom Izzo and his Spartans.  Ranked in the Top 5 in the nation early in the season, things might have hit rock bottom tonight with their twenty point blowout loss at lowly Iowa.  It is only the second conference win on the season for the Hawkeyes, who climb to 9-13 with the win.


Michigan State failed to do something that South Dakota State accomplished to start this season; win in Carver-Hawkeye Arena.  It's beyond panic time in East Lansing.  With the loss the Spartans fall to 13-9, (5-5).  More troubling than their record, which is given some leeway with the tremendous strength of schedule, is their recent play.  The Spartans are 2-5 over the last seven games, with losses to three of the four worst teams in the conference; Iowa, Michigan and Penn State, and one of their two wins an overtime escape against the other cellar-dweller, Indiana.

Any responsible bracket projection done today has to exclude the Spartans, as bizarre as that is to type.  With two of their next three games AT Wisconsin (where no one ever wins)  and @ Ohio State (who is #1 in the nation) it is all but last-call for Sparty and their nearly two-decade long run of tourney appearances.

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Doubting Duke?

If only not for the volumes of articles penned by yours truly outlining the possibilities of a Duke perfect season, I might be tempted to try and gloat and slip in a few "saw this one coming" or "tough matchup for the Dukies" - or some other blithe phrases to insinuate that I, or anyone, saw today's Dukie disaster brewing.

Truth be told, very few of us (and by "us" I mean us - college hoops die-hards and knowledgeable fans and media outlets) saw Duke's now-obvious significant flaws.

But perhaps we should have.

Everyone was so enamored with Duke and their seeming-invincibility as they continued to knock off ranked opponents with relative ease.  The Kyrie Irving injury was of course a disappointing hiccup, but by no means was seen as something to derail the Dukies in their quest to repeat as National Champs.  Take a look at their three marquee non-conference wins; Michigan State, Kansas State and Butler.

Quick - name the three most disappointing teams in the nation.  If you're pressed for time, you can simply answer "ditto."  All three were in the Top Ten (or at least Top 15) in every national publication.  Today, none of the three are ranked, and frankly they aren't even close.  Butler is 5-4 in the Horizon League and in danger of missing the tourney.  Same story for K-State and their eight losses, and today Michigan State needed OT to beat Indiana at home to pull their record to 13-8 (5-4).

If Duke came dressed as an unbeatable superpower, it is worth considering that they were playing teams that have aided more than a few less-than-stellar teams in donning the same disguise.  Today's pasting by St. John's highlighted the Devil's achilles heel; if their shots don't go down, the Devils will.  They hit a few late garbage-time shots from long range to pull their final three-point shooting numbers to five of 26, or 19%.  At one point the Devils were one for nineteen.  It's tough to beat your mom in a game of horse shooting one for nineteen, let alone go on the road and knock off a Big East foe.

For St. John's the win is enormous.  In the latest MarchManiacs.com Bracketeering (to be released Monday), the Johnnies were among the first four on the outside looking in.  Hammering Duke in the fashion they did today changes that.  They are in eleventh place in the Big East, and bizarrely; it isn't that big of a deal.

It's impossible to remove Marquette, Cincinnati or West Virginia based on current data, so they stay in.  Things are likely (um, more like definite) to get insane over the final four weeks, but as of tonight, I have Lavin and the Johnnies getting in, and a record-shattering eleven BEast teams punching dance tickets.

For the Devils, nothing too dire was lost today aside from some confidence and a bit of the aura of dominance.  They will still likely win the ACC and are in as good of shape as anyone else in the country aside from Ohio State for capturing a #1 seed.

It is, however a jarring wake-up call that this season, as if the weekend hadn't already taught us, is completely up for grabs as we roll towards Selection Sunday. Unless Kyrie Irving makes a rapid and remarkable recovery, there is no prohibitive favorite.  Thank goodness college hoops settles it on the court - the BCS computers would explode...

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Thriller in the Valley - Northern Iowa Returns the Favor

Last month it was Missouri State star Kyle Weems hitting the buzzer beater to give the Bears a one-point win at Northern Iowa.  Tonight, the Panthers returned the favor with two free throws with 5.2 seconds remaining to get the one-point win down in the Ozarks.

Weems nearly had his second game-winner.

Weems nearly served up an identical result when he hit a contested 18-foot baseline jumpshot to give the Bears the one-point lead with 18.2 on the clock.  However Northern Iowa's star Jake Koch, who had himself hit the go-ahead basket thirty seconds earlier, go a clean look from three.  The shot rimmed out, and Weems did a great job checking out a bigger man underneath, but it left 6'1'' Johnny Moran free to swoop in from the baseline corner to get a tip attempt.

Weems blocked the tip attempt, but committed the foul in the process.  Moran calmly stepped to the line and knocked home two clutch free throws that dramtically altered the future possibilities for the Panther's season.

Had Missouri State won the game, they would have moved to 10-1 in the MVC, three full games ahead of Northern Iowa.  Instead the Panthers pull even with Wichita State, with both now just one game behind Missouri State for the conference lead - and a near-certain NCAA at-large bid. 

In my projections the Valley is a two bid league, but without many marquee non-conference wins, it is very unlikely a three-bid league.  That makes tonight's dramatic win absolutely enormous for Northern Iowa and their chances to have once again conjure up some March Madness magic.  Fans in the Iowa plains are thrilled; Kansas Jayhawk fans perhaps not so much...

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