Here's the first of ten conference installments of some New Year's Resolutions and Prognostications. As always, your dissension is welcomed...
BIG TEN:The Big Ten had all the makings of the best conference in the country heading into the season. Legit Final Four contenders? Purdue & Michigan State. National Player of the Year candidate? Evan Turner of Ohio State more than fit the bill. Tons of tourney caliber teams? Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State & Minnesota all were ranked preseason, with Wisconsin entering shortly after beating Duke early. Penn State was fresh off their NIT championship and Northwestern was entertaining dreams of their first ever NCAA tourney appearance. Heck, optimism was even high down in Bloomington with the rebuilding Hoosiers.
So what happened?
Michigan State got routed by North Carolina, Texas and lost to middling Florida. Ohio State lost Evan Turner to a broken back (amazing as it sounds, he will likely be back this season), Minnesota has struggled on the court and off, Michigan has been a disaster and Illinois has been disappointing. Penn State may not even be good enough to get back to the NIT to defend their crown and Indiana will need another year of rebuilding before being relevant.
In short, the Big Ten's shortfalls continue to glare compared to the bright lights of the Big East, ACC and Big 12 for yet another year.
Here's a quick look at the outlook for March for each team:
The Good:Purdue looks fantastic, and a legit contender to get to Indy. I can't see them any lower than a #2 or #3 seed come March, and I wouldn't bet against a #1 (the win over WVU in the hip pocket). They have good veteran leadership and much like Florida 2006-07, a
fantastic understanding of their individuals roles within the team construct.
I'd never bet against Tom Izzo and
Michigan State in March. They do it every year, and have more than enough talent to get back to yet another Final Four.
If
Ohio State gets back a healthy Even Turner they can be a real sleeper. I thought they were a legit third contender to win the Big Ten before the injury, and are of course a completely different team without him. Unfortunately Turner might return a little too late to salvage a decent seed.
I like
Wisconsin's chances getting back to the dance as well. Every year Wisconsin is supposed to be down. Every year Bo Ryan's Badgers defend on the court, defend their home court, and defend their NCAA consecutive appearance streak. It's going to happen again this year.
The Unknown:Tubby has had a tumultuous off season with his
Minnesota Gophers and a rough November. Consecutive losses to Portland, Texas A&M and Miami dropped them off the national radar and left them with only a quality win over Butler for the resume. They are 10-3 and healthy and poised to make a run. I think Tubby's Gophers get it going and finish a solid 5th.
I'm not sure what to make of
Illinois. My gut feeling is they are on the outside looking in come March. They've lost to Bradley, a bad Georgia team and a terrible Utah club. Those are going to be tough losses to overcome without ten wins in conference. The opening win over Northwestern helps, but I think they come up short.
Speaking of
Northwestern, the Wildcats made their first appearance in the Top 25...and promptly followed it up with a loss to the Illini. Sentiment has me pulling for the Wildcats. Logic tells me they come up just a bit short...again. Check out the upcoming schedule: @ Mighigan, Wisconsin, Purdue, @Ohio State, Illinois, @Minnesota, @Michigan State. Wow. Win even three of these and we'll talk tourney. Find me three games they will be favored in on that slate...
Penn State is a major disappointment to me. The Nittany Lions and Talor Battle just haven't conjured up the magic this year. Early losses to Tulane and NC Wilmington put a ton of pressure on them to go over .500 in conference. It ain't happenin'
Michigan remains the biggest enigma. They are easily tourney-talented. Then the lose their opener to Indiana. Not a way to statr if you have serious aspirations in March. They are 6-6 with a bad loss to Utah and questionable losses to Alabama and Indiana. That leaves a lot of work to do in Ann Arbor. And fast.
The BAD:Indiana is at
least worth watching this year. They play well at home and will likely pick up a handful of conference wins this year. The loss of Maurice Creek hurts, and it is tough to see this young Hoosier team winning many on the road. After all, surprising wins over Pitt and Michigan aside, this is a team that lost to Boston U, George Mason and Loyola (Md). No postseason this year, but the future is bright in Bloomington.
Um, not so much in
Iowa. The Hawkeyes are terrible. They've lost to Texas-San Antonio, Iowa State, Northern Iowa, Duquesne...and they are going to lose to every single team in the Big Ten at least once.
Final Score:Purdue, Michigan State are Top 4 seeds. Ohio State gets Turner back in time to get in, Wisconsin and Minnesota earn bids.
Michigan and Illinois spend a rocky few weeks on each side of the bubble. I think the Wolverines get it together just in time to slip in as the 6th Big Ten team while Illinois joins Northwestern in NIT.
Penn State, Indiana and Iowa - make early March tee times.
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