Welcome to a new feature on March Maniacs called "Moving Up & Moving Out". Each week we are going to take a look at the biggest movers in what is emerging as one of the most tumultuous seasons in recent memory. I still defy any expert or pundit to make sense of the ACC. I really don't think it is possible at this point.
Last week, in my now destroyed Bracketeering Projection, I argued the Top Three teams in the ACC are Duke, Georgia Tech and Clemson. I still think that is true, particularly after Maryland's loss to Clemson last night. I'm not as high on Florida State as some others are, and still project them in the NIT. I wasn't sold on Virginia, but the way they handed Carolina their backside on the home floor (again) seems to tell us something... though which team it tells us more about it debatable.
The ACC is a mess, and I wouldn't wager a dime on a single conference game the rest of the year my waging-minded friends. That said, here is a quick status check of the many ACC bubblemates.
Moving Up:
Clemson - notched a big win last night over Maryland to move to 4-4 in conference. Two of their losses are to 5-2 Duke, so winning the ACC is pretty much out of reach. However those two losses to the Dukies mean their remaining schedule allows them eight league games without facing their nemesis in Durham. By the end of the year, Clemson wins 10-11 games in league and makes the tournament wearing white jerseys in Round One.
Florida State - Yes, it was Boston College, but any road win in the ACC is a good win. It pulled the Seminoles to 4-3 in conference and leaves them squarely in the race.
Virginia - What to make of the Cavs? I still contend that unless they win 11 games in league they will have a tough time making the tourney because of the brutal non-conference losses they sustained. One could even argue that Virginia's success damages the league's hopes to earn six or seven bids as it devalues the percieved quality of the teams. All that said, they went into Chapel Hill and beat the hell out of Roy Williams' and his seemingly never-ending parade of McDonald's All-Americans and moved to 4-2 in league play.
Moving Out:
Miami (FL) - Yes, they finally got a conference win this weekend. However of the Hurricanes 16 wins, only SIX of them have come against teams in the RPI Top 200. Let me repeat that. TOP 200. Yuck.
Virginia Tech - And of you are team that loses to the aforementioned 'Canes, your stock has to drop a bit. Coming right on the heels of a good win in Charlottesville, it has to be a particularly deflating loss. It looks like yet another NIT stop for Seth Greenburg and the Hokies.
North Carolina - What to say about the Tarheels? This week they fall to 2-4 in league after getting decimated at home by Virginia. It is one thing to struggle on the road; most conferences do. It is quite another to be hammered at home in back to back games by Wake Forest and Virginia. I had the Tarheels as a #7 seed in my first bracket projection. It has nothing to do with the "name on the jersey", in fact I would argue the Tarheels were slightly undervalued for the exact same reason and heightened scruitiny.
It is getting
real hard to argue on Carolina's behalf at this point. Will they make the tourney? It seems hard to imagine they can't get that awesome collection of talent steadied, but it seems equally abysmal watching their last two home games. This week they have two road games; at VA Tech and at Maryland. They really need to win both to be on decent footing before the following week's visit from the Dukies.
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